Harvest 2023

[principal skinner]

So, fert at £1k/t, wheat at £250/t for Nov. It doesn’t stack up, when or if, do we think U.K. Gov will come up with a plan to ensure food security going ahead. I’ve heard France are whispering about an export ban, the livestock boys are already feeling the pain of high prices, where does this end? Discuss.

 

[glasshouse]

So, fert at £1k/t, wheat at £250/t for Nov. It doesn’t stack up, when or if, do we think U.K. Gov will come up with a plan to ensure food security going ahead. I’ve heard France are whispering about an export ban, the livestock boys are already feeling the pain of high prices, where does this end? Discuss.

Watch the day after

 

[ewald]

If this is the situation in the autumn, I can see a lot of land not being drilled.

 

[Steevo]

So, fert at £1k/t, wheat at £250/t for Nov. It doesn’t stack up, when or if, do we think U.K. Gov will come up with a plan to ensure food security going ahead. I’ve heard France are whispering about an export ban, the livestock boys are already feeling the pain of high prices, where does this end? Discuss.

The UK govt will come up with a plan the day after it’s too late to do anything about it…..at the earliest!

 

[diesel1]

If I cannot make money at it, will fallow the lot!

 

[Bignor Farmer]

My back of an envelope calculations say that I need roughly £270/t feed to maintain the usual margin a 9t/ha wheat crop and I’ve got to find/risk double the cash to get there. That’s without considering diesel etc.

Should be a profit on 2022 crop but Nov 2023 at £210/t looks a long way short.

At the moment I’m going to sit and watch the futures until August/September and hope they go up a long way before I buy fert or seed. I’m not holding my breath for the government to do anything useful.

The problem is going to be cash. I need to be able to see a decent margin before I go cap in hand to the bank manager (I really don’t want to do this!) But as a tenant farmer I can’t afford to shut the gate. We’re all between a rock and a hard place, interesting times!

 

[MrNoo]

If I cannot make money at it, will fallow the lot!

I think most will, already looking at options now, re fallow ground and what to plant, guess large demand for clover and any legume

 

[MrNoo]

go up a long way before I buy fert or seed.

Surely if ever a time to use HSS is now, am sure the seed boys will double their price for in some cases something that resembles seed cleaner tailings!!

 

[serf]

The UK govt will come up with a plan the day after it’s too late to do anything about it…..at the earliest!

Yep , unless useless is fecked off out of sight and replaced with someone with a clue nothing at all is going to change what he keeps saying , not sure why he is so cock sure and confident in the same carp he keeps coming out with .....

 

[MrNoo]

Yep , unless useless is fecked off out of sight and replaced with someone with a clue nothing at all is going to change what he keeps saying , not sure why he is so cock sure and confident in the same carp he keeps coming out with .....

Playing for time maybe? I'm unsure how anyone can actually be that stupid, a child could see what is about to occur. They are saying that even if Ukraine was able to plant from this day on they only have circa 20% of diesel that they need according to Twitter reports.

 

[serf]

Playing for time maybe? I'm unsure how anyone can actually be that stupid, a child could see what is about to occur. They are saying that even if Ukraine was able to plant from this day on they only have circa 20% of diesel that they need according to Twitter reports.

Heard him on radio this AM ( on playback I think , ) and these arguments were put to him and he just comes out with the same script regardless and just doesn't seem to get it , ,they must be that detached from reality it is unreal ,

sawdust between the ears

 

[glasshouse]

If I cannot make money at it, will fallow the lot!

Hm govt may intervene on that.
Imagine the dailymirror headline
Farmers collect cash but plant nothing while bread goes to £5 loaf

 

[teslacoils]

Well, I'm ok on the cashflow. But if I put out twice the dosh I expect twice the profit. I'll switch into easier crops like spring barley to reduce chem, fert and diesel spend.

 

[Farmer 83563]

So, fert at £1k/t, wheat at £250/t for Nov. It doesn’t stack up, when or if, do we think U.K. Gov will come up with a plan to ensure food security going ahead. I’ve heard France are whispering about an export ban, the livestock boys are already feeling the pain of high prices, where does this end? Discuss.

Dont worry some guys in 'Begging bowls again…' have all the answers

 

[Humble Village Farmer]

Playing for time maybe? I'm unsure how anyone can actually be that stupid, a child could see what is about to occur. They are saying that even if Ukraine was able to plant from this day on they only have circa 20% of diesel that they need according to Twitter reports.

I can't. What is about to occur?

 

[Humble Village Farmer]

It's getting into investor territory, when all the signals are there but the price hasn't moved yet.

People make millions in situations like this on the stock market.

Wheat might be at a historic high but does that mean it's peaked? There are very very few commodities quite so essential.

 

[quattro]

Seems to be quite a few people buying next years fert now!!

 

[Steevo]

Heard him on radio this AM ( on playback I think , ) and these arguments were put to him and he just comes out with the same script regardless and just doesn't seem to get it , ,they must be that detached from reality it is unreal ,

sawdust between the ears

He plays the intelligent dumb fool well. I don’t for a second thing he believes what he says…..but he is paid to trot out a line and make it sound convincing and like he knows his stuff to prevent panic or having to react to world events.

I hate to say it but Michael Gove really does come across like he knows his stuff with some credible things he truly believes in. I just don’t particularly warm to the man and certainly wouldn’t want his radical plans anywhere near agriculture.

 

[glasshouse]

It's getting into investor territory, when all the signals are there but the price hasn't moved yet.

People make millions in situations like this on the stock market.

Wheat might be at a historic high but does that mean it's peaked? There are very very few commodities quite so essential.

It is still dirt cheap

 

[glasshouse]

After the year with no summer in 1816, where constant rain blackened and ruined crops all over the northern hemisphere ,,wheat reached £22 per ton, ie four times a workers annual wage.
About £40,000 per ton at todays values