Is The Whole Job Just Completely Buggered?

[Cab-over Pete]

Aye-up,

I’ve had three similar conversations lately:

First, a 420 acre place that finishes beef cattle, in total about 800 per year. No mortgage or rent, couple both do the work with a part time lad and some contractors, can’t afford to put the lime on this year. Not a customer of mine, but I’ve known them a long time.

Secondly, 280 acre tenant, sheep, beef and arable. Thinking of giving notice later this year. Hasn’t bought a single bolt of machinery in two years. He says the whole job is just a hobby, his wife is a lawyer and she earns the money they live on. Can see no options what with greedy landlord, interfering agents, several visits that cleared out his workshop and tractor shed, travellers squatting on fields and now HS2. I’ve always considered him a really good farmer, good crops and stock.

Thirdly, spoke to an owner occupier, no mortgage, 240 acres. 160 acres of arable barely broke even last year, some of the kindest ground I’ve ever been on, north Warwickshire. His wife is a professor of something and he says if it wasn’t for her long hours and salary they would starve. (might be a bit of an exaggeration, but you get his meaning!).

Also, I went sampling to a place last week, covered 180 acres, all for pH and then send to the lab for P, K, Mg. farmers son rings the next day and says don’t send to lab, they don’t want the £230 bill.

I’ve never known such a dull outlook I don’t think.

Certainly my spring tonnage has been getting less for the last three years and shows little sign of increasing this spring.

Am I just spreading doom? I hope not. I class myself as reasonably upbeat most of the time!

Cheers, Pete

 

[colhonk]

That is what it is like in the real world of Farming now

 

[steveR]

I suspect that you will always see farmers going up and down on the prospects for their business, usually some sun and spring growth, and they'll pick up. However, there is a definite healthy dose of pessimism about. It may be that the first 2 of the customers you mention are being the realists...

I am definitely of the view that there are more big shake-ups coming, and if we get a bad or no deal Brexit, it will accentuate the problem in Agriculture. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I am pleased that we now have a good slice of our income from non-farming sources these days.

 

[Clive]

If the owner occupier can't make a living he is doing something seriously wrong

Time a few people woke up and understood they are running businesses, there is money in farming done right (as in financially right) even if you have rent to pay

It's certainly not easy money but its really not all doom and gloom either

 

[Gulli]

It's definitely getting tougher but there's still money and a nice life to be made.
Chin up Pete it's not all bad

 

[Goweresque]

As @7610 super q keeps saying, 17th century prices and 21st century costs will eventually have an impact. We forget as farmers, used to seasons rolling around the same every year, how far the rest of the country travels as the years go by. People get pay rises, maybe not every year recently, but they still happen, especially if they work for the State. Over time that 1%, 2% 3% adds up. Minimum wage will be £9/hr by April 2020, which is only a year away. How many farmers are earning that for every hour they work? Plus all the holiday and sick pay, employment rights etc that employees have?

Eventually being paid the same for your produce in cash terms that you were getting 25 years ago (I know we got £140/tonne post ERM exit in 1993/4) is going to break most businesses.

 

[DrDunc]

If the owner occupier can't make a living he is doing something seriously wrong

Time a few people woke up and understood they are running businesses, there is money in farming done right (as in financially right) even if you have rent to pay

I'll happily swap farms and let you make money from my tenanted hill livestock farm Clive

 

[Derrick Hughes]

So can it it get any worse yes or no please?

I can wait while you put your isn't life wonderful but we are all doomed if we leave the EU cap on

 

[Clive]

I'll happily swap farms and let you make money from my tenanted hill livestock farm Clive

I don't do livestock for a good reason and as far as I'm aware no one is forced to either

 

[Cab-over Pete]

You’re right Clive, nobody is forced to, but it is a bit of a bugger if some can’t make a living from it.

Not every acre can be arable, neither could every farmer be.

It's definitely getting tougher but there's still money and a nice life to be made.
Chin up Pete it's not all bad

I’m not saying it’s all bad, just asking the question.

 

[Clive]

i bet there are livestock guys making money

if one can then all could IF they took the same approach as the guy that can make money from it


trouble is most wont ................ because they haven't had to in the past

 

[Werzle]

Got the full selection around here, large dairy farmers buying toys left right and centre, smaller ones crying they cannot go on. AD plant printing money and willing to take on every available acre, spud boys willing to take them on for every acre. Arable farmers putting up chicken houses like the moneys for free. Only us livestock farmers scratching our heads wondering whats the point atm. A good many going to cull there suckler cows rather than bull them again. Contractors still baffling me, some packing up and getting jobs and others posting pics of new toys weekly!

 

[betweenthelines]

It's been the case for about 60 years that not many owner occupiers with no mortgages that are making what they could if they sold up and invested the cash instead. And if the spouse has a very well paid job, well, it's just hobby farming isn't it. And there's always been people who aren't very good farmers (or business managers)

There's plenty of farmers on TFF happy to make sure that everyone knows THEY are buying new tractors/4x4's/milking set ups etc. etc.

Land, livestock & machinery prices are on the up & up and interest rates at an all time low.

No crisis in UK agriculture

 

[Wellytrack]

That’s the spirit, fudge everyone til your the one that’s having problems.....

 

[JCMaloney]

I guess farms are similar to corner shops vs supermarkets.
There are economies of scale, better processes and the like, however if the smaller unit can`t adapt/improvise/work smarter then the math`s won`t add up. Then they either sell up or outsource the work.

 

[Derrick Hughes]

I'll happily swap farms and let you make money from my tenanted hill livestock farm Clive [emoji23]

Was there ever any money in hill livestock apart from the headage years ?

 

[unlacedgecko]

I guess farms are similar to corner shops vs supermarkets.
There are economies of scale, better processes and the like, however if the smaller unit can`t adapt/improvise/work smarter then the math`s won`t add up. Then they either sell up or outsource the work.

Rationalisation of the sector is long overdue.

 

[M-J-G]

We've had one of the best years ever, more like the past 12 months please!

 

[milkloss]

There’s winners and losers. In my opinion the gap is getting dangerously bigger.

 

[jondear]

We've had one of the best years ever, more like the past 12 months please!

Another year like last would finish off half the Southwest livestock farmers!