Hunga Tonga Volcano water injection to stratosphere

[wanton dwarf]

Just saw a post on X (Twitter) about the Water levels in the atmosphere as a graphical representation

Looks as though the water has reduced since 2022 under water volcanic eruption but still in larger amounts than prior to 2022

Does this mean the abnormal rains are set to continue through 2025 ? As the water vapour is moving towards the Poles, does this mean increased snowfall & colder weather ?

Short planting season ?

The Aura Mission

Aura is a NASA mission to study Earth's ozone, air quality, and climate and conduct research on the composition, chemistry, and dynamics of Earth's atmosphere.

aura.gsfc.nasa.gov

 

[Gong Farmer]

I think it was @Goweresque who first mentioned this as a cause of the wet seasons. That graph certainly underlines it, and it doesn't look like it's subsiding anytime soon.

 

[essex man]

Just saw a post on X (Twitter) about the Water levels in the atmosphere as a graphical representation

Looks as though the water has reduced since 2022 under water volcanic eruption but still in larger amounts than prior to 2022

Does this mean the abnormal rains are set to continue through 2025 ? As the water vapour is moving towards the Poles, does this mean increased snowfall & colder weather ?

Short planting season ?

The Aura Mission

Aura is a NASA mission to study Earth's ozone, air quality, and climate and conduct research on the composition, chemistry, and dynamics of Earth's atmosphere.

aura.gsfc.nasa.gov

Yes , has been discussed on here already.
It receives little publicity as non human caused climate change is not allowed.
Wettest year ever(only 70 years recs mind) by some margin on this farm 2023, the year following.
Effects to last 7 years.

 

[serf]

Recon

Yes , has been discussed on here already.
It receives little publicity as non human caused climate change is not allowed.
Wettest year ever(only 70 years recs mind) by some margin on this farm 2023, the year following.
Effects to last 7 years.

Exactly this , no eco mileage propaganda to be gained from the green BS crew if this cat was allowed to get out of the bag ....

 

[Yale]

Recon

Exactly this , no eco mileage propaganda to be gained from the green BS crew if this cat was allowed to get out of the bag ....

Not only eco mileage but the channelling of billions to pointless technologies like carbon capture and storage. There are some very powerful organisations which are going to fight to keep net zero on track.

 

[essex man]

Recon

Exactly this , no eco mileage propaganda to be gained from the green BS crew if this cat was allowed to get out of the bag ....

Well if it is warming now then that warming can be blamed elsewhere i.e. on you and your dirty emissions, talking co2 here , not what you do in the toilet.
If the effect is temporary and some cooling occurs in 6/7 years we might be hearing about the volcano a bit more

 

[essex man]

Not only eco mileage but the channelling of billions to pointless technologies like carbon capture and storage. There are some very powerful organisations which are going to fight to keep net zero on track.

Millions of jobs.

 

[FonterraFarmer]

Not only eco mileage but the channelling of billions to pointless technologies like carbon capture and storage. There are some very powerful organisations which are going to fight to keep net zero on track.

You like think its time for the net zero "bull manure" to be ended???

 

[Yale]

You like think its time for the net zero "bull manure" to be ended???

Just an acceptance that net zero has nothing to do with ‘saving the planet’!

 

[CORK]

Just an acceptance that net zero has nothing to do with ‘saving the planet’!

For every problem, there’s an opportunity…..€€€

 

[Macsky]

It speaks volumes of the mainstream media that next to no one has heard of this event. You are only told what they want you to think.

It was huge, produced a plume cloud that ascended to 57km high, over twice the previous record, triggered the most intense lightening storm ever recorded, caused the first mega-tsunami since antiquity, produced the biggest shockwave ever recorded by modern equipment, blew an estimated 150,000,000,000L of sea water into the mesosphere, increasing global stratospheric water vapour by 10%, and may affect the weather for the rest of the decade.

It’s well worth googling for more info, quite fascinating.

 

[C.J]

 

[Macsky]

Just look at the skies, clear days are very rare. The increased vapour will also cause plane’s contrails to be larger and spread further, exacerbating the problem. You can understand how this could lead to warming of the atmosphere.

