Good News in the pig trade

[Humble Village Farmer]

I am predicting that, at those German prices, the backlog of pigs will disappear very quickly and mysteriously.

No doubt the non farmers Union will say they fixed it single handed.

 

[Suffolk Serf]

I am predicting that, at those German prices, the backlog of pigs will disappear very quickly and mysteriously.

You're very astute. Do you think some plants will have fewer "breakdowns"?

 

[glasshouse]

Our good news on the pig front: Young lady started coming to the farm couple of years ago for her DofE volunteering, no farming background, realised she loved working with livestock so carried on coming. A few months ago a chap wanted a steer calf off us, against my better judgement we swapped it for a sow and piglets on the basis I would have nothing to do with them, Aoife was made pig manager and has had sole responsibility for them, last week she sold her first batch of pork boxes, the experience has got her a place at Plumpton for September. Feckin sow is back in pig so I guess we are now pig farmers .

View attachment 1019736

My daughter is doing d of e at a goat farm

 

[bitwrx]

I am predicting that, at those German prices, the backlog of pigs will disappear very quickly and mysteriously.

You old cynic, you...

 

[bitwrx]

You're very astute. Do you think some plants will have fewer "breakdowns"?

Entirely coincidental, no doubt.

 

[farmgineer]

View attachment 1020595

this is the current German pig price; notice the big spike in the last few weeks! It’s 20p/kg
Hopefully this will cause the SPP to respond especially as at that price it can’t be cheaper to import it with delivery on that cost

Weird how the same spike happened 12 months before it too, is there something driving demand at this time of year

 

[puntabrava]

I just eat my own , its awesome pork , beautiful.

They don’t call you the Ron Jeremy of the borders for no reason

 

[puntabrava]

@spin cycle you need a certain amount of worldlyness to get that

 

[Chieftain]

Weird how the same spike happened 12 months before it too, is there something driving demand at this time of year

Last years spike was a result of Covid panic buying I'd presume, although there's always a bit of a dip in Jan/Feb which recovers in March. What's more interesting to me is that the SPP hasn't fallen more despite all the backlog. Not sure there's anything to read from it, just strange that supply and demand has bottomed out so high above the continental price.

Just hope we can keep the pig herds, specifically the independents, afloat.

 

[Pan mixer]

Last years spike was a result of Covid panic buying I'd presume, although there's always a bit of a dip in Jan/Feb which recovers in March. What's more interesting to me is that the SPP hasn't fallen more despite all the backlog. Not sure there's anything to read from it, just strange that supply and demand has bottomed out so high above the continental price.

Just hope we can keep the pig herds, specifically the independents, afloat.

The continental price is calculated slightly differently from ours, transport is paid by their processors and there is a bonus payment (I understand) to be added to their price too which is not the case for us.

Also there is some transport cost to be added - should the pigmeat end up here which has to be factored in on top of their price.

 

[JP1]

Last years spike was a result of Covid panic buying I'd presume, although there's always a bit of a dip in Jan/Feb which recovers in March. What's more interesting to me is that the SPP hasn't fallen more despite all the backlog. Not sure there's anything to read from it, just strange that supply and demand has bottomed out so high above the continental price.

Just hope we can keep the pig herds, specifically the independents, afloat.

Sadly the reality is many independents are still culling or halving their breeding herds in the last week

 

[bitwrx]

After my optimism last week, we've been trimmed 20% for next week.

 

[Suffolk Serf]

After my optimism last week, we've been trimmed 20% for next week.

Reading between the lines, the processors aren't too keen on the marketing groups. Maybe they're cutting back the group supplied pigs more than those supplied independently?

 

[Chieftain]

Reading between the lines, the processors aren't too keen on the marketing groups. Maybe they're cutting back the group supplied pigs more than those supplied independently?

Interesting you say that, what gives you that impression? I’d have thought they’d love marketing groups in terms of being able to push prices down and turn down stock when they’re getting a cheaper abroad shipment

 

[Suffolk Serf]

Interesting you say that, what gives you that impression? I’d have thought they’d love marketing groups in terms of being able to push prices down and turn down stock when they’re getting a cheaper abroad shipment

In my experience, when I was in desperate need of a finished pig supply contract a couple of months ago, the marketing groups all failed miserably. However, an approach from an individual agent produced the goods.
I think you're right though, that when prices are on the way down, it might suit the processors to deal with the groups and screw them.
However, now that the job looks like turning, and finished pigs become more scarce, the potential for the marketing groups to have the edge over the processors is too much for the processors, who would in those circumstances prefer to deal with a more disparate and uncoordinated bunch of individual producers.
I am told that some of the processors might have given notice to terminate contracts with one or two marketing groups.

 

[bitwrx]

I agree with @Suffolk Serf, regrettably.

If I was a ruthless processor, I'd be using the current oversupply to erode the power of the marketing groups. Then when supply tightens - and the marketing groups control a smaller number of pigs - they won't be able to hold the processors so tightly over a barrel.

 

[Nukemall]

United we stand divided we fall.

Once we lose the ability of the marketing groups to switch a portion of the supply from one processor to another where is the pressure for a rise in the spp going to come from?
If we all individually supply a processor on contract with the last 20% of their kill, the other 80% being supplied by their own pigs at a price they can manipulate, we lose what little control over the market that we have. There is no point them bidding more for pigs because they are all contracted elsewhere.
There is only one reason that the processors want to see the marketing groups gone, and its not for our benefit.
The other option is longer term cost of production contracts, like the milk job, but ultimately they will only offer those until they can supply the same from their own units, and then you will be cut loose.

 

[bitwrx]

[snip]
The other option is longer term cost of production contracts, like the milk job, but ultimately they will only offer those until they can supply the same from their own units, and then you will be cut loose.

This is something our business is only too familiar with. Aligned contract since 2013, big retailer, processed by a big processor. COP element in the pricing to help us through the lean times, tempered by a maximum margin to give it back in the good times.

We were served notice in Q3 last year, and now send the same pigs to the same processor for about £4k a load less. It's crippling. I know that the pigs owned by the same processor are going through the abattoir at much closer to our former contract price.

Hate to say it, but the "sell live to thrive" boys do appear to have a point. Although clearly in the pig industry, that ship has sailed.

 

[Suffolk Serf]

United we stand divided we fall.

Once we lose the ability of the marketing groups to switch a portion of the supply from one processor to another where is the pressure for a rise in the spp going to come from?
If we all individually supply a processor on contract with the last 20% of their kill, the other 80% being supplied by their own pigs at a price they can manipulate, we lose what little control over the market that we have. There is no point them bidding more for pigs because they are all contracted elsewhere.
There is only one reason that the processors want to see the marketing groups gone, and its not for our benefit.
The other option is longer term cost of production contracts, like the milk job, but ultimately they will only offer those until they can supply the same from their own units, and then you will be cut loose.

I agree. I gave a particular marketing group a long time to find a contract for my pigs. Unfortunately it came to a point where I had overweight pigs increasing in number weekly and no outlet that an individual stepped in and found me an outlet, embarrassingly easily.

 

[Nukemall]

I agree. I gave a particular marketing group a long time to find a contract for my pigs. Unfortunately it came to a point where I had overweight pigs increasing in number weekly and no outlet that an individual stepped in and found me an outlet, embarrassingly easily.

Feel your pain, and in your situation we would all have done the same thing, but we know that the abattoir, having secured your pigs, will have rung the marketing group the following week and cut their numbers by that amount saying they had broken down or had staffing issues.