Hunger, Putin's plan

le bon paysan

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Limousin, France
Timothy Snyder
Levin Professor of History at Yale. Author of "On Tyranny," with 20 new lessons on Ukraine, "Our Malady," "Road to Unfreedom," "Black Earth," and "Bloodlands.

Russia has a hunger plan. Vladimir Putin is preparing to starve much of the developing world as the next stage in his war in Europe. In normal times, Ukraine is a leading exporter of foodstuffs. A Russian naval blockade now prevents Ukraine from exporting grain as If the Russian blockade continues, tens of millions of tons of food will rot in silos, and tens of millions of people in Africa and Asia will starve
The horror of Putin's hunger plan is so great that we have a hard time apprehending it. We also tend to forget how central food is to politics. Some historical examples can help
The idea that controlling Ukrainian grain can change the world is not new. Both Stalin and Hitler wished to do so.
For Stalin, Ukraine's black earth was to be exploited to build an industrial economy for the USSR. In fact, collectivized agriculture killed about four million Ukrainians. Notably, as people began to die in large numbers, Stalin blamed the Ukrainians themselves. Soviet propaganda called those who drew attention to the famine "Nazis."
Actual Nazis had related ideas. They liked the idea of controlling Ukrainian agriculture. This was in fact Hitler's central war aim. Hitler wished to redirect Ukrainian grain from the Soviet Union to Germany, in the hope of starving millions of Soviet citizens.
The Second World War was fought for Ukraine and in considerable measure in Ukraine, between dictators who wanted to control food supplies.
Russian memory politics prepared the way for a 21st-century hunger plan. Russians are told that Stalin's famine was an accident and that Ukrainians are Nazis. This makes theft and blockade seem acceptable. Putin's hunger plan is, I believe, meant to work on three levels. First, it is part of a larger attempt to destroy the Ukrainian state, by cutting off its exports.
Putin's hunger plan is also meant to generate refugees from North Africa and the Middle East, areas usually fed by Ukraine. This would generate instability in the EU. Finally, and most horribly, a world famine is a necessary backdrop for a Russian propaganda campaign against Ukraine. Actual mass death is needed as the backdrop for a propaganda contest.
When the food riots begin, and as starvation spreads, Russian propaganda will blame Ukraine, and call for Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine to be recognized, and for all sanctions to be lifted.
Russia is planning to starve Asians and Africans in order to win its war in Europe. This is a new level of colonialism, and the latest chapter of hunger politics.
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
I don’t believe that Putin and his gangster cronies even think that far ahead. They are just doing a smash and grab job in Ukraine and as such are probably completely indifferent to the fate of starving Africans. Putin sees the restoration of Ukraine into the greater Russian Empire as his legacy. Not sure he cares about implications for others. I dint think he’s that sophisticated.
 

le bon paysan

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Limousin, France
I don’t believe that Putin and his gangster cronies even think that far ahead. They are just doing a smash and grab job in Ukraine and as such are probably completely indifferent to the fate of starving Africans. Putin sees the restoration of Ukraine into the greater Russian Empire as his legacy. Not sure he cares about implications for others. I dint think he’s that sophisticated.
I think people have been underestimating Putin for years. I'm just a farmer, a history proff at Yale would have more of an idea.
 

Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
I think people have been underestimating Putin for years. I'm just a farmer, a history proff at Yale would have more of an idea.

Will happen by default, won't it? Mr Putin and the Soviet regime will exploit this part of the war effect for maximum gain. I am just interested at what point does NATO under UN instruction militarily break the blockade?
 

le bon paysan

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Limousin, France
Will happen by default, won't it? Mr Putin and the Soviet regime will exploit this part of the war effect for maximum gain. I am just interested at what point does NATO under UN instruction militarily break the blockade?
Yes.
I feel we are on the brink of a really bad period in history, a new dark age.
Rob continuously tells me I'm wrong about everything, let's hope so hey!
 

Henarar

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Somerset
Not dark here,
20220704_052751.jpg
 

Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
How does Putin gain by starving people in “neutral” developing or third world countries? Surely it just swings more “neutral” third party countries against him?

Or those countries lobby through the UN that the west/NATO should be encouraging Ukraine to come to a settlement to allow normal trading to resume. Cuts both ways - suppose.
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
Or those countries lobby through the UN that the west/NATO should be encouraging Ukraine to come to a settlement to allow normal trading to resume. Cuts both ways - suppose.
Yes cuts both ways, so the overall net effect isn’t much, unless you are poor starving person. Though when did anybody ever care much about that, war or no war?
 