 

[Bogweevil]

Interesting case - no one is really sure but new research and modelling suggests:

Tonga’s volcanic eruption could cause unusual weather for the rest of the decade, new study shows
Published: May 30, 2024 2.03am BST

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (Hunga Tonga for short) erupted on January 15 2022 in the Pacific Kingdom of Tonga. It created a tsunami which triggered warnings across the entire Pacific basin, and sent sound waves around the globe multiple times.

A new study published in the Journal of Climate explores the climate impacts of this eruption.

Our findings show the volcano can explain last year’s extraordinarily large ozone hole, as well as the much wetter than expected summer of 2024.

The eruption could have lingering effects on our winter weather for years to come.

Usually, the smoke of a volcano – and in particular the sulphur dioxide contained inside the smoke cloud – ultimately leads to a cooling of Earth’s surface for a short period.

This is because the sulphur dioxide transforms into sulphate aerosols, which send sunlight back into space before it reaches the surface. This shading effect means the surface cools down for a while, until the sulphate falls back down to the surface or gets rained out.

This is not what happened for Hunga Tonga.

Because it was an underwater volcano, Hunga Tonga produced little smoke, but a lot of water vapour: 100–150 million tonnes, or the equivalent of 60,000 Olympic swimming pools. The enormous heat of the eruption transformed huge amounts of sea water into steam, which then shot high into the atmosphere with the force of the eruption.

Water vapour in the stratosphere has two main effects. One, it helps in the chemical reactions which destroy the ozone layer, and two, it is a very potent greenhouse gas.

There is no precedent in our observations of volcanic eruptions to know what all that water would do to our climate, and for how long. This is because the only way to measure water vapour in the entire stratosphere is via satellites. These only exist since 1979, and there hasn’t been an eruption similar to Hunga Tonga in that time.

Experts in stratospheric science around the world started examining satellite observations from the first day of the eruption. Some studies focused on the more traditional effects of volcanic eruptions, such as the amount of sulphate aerosols and their evolution after the eruption, some concentrated on the possible effects of the water vapour, and some included both.

But nobody really knew how the water vapour in the stratosphere would behave. How long will it remain in the stratosphere? Where will it go? And, most importantly, what does this mean for the climate while the water vapour is still there?

Those were exactly the questions we set off to answer.

We wanted to find out about the future, and unfortunately it is impossible to measure that. This is why we turned to climate models, which are specifically made to look into the future.

We did two simulations with the same climate model. In one, we assumed no volcano erupted, while in the other one we manually added the 60,000 Olympic swimming pools worth of water vapour to the stratosphere. Then, we compared the two simulations, knowing that any differences must be due to the added water vapour.

What did we find out?
The large ozone hole from August to December 2023 was at least in part due to Hunga Tonga. Our simulations predicted that ozone hole almost two years in advance.

Notably, this was the only year we would expect any influence of the volcanic eruption on the ozone hole. By then, the water vapour had just enough time to reach the polar stratosphere over Antarctica, and during any later years there will not be enough water vapour left to enlarge the ozone hole.

As the ozone hole lasted until late December, with it came a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode during the summer of 2024. For Australia this meant a higher chance of a wet summer, which was exactly opposite what most people expected with the declared El Niño. Again, our model predicted this two years ahead.

In terms of global mean temperatures, which are a measure of how much climate change we are experiencing, the impact of Hunga Tonga is very small, only about 0.015 degrees Celsius. (This was independently confirmed by another study.) This means that the incredibly high temperatures we have measured for about a year now cannot be attributed to the Hunga Tonga eruption.

Disruption for the rest of the decade
But there are some surprising, lasting impacts in some regions of the planet.

For the northern half of Australia, our model predicts colder and wetter than usual winters up to about 2029. For North America, it predicts warmer than usual winters, while for Scandinavia, it again predicts colder than usual winters.

The volcano seems to change the way some waves travel through the atmosphere. And atmospheric waves are responsible for highs and lows, which directly influence our weather.

