How the negotiations are being managed

[Danllan]

It's precisely in date for what Danllan and myself are talking about.



Thought you would say that so here one from the Financial Times There are many, many more pieces like that out there saying the same thing.

https://www.ft.com/content/5b9f2dbe-f66e-11df-846a-00144feab49a

Twist it whichever way you like, but a broken Ireland would have had a big effect on Britain.

No twisting... a broken Iceland would have an effect on the UK, and Ireland would too, more so - something I have never disputed - but you overplay the 'Irish' effect, I understand why, but you overplay it nonetheless. As for the FT, it generally is apolitical and objective in its reporting - but was, and still is, way out in its predictions / editorial in re' Brexit, so I guess you can choose to heed those with a poor track record if you wish...

Nothing to say on the other part of my post?

 

[JohnGalway]

No twisting... a broken Iceland would have an effect on the UK, and Ireland would too, more so - something I have never disputed - but you overplay the 'Irish' effect, I understand why, but you overplay it nonetheless. As for the FT, it generally is apolitical and objective in its reporting - but was, and still is, way out in its predictions / editorial in re' Brexit, so I guess you can choose to heed those with a poor track record if you wish...

Nothing to say on the other part of my post?

The historical facts speak for themselves. The great fear then was contagion spreading, British banks were over exposed to that. All these events were leading on to knock on effects like a game of dominos. To stop that happening, in their own self interests deals were done, including the 7bn loan from the UK to Ireland. The British knew full well to let Ireland go bust would be disaster as so many of the financial organisations were so badly run and so closely linked.

As to the other part, not really, I was addressing the inference around the "loan".

 

[Danllan]

The historical facts speak for themselves. The great fear then was contagion spreading, British banks were over exposed to that. All these events were leading on to knock on effects like a game of dominos. To stop that happening, in their own self interests deals were done, including the 7bn loan from the UK to Ireland. The British knew full well to let Ireland go bust would be disaster as so many of the financial organisations were so badly run and so closely linked.

As to the other part, not really, I was addressing the inference around the "loan".

Yes, the facts do speak for themselves, and no matter how you play them the simple fact is that difficulties in the Irish economy would not spell cataclysm for our, end of story. Depending on which measures you choose to use, the Irish economy is between 8% and 12% of the size of that of the UK; what would be cataclysmic to Ireland could be absorbed by the UK. Sure, it would be uncomfortable in places, but that's it. You really, really are overplaying Ireland's economic significance... (but I still understand why, so don't hold it against you).

With regard to the second bit of my earlier post... I'm fairly sure that 'contagion' will be part of out future discussions in re' Brexit, I'll remind you of this exchange then .

 

[JohnGalway]

Yes, the facts do speak for themselves, and no matter how you play them the simple fact is that difficulties in the Irish economy would not spell cataclysm for our, end of story. Depending on which measures you choose to use, the Irish economy is between 8% and 12% of the size of that of the UK; what would be cataclysmic to Ireland could be absorbed by the UK. Sure, it would be uncomfortable in places, but that's it. You really, really are overplaying Ireland's economic significance... (but I still understand why, so don't hold it against you).

With regard to the second bit of my earlier post... I'm fairly sure that 'contagion' will be part of out future discussions in re' Brexit, I'll remind you of this exchange then .

You used the word cataclysm. I said the loan was given to us in British self interest. International banking is no simple thing. The issue was the effect an Irish collapse would have had internationally. It would have had a terrible effect on British banks, and also on banks of other nationalities, which would have further compounded the effect on Britain. It's not rocket science.

 

[baabaa]

the eu farm commissioner looking for a CETA type deal for the uk
http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/brexit-its-time-for-ireland-to-look-towards-europe/#

 

[Danllan]

You used the word cataclysm. I said the loan was given to us in British self interest. International banking is no simple thing. The issue was the effect an Irish collapse would have had internationally. It would have had a terrible effect on British banks, and also on banks of other nationalities, which would have further compounded the effect on Britain. It's not rocket science.

No, it isn't, but you're overstating things, that's all. I understand why, and it is fair to say that problems in Ireland would probably be worse for the UK than some in e.g. Chile, Egypt or Singapore, despite their having larger economies. But you're simply overstating the case.

Anyway, apart from this getting boring... I think that Ireland is going to be doing as much as it can to ensure a good free trade deal between the UK and the EU. And I am pretty sure that the UK will be a very useful trading neighbour to Ireland when we once again widen our horizons.

 

[JP1]

As many will know, I would still have preferred to remain and reform (and I accept that the EU stance is also grandstanding to up their ante in impending negotiations) but Mr Juncker is starting to get up my nose.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1219223681488906

What I don't think he realises (or maybe not publicly acknowledges) is that if the French go anywhere close to Marine, it's game over and the big € bill won't get settled - by anyone - as the deck of cards will have collapsed.

IMO they should have given DC more and then at least the UK wouldn't be in this Brexit mess - we are out of Schengen and the Euro anyway

 

[wanton dwarf]

As many will know, I would still have preferred to remain and reform (and I accept that the EU stance is also grandstanding to up their ante in impending negotiations) but Mr Juncker is starting to get up my nose.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1219223681488906

What I don't think he realises (or maybe not publicly acknowledges) is that if the French go anywhere close to Marine, it's game over and the big € bill won't get settled - by anyone - as the deck of cards will have collapsed.

IMO they should have given DC more and then at least the UK wouldn't be in this Brexit mess - we are out of Schengen and the Euro anyway

What gets me JP is that Luxemburg is a tax haven ... a massive parasite taking the wealth out of all of Europe.

Luxemburg ought to be targetted by every country to make companies using it as a tax haven to pay their dues to society.

 

[JP1]

What gets me JP is that Luxemburg is a tax haven ... a massive parasite taking the wealth out of all of Europe.

Luxemburg ought to be targetted by every country to make companies using it as a tax haven to pay their dues to society.

Yep but that's the way it's going to go over here too sadly. We already give transfer pricing breaks to many multinationals (many are US) and it's only going to get worse. You look at the Kippers who want their sovereignty and no immigration taking jobs and then they miss their core constituency's main PAYE blue collar workers who pay their dues, get steadily poorer and yet our (rich ) economy cannot afford to run itself as a civilised society

 

[wanton dwarf]

Yep but that's the way it's going to go over here too sadly. We already give transfer pricing breaks to many multinationals (many are US) and it's only going to get worse. You look at the Kippers who want their sovereignty and no immigration taking jobs and then they miss their core constituency's main PAYE blue collar workers who pay their dues, get steadily poorer and yet our (rich ) economy cannot afford to run itself as a civilised society

We'll see what happens.

But I don't expect the current politicians to be any good what-so-ever - I'm talking all parties.

The reason being their failure over the past 40 years to support UK industry & jobs.

It will take several general elections to clear out the chaff from the wheat - interesting times ahead.

 

[JP1]

We'll see what happens.

But I don't expect the current politicians to be any good what-so-ever - I'm talking all parties.

The reason being their failure over the past 40 years to support UK industry & jobs.

It will take several general elections to clear out the chaff from the wheat - interesting times ahead.

Agreed. I'm not enamoured with the latest crop of challengers either