Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 7 September 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – Soybean prices stabilised in a tight trading range. Corn marginally higher after trading both sides. Wheat lower on Russian ruble weakness and talk of needed rains entering both the Ukraine and southern parts of Russia.
• US has been the best source for thrifty corn and soybean buyers in recent months, and the low prices & ample supply combination, allowed US exporters to continue their string of record months in July.
• US Midwest weather forecast looks to have more rains moving through the region over next couple of days, then looking to turn drier next week. Temperatures still seen 70’s-90’s (ish).
• US 11-16 day forecast has above average rains for the northern Midwest, average rains in the south, below average rains for the Plains. Temperatures for all regions running close to average.
• Brazil’s industry group Abiove, revises up its 2018 soybean export forecast to a record 76.1mln t, up 3.5mln t from its previous prediction. Output also seen edging higher to 118.8mln t.
• Brazil’s transportation regulator has raised minimum truck freight rates by 5% on average, a move that an exporters’ group estimated would cost the country’s grain sector 3.4bln reals ($818mln).
• Argentina’s BAGE reported the 2018 corn harvest completed, and a slight improvement in the condition of the 2018-19 wheat crop, up 1% good/excellent on the week, although rains in the north/north eastern regions is needed.
• In August 2018, Russia exceeded the monthly grain export record for that month, as exports totalled 5.33mln t (excluding leguminous crops).
• UK futures dipped sharply yesterday following the press release that Vivergo proposes to cease production at the end of September, before bouncing off the lows of the day.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £175.25/t – down £2.10/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €198.25 – down €1.50/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.3925/bushel – up 1.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.6625/bushel – up 1.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.1375/bushel – down 8.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1105

GBP USD 1.2935

EUR GBP 0.8995

EUR USD 1.1640