quavers
Member
- Location
- aberdeenshire
who with
Interest Rates Predicted To Rise Very Soon
- Thread starter cattleman123
- Start date
- Location
- southern riverina Australia
Apparently the reverse curve of the bond market has accurately predicted the last 8 recessions in the US. This is when investors start to return to govt bonds as security. They're doing it now Apparently...Although experts say it needs to be sustained through a quarter to say we are about to slip into a recession. Banks here in Aus have been independently lifting rates from what the reserve bank rate is. That will keep happening regardless of our central banks wishes.America sneezes, the world catches a cold...
Aaaaaaaaaaa Chooooooo
Deutsche Bank predicts US recession in 2023 due to Fed rate hikes
An economic recession is on the horizon in the U.S. as the Federal Reserve makes an aggressive pivot to cool the hottest inflation in four decades, according to economists at Deutsche Bank.www.foxbusiness.com
midlandslad
Member
- Location
- Midlands
Looking like we are in for another increase on Thursday, potential for a 50bp increase however I think it will be steady away at 25 again.
Markets are already pricing in 2.75% base rate next year. Gone are the days of cheap money!!
Markets are already pricing in 2.75% base rate next year. Gone are the days of cheap money!!
- Location
- Scottish Highlands
I’ve read some suggestions that the rates will be dropping again fairly soon. Compare fixed rate for 2,3,5&10 year terms - all very similar.
If/ when we hit recession, they need a rate they can drop.
Where are they showing 2.75% base for next year?
UK gilts are currently suggesting 2.02% for next year.
4course
Member
- Location
- north yorks
being older and not necessarily wiser consider money under 5-7 % cheap as when I started out seem to remember paying 15 % plus
Ceri
Member
Try servicing a loan in the late 80s when base was 15%....... Anything under 5% base is dirt cheap
- Location
- South Wales UK
Yes don't know their born.Try servicing a loan in the late 80s when base was 15%....... Anything under 5% base is dirt cheap
14- 18% was the norm when we took mortgages out.
- Location
- South Wales UK
They weren't on stock prices defo.
Fat lambs were about £30- £35 ??
Yeah, and a man's wages were a ton?
We had 2 workmen, dad, brother and myself.
Now just me.
Don't know how it worked back then really.
Ceri
Member
Land was super cheap back then so the debt was never sky high but interest rates were so high that u didn't pay any tax (You could put interest against tax). Its the other way round now and buying land comes with massive debts & by the time u pay interest and income tax, wats left only makes a small hole in the borrowed money. 100 acres for £150,000 back then, now that would set u back £900,000..... Takes alot more paying off...
- Location
- South Wales UK
Never much around her less than 5k acre?Land was super cheap back then so the debt was never sky high but interest rates were so high that u didn't pay any tax (You could put interest against tax). Its the other way round now and buying land comes with massive debts & by the time u pay interest and income tax, wats left only makes a small hole in the borrowed money. 100 acres for £150,000 back then, now that would set u back £900,000..... Takes alot more paying off...
Your talking about LFA possibly areas?
Scottish prices a lot of good arable ground in Aberdeenshire for less than 1k an acre down to £500 .
That was in the 70s
Tarw Coch
Member
- Location
- Bottom of Wats Dyke
Back when?Land was super cheap back then so the debt was never sky high but interest rates were so high that u didn't pay any tax (You could put interest against tax). Its the other way round now and buying land comes with massive debts & by the time u pay interest and income tax, wats left only makes a small hole in the borrowed money. 100 acres for £150,000 back then, now that would set u back £900,000..... Takes alot more paying off...
I can’t really remember where interest rates were before the early eighties when we bought this farm and interest rates were in the mid to high teens.
But dad sold land then that he had bought in the 60’s for more in thousands per acre than he paid for it in hundreds per acre 15/20 years previously, add a 0 on the prices on simple terms or 10 times the amount he paid for it.
Nearly 40 years on it certainly isn’t worth 10 times what it was bought for, probably half that at best. So land hasn’t increased by anything like the percentage it did through the 70’s in the last 4 decades although the increase in pounds is greater, much of that increase having come since interest rates have been lower in the last 20 years or so.
Ceri
Member
Yes I'm guessing good LFA land now is 7-10,000/ acre nowa days depends on the neighbours etc etc- crazy it is..... Back then it was 1000-3000/acre...
lloyd
Member
- Location
- Herefordshire
Tree planters have put a bottom in the market.
Wonder how long before that bottom falls out?
Ceri
Member
Well by the looks after today the tree planters may have had there day.........??????
And rightly bloody so I think a few people in government are starting to wake up to the fact we can't eat feckin bark......