It is important here to clarify that this is only one study, and one particular way of investigating what impact the Hunga Tonga eruption might have on our weather and climate. Like any other climate model, ours is not perfect.

We also didn’t include any other effects, such as the El Niño–La Niña cycle. But we hope that our study will stir scientific interest to try and understand what such a large amount of water vapour in the stratosphere might mean for our climate.

Whether it is to confirm or contradict our findings, that remains to be seen – we welcome either outcome.

Long-Term Climate Impacts of Large Stratospheric Water Vapor Perturbations

Abstract The amount of water vapor injected into the stratosphere after the eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) was unprecedented, and it is therefore unclear what it might mean for surface climate. We use chemistry–climate model simulations to assess the long-term surface impacts of...

journals.ametsoc.org

Tonga’s volcanic eruption could cause unusual weather for the rest of the decade, new study shows

Our new research predicts how Hunga Tonga’s vast underwater eruption in 2022 will change winters worldwide for years to come – as far away as Australia, North America and even Scandinavia.

theconversation.com

 

[C.J]

In terms of global mean temperatures, which are a measure of how much climate change we are experiencing, the impact of Hunga Tonga is very small, only about 0.015 degrees Celsius. (This was independently confirmed by another study.) This means that the incredibly high temperatures we have measured for about a year now cannot be attributed to the Hunga Tonga eruption.

I would say lower atmosphere warming is in the region of 0.5 degree C

We cannot blame el nino because the last one was much weaker than forecast.

However despite the media telling us it's the hotest ever , the reality is that for those of us with our feet firmly planted on the ground , it's cold wet and miserable.

 

[essex man]

Interesting case - no one is really sure but new research and modelling suggests:

Tonga’s volcanic eruption could cause unusual weather for the rest of the decade, new study shows
Published: May 30, 2024 2.03am BST

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (Hunga Tonga for short) erupted on January 15 2022 in the Pacific Kingdom of Tonga. It created a tsunami which triggered warnings across the entire Pacific basin, and sent sound waves around the globe multiple times.

A new study published in the Journal of Climate explores the climate impacts of this eruption.

Our findings show the volcano can explain last year’s extraordinarily large ozone hole, as well as the much wetter than expected summer of 2024.

The eruption could have lingering effects on our winter weather for years to come.

Usually, the smoke of a volcano – and in particular the sulphur dioxide contained inside the smoke cloud – ultimately leads to a cooling of Earth’s surface for a short period.

This is because the sulphur dioxide transforms into sulphate aerosols, which send sunlight back into space before it reaches the surface. This shading effect means the surface cools down for a while, until the sulphate falls back down to the surface or gets rained out.

This is not what happened for Hunga Tonga.

Because it was an underwater volcano, Hunga Tonga produced little smoke, but a lot of water vapour: 100–150 million tonnes, or the equivalent of 60,000 Olympic swimming pools. The enormous heat of the eruption transformed huge amounts of sea water into steam, which then shot high into the atmosphere with the force of the eruption.

Water vapour in the stratosphere has two main effects. One, it helps in the chemical reactions which destroy the ozone layer, and two, it is a very potent greenhouse gas.

There is no precedent in our observations of volcanic eruptions to know what all that water would do to our climate, and for how long. This is because the only way to measure water vapour in the entire stratosphere is via satellites. These only exist since 1979, and there hasn’t been an eruption similar to Hunga Tonga in that time.

Experts in stratospheric science around the world started examining satellite observations from the first day of the eruption. Some studies focused on the more traditional effects of volcanic eruptions, such as the amount of sulphate aerosols and their evolution after the eruption, some concentrated on the possible effects of the water vapour, and some included both.

But nobody really knew how the water vapour in the stratosphere would behave. How long will it remain in the stratosphere? Where will it go? And, most importantly, what does this mean for the climate while the water vapour is still there?

Those were exactly the questions we set off to answer.

We wanted to find out about the future, and unfortunately it is impossible to measure that. This is why we turned to climate models, which are specifically made to look into the future.

