Gleadell Daily Grain Comments 21 March 2019

ADM Agriculture

Member
Trade
Location
Lincolnshire
  • US markets – soybeans higher as traders await fresh developments from US/China trade talks. Corn marginally higher as per soybeans. Wheat higher, led by the MGE, as support was seen tied to fears that flooding could cause some acreage losses in spring wheat sowings.
  • US trade representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, plan to travel to China next week for another round of trade talks with Chinese vice premier Liu He.
  • US and Brazil have agreed to steps aimed at lowering barriers to Ag trade, focusing on wheat, pork and beef, with Brazil allowing the US to export 750,000t of wheat with no tariff.
  • US Mid-west weather has good rains seen for the plains this weekend, which moves into the south early next week. Middle of the week looks dry until another system brings rains to the south and snow to the north. Temperatures warming to average, before turning colder.
  • US Delta/Southeast weather will see little to no rain of significance through Saturday, with light to moderate rains returning to the regions into Tuesday next week, before a spell of drier weather is seen with some precipitation possible next weekend.
  • Brazilian weather forecast sees no major changes, as rainfall through most of the growing regions over the near term shifts more towards the north over the 10 day period.
  • Argentine weather forecast sees a mainly dry pattern for the growing areas over the next 10 days.
  • Brazil’s Ag Minister threw confusion into the apparent US wheat deal, by later citing that all origins would be eligible, although this then drew complaints from Argentina, as under Mercosur regulations, Brazil must request permission to put such a deal in place.
  • Ukraine’s corn sowing area is seen to rise to 4.63mln ha in 2019 from 4.58mln ha in 2018.
  • Kazakhstan plans to increase its quota for wheat exports to China to 1mln t per year, the Vice Minster of Agriculture reported, planning to achieve the set target within three years.
  • Morocco will significantly increase grain imports this year as the country faces the smallest harvest since 2016 due to drought conditions, with total grain output as much as 40% down y/y.
Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £163.75/t – up £0.15/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €189.00 – down €0.25/tonne from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Soybeans Settle - $9.0600/bushel – up 2.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Corn Settle - $3.7150/bushel – up 0.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Wheat Settle – $4.6475/bushel – up 8.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1535

GBP USD 1.3150

EUR GBP 0.8660

EUR USD 1.1395
 

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