Gleadell Daily Grain Comments 28 March 2019

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soybeans lower on concerns over no trade deal yet, increased South American 2019 supply and slowdown in global economies. Corn lower on talk of a drier Midwest 30-day outlook. Wheat virtually unchanged, as trade is not expecting much bullish USDA data.
• There is no news concerning US/China trade talks. USDA acreage will not include updates due to flooding, as April weather will now be an additional focus with El Nino like conditions suggesting more cool and wet weather.
• US corn market focus is the near record managed fund short position, versus a cool and wet US spring, and talk China will be a buyer of US corn and corn products.
• US Mid-west weather forecast has a system bringing good rains to most of the region through the weekend, turning quiet early next week before another system moves through with good rains for the majority of the region. Temperatures seen running below average.
• US Plains weather forecast has a system bringing rains to the northern region tomorrow, turning quiet over the weekend and early next week, before another system brings rain/snow to the region by middle of next week. Temperatures seen cooling to below average.
• US Delta and southeast will see mostly dry weather, with the next round of precipitation occurring this weekend with mostly light amounts, before another several-day stretch of mostly dry weather return to most areas.
• Brazilian weather forecast had large parts of central and southern Brazil drying down during the next two weeks, while rain is concentrated on northern Brazil.
• Argentine weather forecast through the next two weeks still has much of the country continuing to dry down.
• French wheat prices weakened yesterday, after Egypt shunned French wheat in their tender, purchased 120,000t of US wheat. Also pressured by favourable crop condition, as plants come out of dormancy with 85% of the crop in good/very good condition.
• Ukraine’s grain exports through to March 27th seen at 36.7mln t, up 23% y/y, with corn exports seen at 19.5mln t, up 66% y/y. Wheat exports at 13.9mln t, down 4.9% y/y, and barley exports at 3.3mln t, down 19% y/y.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £164.25/t – down £0.20/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €186.50 – down €1.50/tonne from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Soybeans Settle - $8.8750/bushel – down 13.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Corn Settle - $3.7375/bushel – down 3.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Wheat Settle – $4.6950/bushel – up 0.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1675

GBP USD 1.3140

EUR GBP 0.8560

EUR USD 1.1250