I hope subsidies go........

[7610 super q]

.......and land prices drop, so I can hoover up my neighbours land. That's the undercurrent I notice on here.
But are you sure your the one that'll be doing the hoovering ? Is it just conceivable that your neighbours are making a profit without including subs too ? They could be keeping their mouths shut, and heads down ?
No one hates subs more than me. Especially the way they've been administered. But we're here now, stuck in a 30 year rut. And its a nice little bundle of joy every December isn't it ? A bit of back up to cover a slump in prices, or 2 bad harvests ?
If subs went suddenly, I don't see a quiet hoovering up of land. I predict a bloodbath. 18 months of frantic diversifying into holiday cottages/ wedding venues / organic turnips. Niche market armageddon.

Discuss....

 

[Werzle]

If they gave us a fixed date of when it was going to end , say 2-5 yrs and put us on a even footing by not allowing produce from other countries in that were still receiving sub to under cut us i dont see a problem.

 

[marcot]

You missed out the obvious option ....mass emigration to New Zealand...the land of milk and honey ....check your passports chaps

 

[rob1]

.......and land prices drop, so I can hoover up my neighbours land. That's the undercurrent I notice on here.
But are you sure your the one that'll be doing the hoovering ? Is it just conceivable that your neighbours are making a profit without including subs too ? They could be keeping their mouths shut, and heads down ?
No one hates subs more than me. Especially the way they've been administered. But we're here now, stuck in a 30 year rut. And its a nice little bundle of joy every December isn't it ? A bit of back up to cover a slump in prices, or 2 bad harvests ?
If subs went suddenly, I don't see a quiet hoovering up of land. I predict a bloodbath. 18 months of frantic diversifying into holiday cottages/ wedding venues / organic turnips. Niche market armageddon.

Discuss....

Not sure why in the current situation anyone would want to take on more land, it could be stolen by a labour government, new IHT rues mean it would have to be sold at a pittance to pay death duties or it could become worthless by new environmental rules making it completely uneconomic to farm, glad I have moved away from commodity production so we should be somewhat protected could just hitch up the topper a couple of times a year if we had to to keep the place tidy

 

[Kiwi Pete]

.......and land prices drop, so I can hoover up my neighbours land. That's the undercurrent I notice on here.
But are you sure your the one that'll be doing the hoovering ? Is it just conceivable that your neighbours are making a profit without including subs too ? They could be keeping their mouths shut, and heads down ?
No one hates subs more than me. Especially the way they've been administered. But we're here now, stuck in a 30 year rut. And its a nice little bundle of joy every December isn't it ? A bit of back up to cover a slump in prices, or 2 bad harvests ?
If subs went suddenly, I don't see a quiet hoovering up of land. I predict a bloodbath. 18 months of frantic diversifying into holiday cottages/ wedding venues / organic turnips. Niche market armageddon.

Discuss....

I've noticed the exact same assumption, over and over again....

...countdown to comparisons with NZ, a country completely unlike the UK, in 5, 4, 3, 2....

 

[kiwi pom]

At the end of the day farmers are competing against each other, despite the fact that every thing and everyone else gets the blame.
If subs go it will just change the game a bit. Those keen to expand might get more chances but other kinds of businesses might decide to come to the party too. It’s hard to tell because the UK has so many different types of farmers and landowners.
This idea that Ag will be finished if subs go is ridiculous though.

 

[Yale]

The countryside would become smattered with 2 acres paddocks with a caravan,kids play equipment,scrap cars and junk.

It’s already happening around here on a small scale as townsfolk find a piece of the countryside is now within reach.

The general public need to be careful what they wish for if they value the landscape as it is now.......not just a big pikey camp.

 

[kiwi pom]

You missed out the obvious option ....mass emigration to New Zealand...the land of milk and honey ....check your passports chaps

A potential problem for the Kiwis there, as it stands at the moment farming is either profitable or it’s not done. Add in a couple hundred cashed up poms willing to do it for the lifestyle rather than the money and it could rock the boat a bit.[emoji33]

 

[Tim W]

I am a great advocate of land based subsidies going but also a realist (cynic?) and i don't think you have anything to worry about
There are too many vested interests to allow the cessation of paying people to own land

If subs do go i am in favor of immediate cessation rather than replacement with something else to soften the blow----the threat of sub reduction has been here for a while and if a farmer hasn't made a plan for this then he/she never will

Cold turkey ------

 

[som farmer]

.......and land prices drop, so I can hoover up my neighbours land. That's the undercurrent I notice on here.
But are you sure your the one that'll be doing the hoovering ? Is it just conceivable that your neighbours are making a profit without including subs too ? They could be keeping their mouths shut, and heads down ?
No one hates subs more than me. Especially the way they've been administered. But we're here now, stuck in a 30 year rut. And its a nice little bundle of joy every December isn't it ? A bit of back up to cover a slump in prices, or 2 bad harvests ?
If subs went suddenly, I don't see a quiet hoovering up of land. I predict a bloodbath. 18 months of frantic diversifying into holiday cottages/ wedding venues / organic turnips. Niche market armageddon.

Discuss....

as farmers, we have got used to our subsidy fix, the problem is our buyers have got used to it as well, and how will they react ? very slowly, I suspect.
the reason we get subsidy, is to keep food prices lower, a payment to compensate us for the 'difference'. that purpose is well gone, now its for the environment, and public good, but the buyers have included it in the price they pay us.
what will happen, when or if we leave the eu? nobody really knows, but if subsidy goes, or is replaced by environmental payments, the fact is, a lot of todays ag output will be produced below cop, government, supermarkets, grain buyers won't give a monkey's, all they are concerned with is cheap food, or profit.
there will be a period of consolidation (bloodbath), and those farmers that won't, can't, change will go, bit blunt, but probably true, high rents will take some justifying, cost of production will have to be scrutinised, but the biggest change, I think, is that we will have to produce what the market wants, and not what we think it wants.
our response is, max every sub/environmental payment we can, and reduce our costs as much as we can.