Vader

Member
Mixed Farmer
How does Putin gain by starving people in “neutral” developing or third world countries? Surely it just swings more “neutral” third party countries against him?
Agree he more likely to offer grain and cheap oil/gas to poor countrys to get them on his side.
Meznwhile ruin the west with high food/fuel prices.

Piece in papet over weekend saying russia earning more from oil/ gas than before war started from less volume.
So he got spare to help the poor countrys.

Silly greeb german minister actually said if putin stops gas to germany, then germany goes down, then eu with it soon after from financial collapse.
Even monertary sanctions back firing as russia can not pay its debts off. It has the cash, just sanctions wont let them pay. So investment firms going go have a big hit as can not get their payments.
 

Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
Agree he more likely to offer grain and cheap oil/gas to poor countrys to get them on his side.
Meznwhile ruin the west with high food/fuel prices.

Piece in papet over weekend saying russia earning more from oil/ gas than before war started from less volume.
So he got spare to help the poor countrys.

Silly greeb german minister actually said if putin stops gas to germany, then germany goes down, then eu with it soon after from financial collapse.
Even monertary sanctions back firing as russia can not pay its debts off. It has the cash, just sanctions wont let them pay. So investment firms going go have a big hit as can not get their payments.

The Rouble is 5% stronger than before the war. Sterling is becoming a basket case currency!! Mr Biden and Mr Johnson did say back in February we would all suffer some pain. Hey ho.
 

robs1

Member
The Rouble is 5% stronger than before the war. Sterling is becoming a basket case currency!! Mr Biden and Mr Johnson did say back in February we would all suffer some pain. Hey ho.
Still higher than a year ago against the euro and up a bit today against the dollar
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
We have had to do deals with despots for centuries. The only time we usually go to war is when our own interests are directly threatened.
Now though we seem to be acting as European policeman. Grim as it is in Ukraine I still see it as a “local” issue. A bit of Soviet clawback and general argy bargy between Slavic cousins. It’s not really an invasion of Europe.
I’ve struggled with our involvement and our assuming the moral high ground from day one. We left Afghanistan to the Taliban, probably even engineered it behind the scenes so I’m extremely sceptical about this Ukrainian adventure. Ultimately Zelensky and his mates are in power as the result of a coup. Now they are in open conflict with a superpower who took umbridge to their favoured elected regime in Kyiv being ousted by that coup. Is really our problem and our job to sort it all out, particularly when the solution we are following is just turning the country into a rubble heap and causing untold misery and destruction while further antagonising Russia and stoking the possibility of a wider conflict?
Not every battle or moral argument can be won but it should be an almighty lesson that we neglect our defence and self sufficiency at our peril.
 

Ashtree

Member
Think tank for US government has modelled oil price in various potential Putin scenarios.
One of the scenarios modelled, was Putin ordering a complete shut down of crude oil production, other than for domestic consumption. They forecast $380 to $400 per barrel price range, with an absolute catastrophic effect on western economies.
He might not win militarily due to his shitfest army, but he has other tools of destruction at his disposal.
 

renewablejohn

Member
Location
lancs
We have had to do deals with despots for centuries. The only time we usually go to war is when our own interests are directly threatened.
Now though we seem to be acting as European policeman. Grim as it is in Ukraine I still see it as a “local” issue. A bit of Soviet clawback and general argy bargy between Slavic cousins. It’s not really an invasion of Europe.
I’ve struggled with our involvement and our assuming the moral high ground from day one. We left Afghanistan to the Taliban, probably even engineered it behind the scenes so I’m extremely sceptical about this Ukrainian adventure. Ultimately Zelensky and his mates are in power as the result of a coup. Now they are in open conflict with a superpower who took umbridge to their favoured elected regime in Kyiv being ousted by that coup. Is really our problem and our job to sort it all out, particularly when the solution we are following is just turning the country into a rubble heap and causing untold misery and destruction while further antagonising Russia and stoking the possibility of a wider conflict?
Not every battle or moral argument can be won but it should be an almighty lesson that we neglect our defence and self sufficiency at our peril.
No need to struggle with UK involvement. If you sign up to a protection treaty you do expect the parties who signed the treaty to abide by that treaty.


It just happens to be Ukraine but we could be in the same position if Russia had invaded Belarus or Kazakstan.
 

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