Gleadell Daily Grain Comments 11 January 2019

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soybeans lower on higher-than-expected Brazilian crop estimate. Corn lower as Brazilian crop estimates came in above trade expectations. Wheat lower on soy/corn weakness and spill-over disappointment from this week’s Egyptian tender.
• Brazilian weather sees decent rainfall for the south on up to the northwest over the near term. Northeast remains with limited rains. The 6-10 day forecast now has limited rains for central Brazil, with average rains in the south and up into the far northwest.
• Argentine weather does not quit with the call for ample rains today in most areas continuing into the weekend in the north. The 6-10 day forecast continues with decent rains for the growing regions.
• Brazilian crop agency CONAB cut its forecast for the 2018-19 soybean harvest from 120.1mln t to 118.8mln t, as hot dry weather hurts plant development, although the corn crop estimate was raised slightly from 91.1mln t to 91.2mln t.
• BAGE pegged Argentine soybean planting progress at 96.1% complete, up from 89.1% last week. Corn plantings at 86.1% complete, up from 82.7% last week, with the wheat harvest seen 95.6% complete leaving their crop forecast unchanged at 19mln t.
• Beijing gave five genetically modified crops (GM) the green light for import, as many market participants see China’s approval, which includes both corn and soybeans, as one more step towards finally ramping up purchases of US grains and oilseeds.
• Ukraine’s grain exports have risen to 24.1mln t so far in the 2018-19 season, a/o Jan 9th from 21.2mln t at the same time last year, with the ministry saying exports could rise to 47.2mln t, up from 39.4mln t the season before.
• The EU has awarded all of the duty-free Ukrainian maize imports available for 2019, official data showed, in the first bidding round of this year’s quota.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £177.75/t – down £0.65/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €204.75 – down €1.50/tonne from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Soybeans Settle - $9.0675/bushel – down 17.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Corn Settle - $3.7625/bushel – down 5.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Wheat Settle – $5.1375/bushel – down 6.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1075

GBP USD 1.2760

EUR GBP 0.9025

EUR USD 1.1520