Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 8 November 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – soybeans lower on talk Argentina is ready to start up meal exports to China. Corn lower on talk of higher Ukrainian exports. Wheat lower as earlier reported reductions in Russian exports were rectified by the Ag Min, eroding early session gains.
• US Midwest weather forecast has light snow falling across central/northern areas tomorrow, with things running dry/cold elsewhere, as moderate rains may fall in the south early next week. Temperatures will be running below average.
• US Southern Plains weather forecast still sees light to moderate rains to most of the region, things then quiet down for the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will be running near average.
• Brazil weather forecast is for hit and miss rains to the north with mainly dry weather elsewhere over the next 5 days. The 6-10 day forecast has soaking rains for most areas with coverage around 85%.
• Argentina weather forecast is dry for the rest of the week, until a strong system brings moderate/heavy rains over the weekend and early next week. Drier weather due to return the second half of next week.
• China’s top grain producing region slashed its 2018 subsidies for corn growers to almost nothing, while doubling soybean subsidies in an attempt to encourage farmers to switch from corn to other crops like soybeans.
• Ukraine’s ProAgro increased their 2018 grain production to 69mln t with corn output up 12% to 34.5mln t. They estimate exports up 13% to 26.5mln t compared with the latest USDA projection of 25mln t.
• The Russian Deputy Ag Minister clarified their Russian grain export potential at 39mln t with wheat exports at 35mln t, reversing earlier reports that export estimates had been lowered to 35mln t.
• USDA releases their monthly S&D report tonight @ 1700 GMT with the normal global S&D.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £168.75/t – up £0.75/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €201.25 – unchanged from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.6775/bushel – down 4.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.7225/bushel – down 1.00 cent/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.1025/bushel – down 1.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1485

GBP USD 1.3120

EUR GBP 0.8700

EUR USD 1.1420