Interest Rates Predicted To Rise Very Soon

[Nitrams]

Not this type of inflation. QE has led to asset inflation not primary goods inflation

Most of that money has ended up in the city

 

[beardface]

Given the current level of borrowing to earnings in the UK I'd say there's as much chance of monkeys flying out of my arsehole, than a significant interest rate rise. It would be complete economic suicide and could lead to the complete collapse of the banks as very few would actually be able to service their debts.

We didn't go through 2008 for nothing. There's ample room (and desire) for more government borrowing to offset inflation. Can see a wealth of loan scheme and government buyout of "essential" industries in the coming year to ramp up domestic production.

The biggest issue with the current inflation bubble is supply. Once covid dies down globally in the new year and the marketplace adjusts I think inflation will level off a fair bit.

Basically there's to much to go wrong right now for the government and BoE to let it go even slightly wrong.

 

[glasshouse]

Interest rates peaked at I think 18% when o was young, far too young to wonder why such things happened.
How and why did they get to those levels back then? Presumably things were out of control? Things don’t seem to be under much control now, could we see such times again? Sure they would be devastating for many, probably were last time around too although I’d have been far too young to understand

The tories wanted to make those with money even richer, and those who had borrowed to invest very poor.
Thats why they did it.

 

[glasshouse]

Lots can't afford their mortgages now at all time record low rates or goodness knows if only go up a couple of points?
The cheapest Mortgages in the nineties were around 14% and we managed???

When a house was £80k

 

[oil barron]

Not this type of inflation. QE has led to asset inflation not primary goods inflation

It’s somewhat responsible for primary goods aswell. Everyone over the age of 18 received cheques from Donald for $3k last year. That’s a lot of cash in the hands of consumers suddenly.

A lot of the primary goods inflation is driven by supply issues as well though due to the government paying people to stay at home rather than working.

 

[oil barron]

Massive QE has been going on round the world for years now. Inflation seems a bit sudden for that to be the cause. There’s no real reason for lack of global production/shipping…… can one COVID case really cause the complete closure of one of the biggest Chinese ports? Was cement/plaster production really that hampered by COVID as an example?
I’m not so sure it’s all as simple as you make out but if you’re trading, no matter, go with the flow….. just look out for the surprises.

The level of QE in the last 18 months is exponentially higher than ever before.

 

[milkloss]

The level of QE in the last 18 months is exponentially higher than ever before.

I was under the impression Uk qe has been steadily increasing year on year. The states has seen an exponential increase in QE the last couple of years though.

 

[Old apprentice]

Dare I say it. But in times of world crisis. War seems to galvanize and fix economies in the long term. The trouble at the moment with trying to control inflation is that regardless of the country trying, its global inflation. In the main caused by........China. They seem to control the sea freight and container shortage. (Freight rates have gone up 6 fold for Australian imports/ exports.). They control the vast majority of both fertilizer and chemical production. Both of which are being cut back significantly due (allegedly) to the "winter Olympics " and trying to clean up the air in Beijing by limiting factory output by cutting back on electricity.
My gut feeling? Convenient excuse to do what their bioweapon failed to do and bring down the world economy to replace the US as top dog, then look out Taiwan and whomever else they take a fancy too...(Tibet, Vietnam.........)

Bringing china out of the ( cold) trading I have thaught that they will trade to improve things in china then the ultimate aim is to control yes the world.
The latest ballistic missiles into space round the globe then they can drop them in any where. But we all seam to go back and buy there cheaperror stuff!!!

 

[oil barron]

I was under the impression Uk qe has been steadily increasing year on year. The states has seen an exponential increase in QE the last couple of years though.

Bank of England Balance sheet. They had started to sell off bonds in 2019. Then boof

 

[Yale]

The current economics should be used to bring industries and jobs home.

We have the power as a nation to do trade deals and take manufacturing in house again.

The politicians can’t see beyond the end of their nose and will stuff it up because they need to ‘cut carbon emissions’ when all they are doing is exporting them and jobs.

It is better to have industries here as we can regulate them accordingly and make imports meet our standards.

Imported food should also be made to meet emission and higher production standards.

 

[Still Farming]

When a house was £80k

Was it?
1960's ??
Not around here.

 

[DaveGrohl]

The current economics should be used to bring industries and jobs home.

