Interesting article about wheat prices.

egbert

Member
article says...
'And high oil prices do mean the cost of fertiliser has gone up (since petroleum coke, used for manufacturing fertiliser, is an oil refinery by-product)'

eh?
 
but a great understanding of human behaviour....
the thing is that every one (nearly every one )out side of agriculture has got very complacent about food security
the asumption is that the shops will find it and supply it

the flour small bagged flour shortages highlighted this when the large bagged flour could not get to the shopper because of the lockdowns

supply logistics is the issue
since the pandemic it takes longer to get everything from factory to consumer
many suppliers have realised they need higher stock levels in the pipeline
more ship more containers ect
this is the same for food supplies

the blockading of the black sea and sanctions on any thing russian has made it a lot worse
 

DaveGrohl

Member
Location
Cumbria
article says...
'And high oil prices do mean the cost of fertiliser has gone up (since petroleum coke, used for manufacturing fertiliser, is an oil refinery by-product)'

eh?

Seems no else has a clue either :scratchhead:
 

milkloss

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
East Sussex
The idea of food security in the western part of the world is an interesting one and I can't see how it can be good for the respective farmers. Wheat price too high then starvation and riots ensue and the worlds governments have to push the price back down somehow. Wheat price too low and our high input, high output systems will suffer financially.

We can't win in my opinion but I reckon someone in the emerging nations would be relatively rolling in it.
 

Boysground

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Wiltshire
the thing is that every one (nearly every one )out side of agriculture has got very complacent about food security
the asumption is that the shops will find it and supply it

the flour small bagged flour shortages highlighted this when the large bagged flour could not get to the shopper because of the lockdowns

supply logistics is the issue
since the pandemic it takes longer to get everything from factory to consumer
many suppliers have realised they need higher stock levels in the pipeline
more ship more containers ect
this is the same for food supplies

the blockading of the black sea and sanctions on any thing russian has made it a lot worse

Add in the Just in Time delivery system, meaning that nobody has anywhere to store extra product if supply lines get longer

Bg
 

DaveGrohl

Member
Location
Cumbria
The idea of food security in the western part of the world is an interesting one and I can't see how it can be good for the respective farmers. Wheat price too high then starvation and riots ensue and the worlds governments have to push the price back down somehow. Wheat price too low and our high input, high output systems will suffer financially.

We can't win in my opinion but I reckon someone in the emerging nations would be relatively rolling in it.
If the wheat price is too high due to lack of supply how do "they" push it down when pushing it down will reduce supply further?
 

egbert

Member

Seems no else has a clue either :scratchhead:
ah...a by product of that enviro cuddly unicorn love-in camp....the Athabasca tar sands.

For all I know you might well be able to make fert out of it...hydro-carbons one and all.
I soon lost interest in the piece as it makes the assumption that market speculation is what's causing the spike, ignoring why there is speculation it's on the rise.
 

milkloss

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
East Sussex
If the wheat price is too high due to lack of supply how do "they" push it down when pushing it down will reduce supply further?
Lord knows! But they'll have to surely? And obviously it won't be good for the farmer either. If they don't keep food affordable there'll be issues such as riots, revolutions, mass migration etc etc. Food price has a limit and the price right now isn't sustainable and will come back down to earth.
 

DaveGrohl

Member
Location
Cumbria
Lord knows! But they'll have to surely? And obviously it won't be good for the farmer either. If they don't keep food affordable there'll be issues such as riots, revolutions, mass migration etc etc. Food price has a limit and the price right now isn't sustainable and will come back down to earth.
Well quite. The cure for high prices is high prices. Everyone cuts back because of the price (whether it’s wheat or fert) so the demand drops so prices eventually drop. Got to go through the process of the pain and the demand destruction first though. Could put a thousand price charts on here and they all show the same pattern of prices shooting to the moon and then plummeting back to Earth after. That’s just the way it is.
 
Lord knows! But they'll have to surely? And obviously it won't be good for the farmer either. If they don't keep food affordable there'll be issues such as riots, revolutions, mass migration etc etc. Food price has a limit and the price right now isn't sustainable and will come back down to earth.


Food prices are low compared to when I grew up.

The difference today is the vast amount of money required to buy or rent a home.

Food is going to rise because fertiliser is far too expensive and most countries are reducing production because of "Green Policy" - Sri Lanka went 100% Organic and has gone totally tits up. It will be interesting to see IF the truth is reported - I doubt it.
 

milkloss

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
East Sussex
Well quite. The cure for high prices is high prices. Everyone cuts back because of the price (whether it’s wheat or fert) so the demand drops so prices eventually drop. Got to go through the process of the pain and the demand destruction first though. Could put a thousand price charts on here and they all show the same pattern of prices shooting to the moon and then plummeting back to Earth after. That’s just the way it is.
The ecomonies around the world are so fettled by Politicians now that I'm not sure a natural demand destruction will happen So easily. There so much at stake I think nerve will be lost and some sort of manipulation will happen, be that further war or market support.
 
The idea of food security in the western part of the world is an interesting one and I can't see how it can be good for the respective farmers. Wheat price too high then starvation and riots ensue and the worlds governments have to push the price back down somehow. Wheat price too low and our high input, high output systems will suffer financially.

We can't win in my opinion but I reckon someone in the emerging nations would be relatively rolling in it.
rolling in blood sadly.
 

Make Tax Digital Software Poll

  • Quickbooks

    Votes: 34 16.6%
  • Sage

    Votes: 20 9.8%
  • Xero

    Votes: 95 46.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 56 27.3%

Man fined £300 for bonfire-related waste offences

  • 238
  • 0
Written by William Kellett from Agriland

court-640x360.jpg
A man has pleaded guilty at Newtownards Magistrates’ Court to waste offences relating to a bonfire next to the electrical sub-station on the Circular Road in Newtownards, Co. Down.

Gareth Gill (51) of Abbot’s Walk, Newtownards pleaded guilty to two charges under the Waste and Contaminated Land (Northern Ireland) Order 1997, for which he was fined £150 each and ordered to pay a £15 offender’s levy

On June 25, 2018, PSNI officers went to Gill’s yard, where they found a large amount of waste consisting of scrap wood, pallets, carpet and underlay.

Discussion with Northern Ireland Environment Agency (NIEA) officers confirmed the site...
Top