We did two simulations with the same climate model. In one, we assumed no volcano erupted, while in the other one we manually added the 60,000 Olympic swimming pools worth of water vapour to the stratosphere. Then, we compared the two simulations, knowing that any differences must be due to the added water vapour.

What did we find out?
The large ozone hole from August to December 2023 was at least in part due to Hunga Tonga. Our simulations predicted that ozone hole almost two years in advance.

Notably, this was the only year we would expect any influence of the volcanic eruption on the ozone hole. By then, the water vapour had just enough time to reach the polar stratosphere over Antarctica, and during any later years there will not be enough water vapour left to enlarge the ozone hole.

As the ozone hole lasted until late December, with it came a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode during the summer of 2024. For Australia this meant a higher chance of a wet summer, which was exactly opposite what most people expected with the declared El Niño. Again, our model predicted this two years ahead.

In terms of global mean temperatures, which are a measure of how much climate change we are experiencing, the impact of Hunga Tonga is very small, only about 0.015 degrees Celsius. (This was independently confirmed by another study.) This means that the incredibly high temperatures we have measured for about a year now cannot be attributed to the Hunga Tonga eruption.

Disruption for the rest of the decade
But there are some surprising, lasting impacts in some regions of the planet.

For the northern half of Australia, our model predicts colder and wetter than usual winters up to about 2029. For North America, it predicts warmer than usual winters, while for Scandinavia, it again predicts colder than usual winters.

The volcano seems to change the way some waves travel through the atmosphere. And atmospheric waves are responsible for highs and lows, which directly influence our weather.

It is important here to clarify that this is only one study, and one particular way of investigating what impact the Hunga Tonga eruption might have on our weather and climate. Like any other climate model, ours is not perfect.

We also didn’t include any other effects, such as the El Niño–La Niña cycle. But we hope that our study will stir scientific interest to try and understand what such a large amount of water vapour in the stratosphere might mean for our climate.

Whether it is to confirm or contradict our findings, that remains to be seen – we welcome either outcome.

Long-Term Climate Impacts of Large Stratospheric Water Vapor Perturbations

Abstract The amount of water vapor injected into the stratosphere after the eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) was unprecedented, and it is therefore unclear what it might mean for surface climate. We use chemistry–climate model simulations to assess the long-term surface impacts of...

journals.ametsoc.org

Tonga’s volcanic eruption could cause unusual weather for the rest of the decade, new study shows

Our new research predicts how Hunga Tonga’s vast underwater eruption in 2022 will change winters worldwide for years to come – as far away as Australia, North America and even Scandinavia.

theconversation.com

There will definitely be plenty of studies available showing little or no warming effect from the volcano

 

[serf]

Tonga’s volcanic eruption could cause unusual weather for the rest of the decade, new study shows

Thank fek we've got loads of trees and ragwort to eat so we'll be fine

 

[Kidds]

Just look at the skies, clear days are very rare. The increased vapour will also cause plane’s contrails to be larger and spread further, exacerbating the problem. You can understand how this could lead to warming of the atmosphere.

Seems to be cooling us here.
When I read the thread earlier it made me wonder if that was why there seemed to be more contrails of late.
I know they have always been there but they do seem to lead to more cloud than they ever used to. I'm not ready to accept the climate engineering chemtrail theory yet.

 

[Macsky]

Seems to be cooling us here.
When I read the thread earlier it made me wonder if that was why there seemed to be more contrails of late.
I know they have always been there but they do seem to lead to more cloud than they ever used to. I'm not ready to accept the climate engineering chemtrail theory yet.

I think there’s both going on. BBC article recently basically confirming it. But the bulk will be contrails.

 

[red]

I would say lower atmosphere warming is in the region of 0.5 degree C

We cannot blame el nino because the last one was much weaker than forecast.

However despite the media telling us it's the hotest ever , the reality is that for those of us with our feet firmly planted on the ground , it's cold wet and miserable.

Not if those feet were planted in India, Southern Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa etc we however get the flip-side of Climate change