Input inflation followed by a PRICE CRASH?????? deja vu

[Farmer Roy]

this thread needs a poll

 

[Kiwi Pete]

this thread needs a poll

Will I be throwing much DAP about at $890/tonne + handling and store charges

1. No
2. NO
3. Not f**king likely

 

[warksfarmer]

As expected with world wheat prices high the past 8 months fert appears to be have followed its usual trend creeping upwards along with other costs, are we heading for a repeat of the early 2010s when we had a year or 2 of good prices followed by a price crash and costs taking a long time to drop therefore eroding a lot of the money made in the good years, OR are these prices here to stay this time with demand from China and russian yields down, noone can predict but what are peoples general thoughts on it?

At least 30% off commodity prices within 12 months. The U.K. is going to recover from the virus quickly and the pound will strengthen fast.

 

[glasshouse]

The high wheat price has nothing to do eith brexit

 

[Brisel]

The high wheat price has nothing to do eith brexit

Rubbish. It weakened the £ which drives domestic prices up.

 

[glasshouse]

Rubbish. It weakened the £ which drives domestic prices up.

So the record low harvest had no effect??

 

[Brisel]

So the record low harvest had no effect??

It took the price from export parity to import parity, that’s about £10-12/t on wheat. The rest is from the £ making imports more expensive.

 

[glasshouse]

It took the price from export parity to import parity, that’s about £10-12/t on wheat. The rest is from the £ making imports more expensive.

What rubbish
The pound value has not altered significantly in the last year, yet wheat has risen £40, which just happens to be the difference between import and export parity, not £12.
If anything, the pound has strengthened which would have dropped prices

 

[digger64]

It took the price from export parity to import parity, that’s about £10-12/t on wheat. The rest is from the £ making imports more expensive.

why is the difference between wheat and barley price so much wider this year ?

 

[Brisel]

why is the difference between wheat and barley price so much wider this year ?

It should never have been that wide, so the quick answer is, I don’t know. We are at export parity for barley with more than we consume domestically (though there seems to be none left now). We have been net importers of wheat all season. The difference between export and import parities is around a tenner depending on location. A more normal spread in value between feed wheat and feed barley is £10-15/t based on feed value but it’s not as simple as that. Why has the discount been nearly £50/t? What I’ve said so far suggests £25/t maximum difference. You still need to get it from store to consumer which is why barley occasionally trades at near parity with wheat. Feed usage can’t always be totally switched between wheat and barley (and maize) especially in pig & poultry rations.

Feed barley is a coarse grain, so competes with maize. Wheat futures (in most other countries this is milling not feed) have run much higher than maize for much of the season until China started buying a lot more maize. The maize price has now risen which is why wheat is now competitive into the UK ethanol plants this autumn.

Thats a random diatribe on why there are differences between the two grains, but does not fully answer your question why there has been such a big difference in price. If anyone in the grain trade has a better explanation, I’d like to hear it too!

 

[Brisel]

What rubbish
The pound value has not altered significantly in the last year, yet wheat has risen £40, which just happens to be the difference between import and export parity, not £12.
If anything, the pound has strengthened which would have dropped prices

You should look at Matif, Cbot, Frankfurt etc to see that there are factors outside this country that drive prices. Oh, and currencies too.

 

[glasshouse]

You should look at Matif, Cbot, Frankfurt etc to see that there are factors outside this country that drive prices. Oh, and currencies too.

I was doing that when you were still at primary school.

 

[glasshouse]

As expected with world wheat prices high the past 8 months fert appears to be have followed its usual trend creeping upwards along with other costs, are we heading for a repeat of the early 2010s when we had a year or 2 of good prices followed by a price crash and costs taking a long time to drop therefore eroding a lot of the money made in the good years, OR are these prices here to stay this time with demand from China and russian yields down, noone can predict but what are peoples general thoughts on it?

World wheat price is not high at all.
It should be £400

 

[digger64]

It should never have been that wide, so the quick answer is, I don’t know. We are at export parity for barley with more than we consume domestically (though there seems to be none left now). We have been net importers of wheat all season. The difference between export and import parities is around a tenner depending on location. A more normal spread in value between feed wheat and feed barley is £10-15/t based on feed value but it’s not as simple as that. Why has the discount been nearly £50/t? What I’ve said so far suggests £25/t maximum difference. You still need to get it from store to consumer which is why barley occasionally trades at near parity with wheat. Feed usage can’t always be totally switched between wheat and barley (and maize) especially in pig & poultry rations.

Feed barley is a coarse grain, so competes with maize. Wheat futures (in most other countries this is milling not feed) have run much higher than maize for much of the season until China started buying a lot more maize. The maize price has now risen which is why wheat is now competitive into the UK ethanol plants this autumn.

Thats a random diatribe on why there are differences between the two grains, but does not fully answer your question why there has been such a big difference in price. If anyone in the grain trade has a better explanation, I’d like to hear it too!

Thank you, I as a micro producer / buyer/ user I have been some what perplexed by this , I have had to turn to turn away the odd bits of left over part trailer loads of wheat that I normally grab when they empty their sheds but take the barley and oats.
More frustrating is that they have nearly all tried to drill wheat despite having good barley crops in a difficult time on the basis of this( price difference) which look a better proposition to the outsider than poor mauled in wheat .So next harvest we will probably be short of barley and definately straw.
With the pig situation as it is ,I wonder unless they achieve good yields will they recoup the extra growing costs ?

 

[digger64]

World wheat price is not high at all.
It should be £400

Really the fact that wheat is £200 plus landowners getting area payments means that as a land hirer the short term future looks decidedly grim TBH .

 

[glasshouse]

Really the fact that wheat is £200 plus landowners getting area payments means that as a land hirer the short term future looks decidedly grim TBH .

It wont be£200 after uk harvest and we are back to surplus

 

[digger64]

It wont be£200 after uk harvest and we are back to surplus

Not much winter corn drilled in the east and alot that has been drilled not looking good tbh -never been wetter

 

[glasshouse]

Thank you, I as a micro producer / buyer/ user I have been some what perplexed by this , I have had to turn to turn away the odd bits of left over part trailer loads of wheat that I normally grab when they empty their sheds but take the barley and oats.
More frustrating is that they have nearly all tried to drill wheat despite having good barley crops in a difficult time on the basis of this( price difference) which look a better proposition to the outsider than poor mauled in wheat .So next harvest we will probably be short of barley and definately straw.
With the pig situation as it is ,I wonder unless they achieve good yields will they recoup the extra growing costs ?

The price diff was high till all the maltsters had stolen their needs at a low price, and all the lies about a good harvest were found out, which clive etc said six months ago
Barley is £180 round here for feed

 

[glasshouse]

Not much winter corn drilled in the east and alot that has been drilled not looking good tbh -never been wetter

Where?

 

[7610 super q]

I don't know why we get so ecstatic at £200 / ton.
Can't imagine Henry Ford being gleeful at getting £1200 for a new Ford Focus........