IGC Increase Global Grain Production Estimates

[CRM AgriCommodities]

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ UK Balance Sheet Questions The AHDB/Defra September Balance Sheet raised more questions than it gave answers. Wheat ending stock estimates for 2019/20 on paper have been reduced from 3396KT to 2438KT, with a ‘residual’ 824KT. The change to include a ‘residual’ comes as stocks figures and usage data don’t support such large ending stocks. In essence, the 824KT ‘residual’ discrepancy is most likely due to Defra overestimating 2019/20 production. The impact of this tighter on paper Supply and Demand estimate, beyond providing support today will largely be minimal with the UK domestic market already known to be tight and prices being elevated. However, trust in ‘official’ data has been further removed in a year of increased market volatility. Click here for the September Balance Sheet ​ IGC Increase Global Grain Production Estimates Wheat / Barley The IGC in its monthly Grain Market Report is estimating total global grain production at a record 2,230MT, the forecast for world total grains, up by 6MT month-on-month. The figure for the world wheat being little-changed, with higher estimates for Russia and Australia balanced by cuts for Argentina and Canada. The Russian Wheat harvest has reached 93.9% complete, with 84.6MT of wheat harvested. US weekly net sales of 351.2KT for 2020/2021 were up 5% from the previous week, but down 34% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 469.1KT were down 17% from the previous week and 21% from the prior 4-week average. The Philippines USDA GAIN report has lowered its 2020/2021 wheat import estimate to 6.85MT, two percent below the current forecast, due to reduced demand for feed wheat and slower growth in the milling sector. The USDA GAIN report for South Africa has also lowered the estimated wheat import requirement to 1.6MT, down from 1.85MT, a 20% drop due to expected record domestic wheat crop yields. Corn / Maize US weekly net sales of 2.139MT for 2020/2021 were primarily for China (566.4KT). Exports of 845.2KT were primarily to China 204.4KT. The IGC reduced their global corn production estimate by just 6MT to 1160MT due to reductions for the USA, China and the EU, but increases for Argentina and Brazil. Oilseeds & Oil The IGC has maintained their estimate for global soybean production at 373MT, although due to fast paced export trade between the US and China, has increased the global trade estimate by 1MT, also increasing consumption by 1MT. Weekly US net sales of 3.195MT for 2020/2021 were primarily for China (1.879MT). Exports of 1.283MT were primarily to China (769KT). ​ Click here for a Graintab Trial​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Sign up to receive a free trial here.