We have the power as a nation to do trade deals and take manufacturing in house again.

The politicians can’t see beyond the end of their nose and will stuff it up because they need to ‘cut carbon emissions’ when all they are doing is exporting them and jobs.

It is better to have industries here as we can regulate them accordingly and make imports meet our standards.

Imported food should also be made to meet emission and higher production standards.

Sometimes it seems that everyone can see this except the ones with the power to influence it.

 

[DaveGrohl]

Given the current level of borrowing to earnings in the UK I'd say there's as much chance of monkeys flying out of my arsehole, than a significant interest rate rise. It would be complete economic suicide and could lead to the complete collapse of the banks as very few would actually be able to service their debts.

We didn't go through 2008 for nothing. There's ample room (and desire) for more government borrowing to offset inflation. Can see a wealth of loan scheme and government buyout of "essential" industries in the coming year to ramp up domestic production.

The biggest issue with the current inflation bubble is supply. Once covid dies down globally in the new year and the marketplace adjusts I think inflation will level off a fair bit.

Basically there's to much to go wrong right now for the government and BoE to let it go even slightly wrong.

What we ended up "going through" in 2008 was credit crunch lite. It wasn't allowed to play out as it needed to. The era of the worldwide low interest rate experiment started a long while before 2008.

 

[Nitrams]

The current economics should be used to bring industries and jobs home.

We have the power as a nation to do trade deals and take manufacturing in house again.

The politicians can’t see beyond the end of their nose and will stuff it up because they need to ‘cut carbon emissions’ when all they are doing is exporting them and jobs.

It is better to have industries here as we can regulate them accordingly and make imports meet our standards.

Imported food should also be made to meet emission and higher production standards.

all politicion are only interested in their own acheivments and more then happy to surf the wave of money in the land of make beleive in the city over the last 30 yrs. Create the super rich and export all your sh!t to a under developed nation to accelerate the wave further. As the sh!t hits the fan they will need more primary and secondary industries to dig us out the sh!t if the bubble in the fairytale world blowsup...

 

[pellow]

Anyone who thinks interest rates cannot rise believes we have full control of our currency and a good handle of everyone elses, when our economy has a wobble (which will be massive when it happens) other countries, friends and foes will attack our currency and we will need to protect its value by giving interest

 

[beardface]

What we ended up "going through" in 2008 was credit crunch lite. It wasn't allowed to play out as it needed to. The era of the worldwide low interest rate experiment started a long while before 2008.

It wasn't as bad as it could've been. Hence why BoE and the treasury has very little appetite for anything which may instigate a 2.0 version. I think the highest rate rise we'll see will be .5 to 1%. Enough to slow inflation a little, but not enough to cause any short term panic.

In reality though interest rates should be nearer 5% to get society back into a saving rather than constant spending position and allow more people to afford house deposits.

 

[Roger Perry]

The current economics should be used to bring industries and jobs home.

We have the power as a nation to do trade deals and take manufacturing in house again.

The politicians can’t see beyond the end of their nose and will stuff it up because they need to ‘cut carbon emissions’ when all they are doing is exporting them and jobs.

It is better to have industries here as we can regulate them accordingly and make imports meet our standards.

Imported food should also be made to meet emission and higher production standards.

I hate to say it but it will never happen unless you become a totalitarian state, the economics of modern commerce dictate how it will be.
You may not like it but it is the only system that enables the citizen to prosper and thus improve life for all.
Its' only when the heavy hand of taxation and regulation intervenes to tax success that it falters (example Britain)

 

[Yale]

I hate to say it but it will never happen unless you become a totalitarian state, the economics of modern commerce dictate how it will be.
You may not like it but it is the only system that enables the citizen to prosper and thus improve life for all.
Its' only when the heavy hand of taxation and regulation intervenes to tax success that it falters (example Britain)

And this is why the Chinese have become so successful.

They have mastered working the ‘western system’ and are leaching power from us with every piece of plastic crap we buy from them.

 

[bluebell]

i used to think that, bring industries home? start making more here, now its not so cheap to import stuff halfway round the world? only trouble i can see, and a very big one at that? is where are all the home grown workers to be found to work in these factories , if we cant fill the massive short fall of currant job vacancies ?

 

[chaffcutter]

Biggest problem with that is the old skills in manufacturing have died out so it all needs to be new technology now.