 

[livestock 1]

The two most possible scenarios will likely favour the active farmer in one way or another with some possible trouble along the way. The people who have been claiming sub and not farming will likely not get back into production type farming.

 

[Derrick Hughes]

Stub is ending in Wales in 3 years to be replaced with an Environmental Plan you have to sign up to . I expect the take up will be very low

 

[jondear]

.......and land prices drop, so I can hoover up my neighbours land. That's the undercurrent I notice on here.
But are you sure your the one that'll be doing the hoovering ? Is it just conceivable that your neighbours are making a profit without including subs too ? They could be keeping their mouths shut, and heads down ?
No one hates subs more than me. Especially the way they've been administered. But we're here now, stuck in a 30 year rut. And its a nice little bundle of joy every December isn't it ? A bit of back up to cover a slump in prices, or 2 bad harvests ?
If subs went suddenly, I don't see a quiet hoovering up of land. I predict a bloodbath. 18 months of frantic diversifying into holiday cottages/ wedding venues / organic turnips. Niche market armageddon.

Discuss....

Bad day ?Is it raining in crapweathershire again?

 

[thesilentone]

as farmers, we have got used to our subsidy fix, the problem is our buyers have got used to it as well, and how will they react ? very slowly, I suspect.
the reason we get subsidy, is to keep food prices lower, a payment to compensate us for the 'difference'. that purpose is well gone, now its for the environment, and public good, but the buyers have included it in the price they pay us.
what will happen, when or if we leave the eu? nobody really knows, but if subsidy goes, or is replaced by environmental payments, the fact is, a lot of todays ag output will be produced below cop, government, supermarkets, grain buyers won't give a monkey's, all they are concerned with is cheap food, or profit.
there will be a period of consolidation (bloodbath), and those farmers that won't, can't, change will go, bit blunt, but probably true, high rents will take some justifying, cost of production will have to be scrutinised, but the biggest change, I think, is that we will have to produce what the market wants, and not what we think it wants.
our response is, max every sub/environmental payment we can, and reduce our costs as much as we can.

Wrong !! Subsidy has nothing to do with keeping food prices lower.

We (the manufacturer) have little influence on what is charged on the Supermarket shelves, all we do is keep the supply chain over subscribed, which is buyer Nirvana. Food made in the UK (in World terms) is expensive, and can be purchased elsewhere for considerably less. Bought at a low price from agriculture in the UK, does not always translate to cheap prices for the housewife. It is simply moving our profits onto the Supermarkets balance sheet.

Farming support has been changed and re-administered countless times, and bears no resemblance to what it was originally designed to do.

But, it has played such a major part in farm incomes for so long, it has become a must have, therefore our buyers also take this element of income into consideration when negotiating prices. In addition, the removal (which is inevitable) will be a long, slow process.

Food, water and energy are basic requirements to sustain us, on that basis Brexit should benefit farming in the short-term (post 2021) as the last thing any Government will want it rising inflation or empty supermarket shelves.

The habit of buying in Supermarkets will need to end, now most family businesses sell better quality cheaper, but asking the average buyer to cook maybe a good place to start, maybe the Government should ban microwave ovens !!

 

[SilliamWhale]

Stub is ending in Wales in 3 years to be replaced with an Environmental Plan you have to sign up to . I expect the take up will be very low

I wonder what it will look like. Details soon I think

 

[sgoti]

I cant see subs going completely. What about all the defra/animal health inspectors that all like to keep a chain on us and tell us what to do. They woun't be able to any more! They will all be out of a job!

 

[Top Tip.]

As a proportion of gdp our food in th UK is the third cheapest in the world,remove the sub and that would change dramatically. People have got used to cheap food,tamper with that at your peril.

 

[Surgery]

The countryside would become smattered with 2 acres paddocks with a caravan,kids play equipment,scrap cars and junk.

It’s already happening around here on a small scale as townsfolk find a piece of the countryside is now within reach.

The general public need to be careful what they wish for if they value the landscape as it is now.......not just a big pikey camp.

Nail on the head , I do think you would see a lot of small areas being sold off only to be occupied by the Irish caravan club via being sold by a dodgy a third party

 

[Muddyroads]

I cant see subs going completely. What about all the defra/animal health inspectors that all like to keep a chain on us and tell us what to do. They woun't be able to any more! They will all be out of a job!

This is my view too. Whilst they will no doubt change and drop (as I’m guessing European ones may), nobody has yet been able to tell me how cross compliance will be enforced. It’s so cheap for the powers that be to deduct money first and ask questions later, I fail to see that they will want to go down the route of chasing fines and having to prove fault.
How is this done in NZ?

 

[roscoe erf]

.......and land prices drop, so I can hoover up my neighbours land. That's the undercurrent I notice on here.
But are you sure your the one that'll be doing the hoovering ? Is it just conceivable that your neighbours are making a profit without including subs too ? They could be keeping their mouths shut, and heads down ?
No one hates subs more than me. Especially the way they've been administered. But we're here now, stuck in a 30 year rut. And its a nice little bundle of joy every December isn't it ? A bit of back up to cover a slump in prices, or 2 bad harvests ?
If subs went suddenly, I don't see a quiet hoovering up of land. I predict a bloodbath. 18 months of frantic diversifying into holiday cottages/ wedding venues / organic turnips. Niche market armageddon.

Discuss....

Brexit could /should change everything