Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 7 February 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy higher on weather concerns in Argentina and US inflation talk. Corn higher as per soy. Wheat higher on a wave of inflationary sentiment, equity implosion, and signs of fund short covering.
• US weather forecast for the Midwest sees the intense chill giving way to more seasonal temperatures into the weekend and next week. Snow will continue to fall along the southern edge of the front, with the heavier amounts falling in central Illinois and Iowa.
• US weather forecast for the Southwest continues to see normal temperatures through the next week, with rains in the SE over the next few days. Northern plains will see extremely cold temperatures with sub-zero readings in many areas.
• US latest 11-16 day forecast has warmer than normal temperatures in the Western and Eastern portions of the US, with normal readings in the Midwest. Rainfall will be below normal throughout most of the US from Feb-16-20.
• China may have handed US farmers a good reason to maintain or increase corn and soy acreage, as the current ‘probe’ into sorghum imports invokes memories of the DDG’s investigation, which ended a year ago, with China imposing tariffs on imports and dropping levels by 90%
• Egypt’s wheat imports are running 34% higher y/y, with a total of 5.21mln t purchased so far this season, with 81% (4.195mln t) sourced from Russia.
• USDA attaché reports Brazilian 2017-18 corn production lower at 92mln t, mainly due to reduced area for both the 1st and 2nd crops, and a return to normal yields (current USDA forecast is 95mln t).
• CNGOIC sees the China corn production deficit of 25.6mln t for the 2017-18 season, which is larger than previously believed. Consumption was bumped up to 244mln t vs the production at 216mln t.
• USDA monthly report is released tomorrow afternoon 1700GMT.

Last Trade Settlement:
London May ’18 Settle £138.35/t – up £1.10/tonne from previous close - traded at yearly low of £136.00 during the session
Paris May ’18 Settle €161.00 – up €1.25/tonne from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Corn Settle $3.6350/bushel – up 4.75 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Wheat Settle $4.4625/bushel – up 6.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1265
GBP USD 1.3925
EUR GBP 0.8870
EUR USD 1.2355