Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 7 November 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy higher on talk of drier Brazilian weather, good US exports and that the US crop may be smaller than forecast. Corn unchanged as talk of higher US yields/crop and slow US export pace offers resistance to prices. Wheat higher on short covering.
• NASS reported 70% of the corn crop harvested, up from 54% last week vs 84% last year and 83% as 5-yr average.
• NASS reported 90% of the soy crop harvested, up from 83% last week vs 92% last year and 91% as 5-yr average.
• NASS reported US winter wheat crop was 91% planted, up from 84% last week, vs 90% last year and 91% as 5-yr average with 75% of the crop emerged, up from 65% last week, vs 78% last year and 77% as 5-yr average.
• NASS reported the US winter wheat crop condition as 55% good/excellent, up 3% on the week, but lower than the 58% of a year earlier.
• US Midwest weather saw heavy rains/high winds in parts of Indiana/Ohio over the weekend. Forecast for the week looks drier with temperatures slightly below average. US Northern Plains weather will be colder than normal this week with a drier trend. US Delta weather will see normal temperatures with steady rain through the week. Total 7 days accumulation seen around 1-1 ½ inches.
• Pakistan Government may approve 2mln t of wheat exports after their surplus reaches 9mln t. Pakistani Government estimates their 2018 production at 26.5mln t.
• Bangladesh’s wheat imports climbed nearly 30% to more than 2.1mln t from July-October y/y, as the country emerges as a major buyer after floods destroyed much of its latest wheat and rice crops.
• Russia’s Ag Ministry estimates the Russian wheat crop at a massive 87.9mln t compared with 75.8mln t last year, with 99% of the crop harvested.
• Ukraine’s Ag Department has cut corn yields by 11% to 4.9t/ha, compared with 5.5t/ha previously. Total production was lowered to 24mln t from 24.5mln t previously.
• UK LIFFE holds steady amidst a fluctuating £ sterling value, having gained back the majority of losses post-interest rate rise last week. Physical feed wheat prices have seen little movement generally over the past 3-4 weeks.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £138.70/t – up £0.55/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €162.75 – up €0.75/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.4800/bushel – down 0.25 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.3075/bushel – up 5.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1365
GBP USD 1.3150
EUR GBP 0.8795
EUR USD 1.1565