Interest Rates Predicted To Rise Very Soon

cows sh#t me to tears

Member
Livestock Farmer
See, it's not anything like as complicated as it first appears is it? The more you borrow from the future the lower the value of that money when you finally get there.
Your forgetting the most purtinant point. 99% of governments are only there for a short period. They only give a stuff about the Immediate future and getting re elected long enough to get a pension for life. And ALL LEFT wing parties are y far the worst offenders when it comes to economic management.
 

BrianV

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Dartmoor
See, it's not anything like as complicated as it first appears is it? The more you borrow from the future the lower the value of that money when you finally get there.
Great in theory except as any of us know should interest rates start to rise then the interest on the governments massive debt will rise & serious cuts will have to be made, a couple of percentage points rise on two trillion adds up to a fair old bit! = £20 billion extra
 

midlandslad

Member
Location
Midlands
The inflation rates we are seeing should be relative short term, they are based on a global lag in production used by covid, things should catch back up eventually……… assuming we didn’t get another significant covid variant or wave now

everyone is in the same boat globally, nothing has REALLY changed other than the numbers

maybe some short term interest rate rises to try cool things and stop inflation getting out of control but they can not rise much without bankrupting most of the word and individuals as economies are based on debt now

in the meantime borrowing cheap money to buy appreciatIng assets pays handsomely, landowner farmers and those sitting on piles of wheat literally get richer daily right now

question is if it’s time to fixed any variable rate borrowing you may have or not ?
The time to fix loans was spring last year, when the extra rate to do this was 0.3% for long term loans, whereas now it is over 1% extra.

The fixed rate loans will already have priced in the future expectation of rate rises.
 

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
The time to fix loans was spring last year, when the extra rate to do this was 0.3% for long term loans, whereas now it is over 1% extra.

The fixed rate loans will already have priced in the future expectation of rate rises.
agree but expectation is better than certainty re a deal for anyone concerned re variable rate loans

I really can’t see big rises personally and if we do I would expect only temporary until inflation settles a bit

remember inflation and low interest rates suits our government , they are both big borrowers and big asset owners (the biggest in fact !)
 

jackrussell101

Member
Mixed Farmer
Personally I see the current inflationary pressures as more deflationary.

Think back to 2008, inflation was going up, then what happened... they started to increase rates... only by a small percentage... then the economy crashed as consumers and businesses all cut back.

I can't see any reason why it wouldn't be any different this time.

My money would still be pointing towards negative interest rates in the next 10 years.

There is so much money needed to invest in order to decarbonise our economies.

Long term 30 year GILTs were over 1.5% earlier in the week, now they've settled back to 1.3%ish terrority. Still bloody low interest rates all things being equal.

As the saying goes, don't fight the Fed. Or the B of E for that matter. They will do whatever it takes to engineer the economic environment in favour of growth, investment and consumption.
 

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
Personally I see the current inflationary pressures as more deflationary.

Think back to 2008, inflation was going up, then what happened... they started to increase rates... only by a small percentage... then the economy crashed as consumers and businesses all cut back.

I can't see any reason why it wouldn't be any different this time.

My money would still be pointing towards negative interest rates in the next 10 years.

There is so much money needed to invest in order to decarbonise our economies.

Long term 30 year GILTs were over 1.5% earlier in the week, now they've settled back to 1.3%ish terrority. Still bloody low interest rates all things being equal.

As the saying goes, don't fight the Fed. Or the B of E for that matter. They will do whatever it takes to engineer the economic environment in favour of growth, investment and consumption.

i agree, austerity won’t fix this

growth is the only hope and that will not happen under higher interest rates

radical economic thinking required !,,
 

hoff135

Member
Location
scotland
Personally I see the current inflationary pressures as more deflationary.

Think back to 2008, inflation was going up, then what happened... they started to increase rates... only by a small percentage... then the economy crashed as consumers and businesses all cut back.

