Gleadell Grain Comments 7 March 2019

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soybean lower as no comments on US/China trade or new purchases of US products left market void of positive news. Corn lower as per soybean, although US weather may delay fieldwork ahead of sowing. Wheat lower despite talk of Iraqi trade.
• China has ramped up pressure on Canada by restricting canola purchases, further straining bilateral relations, after claims of pests and bacteria were found in a shipment.
• US Mid-west weather forecast has a strong low bringing rains to the plains and southern areas by the weekend, with snow for the north. Below average temperatures gives way to moderate to average temperatures by the weekend, and first half of next week.
• US Delta and southeast weather forecasts still has a couple of rain systems over the next two weeks that will temporarily worsen flood conditions, but overall improvements will occur.
• Brazilian weather forecast has moderate rains seen moving through the growing areas over the next 5-10 day period, which may start to bring some notice to harvest delays.
• Argentine weather forecast has good rains moving through the growing areas into the weekend, before quietening down first half of next week with another good rain system seen to move through the region middle of next week.
• Egypt, the world’s largest wheat buyer, aims to harvest 3.6mln t of local wheat this season beginning in April, up from 3.15mln t last year. Country also planned to import 6.2mln t of wheat in 2019-20 compared with 6mln t last year.
• Russia’s Ag Ministry said on Tuesday that it saw its 2019 wheat harvest at between 75-78mln t, and may be raised to 80mln t if conditions continue to be favourable.
• Ukrainian farmers have started sowing early spring grains and leguminous crops in five regions and a/o March 4th had sown 22,500ha of the projected 7.2mln ha.
• Ukraine has exported 28.26mln t of wheat, corn and barley so far this season, up from 23.4mln t in the same period in 2017-18.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £161.70/t – down £0.35/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €186.75 – down €0.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Soybeans Settle - $9.0200/bushel – down 11.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Corn Settle - $3.7250/bushel – down 3.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Wheat Settle – $4.5000/bushel – down 12.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1625

GBP USD 1.3155

EUR GBP 0.8595

EUR USD 1.1310