Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 9 July 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – soybean higher on ‘bargain buyer’ on ‘sell the rumour, buy the fact’ action with tariffs already priced into the market. Corn higher on spill over from soybeans and meal helped support. Wheat higher on support from other markets & a weaker US$.
• US Midwest weather forecast sees temperatures edging higher early this week, with heat and humidity levels returning. Precipitations will be below normal for most of the week.
• US Southern Plains weather forecast sees mostly dry conditions with heat building into the mid 90’s over the next week.
• Import duties on Chinese goods ($34bln) started 12.01am on Friday in Washington, 12.01pm in China. Another $16bln of goods could follow in the next two weeks, Trump reported, before suggesting the final total could eventually reach $550bln.
• Argentina’s 2017-18 soy harvest ended at 36mln t, the BAGE said last week, below the 54mln t estimated at the beginning of the season due to a severe drought. This year’s crop is the smallest of the past 9 years according to the exchange.
• FrenchAgriMer reported French soft wheat crop 3% harvested a/o July 1st, vs 5% a year earlier, with the crop reported as 73% good/excellent vs 74 % a week earlier. Corn crop seen as 74% good/excellent, unchanged on the week.
• France had the fifth-hottest June on record since 1900, with temperatures averaging 20.1C (1.6C above average) with the last 10 days the hottest, 2.3C above normal. Rainfall was 11% above normal for June.
• UK Barley/OSR harvest started in the south/SE of the country towards the end of last week,78 following warm and dry conditions over the last month for all areas.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £171.90/t – down £0.15/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €188.25 – down €1.50.tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.9450/bushel – up 38.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.7300/bushel – up 8.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.3000/bushel – up 10.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1335

GBP USD 1.3350

EUR GBP 0.8820

EUR USD 1.1775