I can't see any reason why it wouldn't be any different this time.

My money would still be pointing towards negative interest rates in the next 10 years.

There is so much money needed to invest in order to decarbonise our economies.

Long term 30 year GILTs were over 1.5% earlier in the week, now they've settled back to 1.3%ish terrority. Still bloody low interest rates all things being equal.

As the saying goes, don't fight the Fed. Or the B of E for that matter. They will do whatever it takes to engineer the economic environment in favour of growth, investment and consumption.
Can banks operate without people having deposited money with them?

Right now a week is too long to have money in the bank if rates go negative it will be even less.
 

DaveGrohl

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Cumbria
Great in theory except as any of us know should interest rates start to rise then the interest on the governments massive debt will rise & serious cuts will have to be made, a couple of percentage points rise on two trillion adds up to a fair old bit! = £20 billion extra
And?

They just borrow more. No one actually has a clue what the end result of this is, it's never been tried by every country at the same time. Someone somewhere in the world might actually grow a pair and have a go at getting a grip, but they won't be in govt long.
 

teslacoils

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
The western world has printed trillions of $ collectively called Quantitative Easing. Of course those who are more money savvy will invest their share in property. Hence house prices are going up everywhere where their gov'ts have been running their printing presses hot.
Central banks (those controlling interest rates for each nation) require higher rates now as all this money that has sloshed around to cushion the effects of Covid will have to be bought back, some how, some day. They have few other tools to control inflation.

You can control inflation without interest rate rises.

Raising rates does not mean debt is repeated more quickly.

For any nation, there is zero requirement to pay back the debt. You simply refinance it.

With the UK only growing its population through immigration; actually productivity being rubbish and behind most major economies; the idea that we can grow our way out of debt seems unlikely. We can't even get containers of Christmas presents (made in china) out of our biggest port (felixtowe - owned by the Hong Kong via a BVI company) without East European lorry drivers. Where are all the Brits? Ah yes, supergluing themselves to the M25.

Joke country, supported by house prices and a lax view to hiding oligarchs dirty money.
 

thesilentone

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Cumbria
If Bojo is to deliver on what he say's then prices will need to go up, as will inflation, as will incomes.

Along with economic growth, and GDP, supply chain and logistics flowing and whack a few new hospital up.

National debt will need to fall, as will unemployment, and stick it to the French for good measure.

Not much to ask really :ROFLMAO:
 

vantage

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Pembs
If Bojo is to deliver on what he say's then prices will need to go up, as will inflation, as will incomes.

Along with economic growth, and GDP, supply chain and logistics flowing and whack a few new hospital up.

National debt will need to fall, as will unemployment, and stick it to the French for good measure.

Not much to ask really :ROFLMAO:
And the national debt will deflate away!
 

cows sh#t me to tears

Member
Livestock Farmer
Dare I say it. But in times of world crisis. War seems to galvanize and fix economies in the long term. The trouble at the moment with trying to control inflation is that regardless of the country trying, its global inflation. In the main caused by........China. They seem to control the sea freight and container shortage. (Freight rates have gone up 6 fold for Australian imports/ exports.). They control the vast majority of both fertilizer and chemical production. Both of which are being cut back significantly due (allegedly) to the "winter Olympics " and trying to clean up the air in Beijing by limiting factory output by cutting back on electricity.
My gut feeling? Convenient excuse to do what their bioweapon failed to do and bring down the world economy to replace the US as top dog, then look out Taiwan and whomever else they take a fancy too...(Tibet, Vietnam.........)
 

steveR

Member
Mixed Farmer
If Bojo is to deliver on what he say's then prices will need to go up, as will inflation, as will incomes.

Along with economic growth, and GDP, supply chain and logistics flowing and whack a few new hospital up.

National debt will need to fall, as will unemployment, and stick it to the French for good measure.

Not much to ask really :ROFLMAO:
Watch out for low flying 🐖...
 

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