Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - Tuesday 14th February 2017

ADM Agriculture

Member
Trade
Location
Lincolnshire
  • US markets – soy lower on talk of slower Chinese demand, better SAm weather, higher US$ and profit taking – Corn up on better export figures and talk of lower US acreage – Wheat up on continued short covering, talk of crop emerging earlier than normal, leaving crop vulnerable to stress if rains are less than normal / late freeze.

  • Snow, avalanches, rain delaying grain movements to US ports – severe weather has slowed rail deliveries of crop to the Pacific NW sending freight rates soaring, prompting Asian buyers to seek ‘fill-in’ loads as they wait for the backlog at ports to clear.

  • ABARES raises its wheat production forecast for the Australian 2016-17 crop to a record 35.1mln t, up from the December estimate of 32.6,mln t, and 24.2mln t last year.

  • USDA attache sees China’s 2016-17 corn imports at 2mln t vs official USDA forecast of 3mln t.

  • SAm weather – Argentina has a weather front stalled in Santa fa / Entre Rios regions – Brazil on and off showers in south, tropical rains seen for Mato Grosso, Goias, Mato Grosso de Sol with limited rains in San Paulo and Minas Gerias.

  • EU MATIF prices closed higher on a slightly weaker Euro, an improved French port vessel line-up, ongoing strong spot Russia prices and reports of an ‘ice-crust’ in Ukraine which may slow shipments

Last Trade Settle:

London May ’17 Settle £148.30/t – down £0.15/t from previous close

Paris May ’17 Settle €175.00 – up €1.50/t from previous close

CBOT Mar ’17 Corn Settle $3.7550/bushel – up 1.00c/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’17 Wheat Settle $4.5225/bushel – down 3.25c/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1785
GBP USD 1.2515
EUR GBP 0.8480
EUR USD 1.0620
 

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