How have current circumstances affected your view on ELMS?

[Jackov Altraids]

Rather than continuing the criticism of the way ELMS is being set up, I'm wondering how all the other factors that are impacting on agriculture are affecting your future plans.

I think there should be a sustained period of higher demand and prices which should hopefully keep up with inflation whereas any scheme payments won't.

I'm also valuing the freedom to manage land effectively as circumstances change. Increased fertiliser prices will make areas of grass much more in demand.

Perhaps I'm just trying to convince myself, but nothing seems to be encouraging me to join ELMs.

 

[ewald]

Agreed - the thought of signing up for several years to anything at all makes me a bit uneasy.

I feel that flexibility will be important in the medium term

 

[Jackov Altraids]

What I guess I'm saying, is that even a terminally miserable git like me actually feels there are a lot of positive reasons to want to actively farm.
Six months ago all I could see was agriculture being blamed for everyone else's problems, poor trade deals and the loss of financial assistance pushing us into signing up to what ever scheme Defra came up with in a bid to make ends meet.
I'm not sure much has changed but I feel a gap is opening up for a back to basics, lower volume, higher return system that the public will really appreciate.
I think the main obstacle is the high costs we bear from all the tertiary industries we support but receive no support from in return. These high costs are what has driven the necessity to farm high volumes.

 

[teslacoils]

There's no degree of agricultural tripe I wouldnt endure to avoid joining Amy scheme created and administered by the rpa and paid by hm govt.

 

[delilah]

Thing is, current prices are weather. It's climate that affects us more, and I have a deep unease at letting the £3Bn/ yr ELMS money go to the quangos and charities for the next x years simply because we don't need it at this point in time *.
(* and I would say that anyone who does the sums properly will see that they do actually need it today as much as 12 months ago).

 

[spin cycle]

i think the current elms is a 'pig in a poke'..on the other hand i'm now starting a new cs wildlife offer and will need less fert which is a plus possibly

just at the moment i get the feeling that every business related thing....not just food production,,,,,,,is getting to expensive to do TBH

 

[Jackov Altraids]

There's no degree of agricultural tripe I wouldnt endure to avoid joining Amy scheme created and administered by the rpa and paid by hm govt.

I think that will be the case on a financial basis as well as emotional.

The area of land producing food will only reduce. The demand can only increase.
ELMS, climate change, regulation and almost every other factor will accentuate this.

 

[Jackov Altraids]

Thing is, current prices are weather. It's climate that affects us more, and I have a deep unease at letting the £3Bn/ yr ELMS money go to the quangos and charities for the next x years simply because we don't need it at this point in time *.
(* and I would say that anyone who does the sums properly will see that they do actually need it today as much as 12 months ago).

In all seriousness, as things are it would probably be better if that £3billion disappeared rather distort business decisions and allow all the hangers-on and tertiary industries I mentioned before, to be kept in business as a veil for 'supporting agriculture'.

 

[B'o'B]

For us ELMs compared to BPS will at best result in a 50% cut. But to achieve that level of ELMs payment I would have to take 10% of the farm out of production, pay for soil mapping, plant bird seed, plant hedgerow trees etc etc etc.
I think after expenses I would be lucky to end up with 20% (of my current BPS) left.
Does that excite me? No.

 

[DrWazzock]

Its a great feeling and very motivating to drill wheat when its around £200 per ton. Makes you feel like getting out of bed and getting on for a change. ELMS? What's that?

 

[Jackov Altraids]

For us ELMs compared to BPS will at best result in a 50% cut. But to achieve that level of ELMs payment I would have to take 10% of the farm out of production, pay for soil mapping, plant bird seed, plant hedgerow trees etc etc etc.
I think after expenses I would be lucky to end up with 20% (of my current BPS) left.
Does that excite me? No.

I'm afraid too many people view ELMS as a new name and set of criteria to claim 'BPS'.

In most cases, if a neighbour offered a similar deal you would tell them to stick it even though most of us would trust our neighbour to honour the deal with much less hassle.

 

[B'o'B]

Its a great feeling and very motivating to drill wheat when its around £200 per ton. Makes you feel like getting out of bed and getting on for a change. ELMS? What's that?

How about at £120-£150/t?
Current prices may last a couple of years, but will they last longer than that?
What about costs?
Some big changes coming for all of us.

 

[Jackov Altraids]

How about at £120-£150/t?
Current prices may last a couple of years, but will they last longer than that?
What about costs?
Some big changes coming for all of us.

Absolutely.

Does committing land to a scheme give a period of security or does it tie your hands and put you at risk of being left behind?

In the next few years, I see inflation being the biggest risk. It could seriously devalue your annual payment whereas at least your produce would track it to a certain extent.

 

[B'o'B]

I'm afraid too many people view ELMS as a new name and set of criteria to claim 'BPS'.

In most cases, if a neighbour offered a similar deal you wouldn't tell them to stick it even though most of us would trust our neighbour to honour the deal with much less hassle.

You are right, very few people I have talked to have sat down and looked at the effects of ELMs and assume it will be the same as all the other revisions to subs over the last 30 years. ie carry on as before under another name. Unless there is a huge rejig that is not the case this time.

 

[Goweresque]

In the next few years, I see inflation being the biggest risk. It could seriously devalue your annual payment whereas at least your produce would track it to a certain extent.

Why should farmgate prices track inflation in the future? They haven't in the past. Otherwise we'd have £300-400/tonne wheat, not £200, depending on when you picked your starting point. And don't forget wheat was £130/tonne only 2 years ago, and could be again in another 2 years.

Commodity prices rarely keep up with inflation, thats the lesson history teaches us.

 

[Jackov Altraids]

Why should farmgate prices track inflation in the future? They haven't in the past. Otherwise we'd have £300-400/tonne wheat, not £200, depending on when you picked your starting point. And don't forget wheat was £130/tonne only 2 years ago, and could be again in another 2 years.

Commodity prices rarely keep up with inflation, thats the lesson history teaches us.

Absolutely.

But in a free market, costs will often change to reflect a change in circumstance.

If the lamb prices dives, replacements will usually be cheaper etc. and a thousand sheep are still worth a thousand sheep even if their value has changed.

And it is easier to stay 'in the game'. A big rise in costs could make it hard to get re-established after a 5-10 year scheme with lower productivity.

 

[delilah]

And it is easier to stay 'in the game'. A big rise in costs could make it hard to get re-established after a 5-10 year scheme with lower productivity.

100%. But that, surely, is a reason to get ELMS reformed so that you can participate without a cut in productivity, rather than just walking away ?
Current prices are bad news at this point in time, farmers are taking their eye off the long game re the design of ELMS.

 

[Treg]

Farm values have gone up a huge amount in the last 2yrs , what's ELMS worth ? 0.5% if that? That's a insult , devalue your land for pittance their having a laugh .

 

[4course]

I couldnt see any thing in the elms scheme that would entice me to join in a major way when info first became available . Looking at current forward prices that are available cant see us taking up the disadvatage of joining such schemes unless they are altered dramatically ,at least for the next couple of years after that who knows? . With ww and osr getting the current achievable output/acre why bother messing about for a few quid my energies are better spent elswhere.

 

[farmerm]

Its a great feeling and very motivating to drill wheat when its around £200 per ton. Makes you feel like getting out of bed and getting on for a change. ELMS? What's that?

Wheat at £200 if cost of production is £180 is worse than wheat at £120 with costs at £100 Same crap margin but higher risk if crop yields is poor or the price tumbles. The best margin not just wheat price is what gets me out of bed.