fieldfarmer
Member
Or they are using the guth way of thinking, possible 100's died from arthritis , asthma, poor eyesight and loads of others underlying heath issues but none to CV.
Italy's in shut down
- Thread starter Hfd Cattle
- Start date
you forgot the one with big toe ache, very serious that
Courier
Member
- Location
- M62 - M1 - M18 triangle
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Covid 19 interactive: How do we compare?
Continuous updated set of Covid-19 interactives.
www.nzherald.co.nz
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PercyBlakeney
Member
ONS just released their figures, which counts ALL deaths in England and Wales:
"The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 27 March 2020 (Week 13) was 11,141; this represents an increase of 496 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 12) and 1,011 more than the five-year average".
So 10% higher than the five year-average for that week - would suggest more people are dying than usual.
Also bearing in mind in that week we were on 50-150 daily deaths, currently at 400-700 in the most recent week..
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...landandwalesprovisional/weekending27march2020
Don't like being a 'doomer' but I think these figures are important, as they put into perspective how many 'extra' people are dying, not just C-19 recorded deaths which in SOME instances will be people could have been dying anyway. This virus is obviously not a normal flu virus, Docs just been on bbc saying it's like comparing stroke to a ingrowing toe nail.
50% mortality rate for people on ventilators and 2.4% loss in muscle mass per day for the first 10 days!!!
"The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 27 March 2020 (Week 13) was 11,141; this represents an increase of 496 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 12) and 1,011 more than the five-year average".
So 10% higher than the five year-average for that week - would suggest more people are dying than usual.
Also bearing in mind in that week we were on 50-150 daily deaths, currently at 400-700 in the most recent week..
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...landandwalesprovisional/weekending27march2020
Don't like being a 'doomer' but I think these figures are important, as they put into perspective how many 'extra' people are dying, not just C-19 recorded deaths which in SOME instances will be people could have been dying anyway. This virus is obviously not a normal flu virus, Docs just been on bbc saying it's like comparing stroke to a ingrowing toe nail.
50% mortality rate for people on ventilators and 2.4% loss in muscle mass per day for the first 10 days!!!
- Location
- Limousin/Charentes toad land
GUTH does their figures and everyone dies from something else
ollie989898
Member
The loss in muscle mass from lying in bed and not moving is typical of anyone with any illness. It happens to everyone.
beefandsleep
Member
- Location
- Staffordshire
But it seems the loss of condition during illness from Coronavirus is alarmingly severe according to my physio wife.
ollie989898
Member
Of course, by all accounts it is pretty virulent and the immune system will go into overdrive to fight it. Couple that with a potential increased oxygen demand that will be hard to supply given it's effects on the respiratory system it's no surprise the skeletal muscles are the first to be used for salvage.
Higher temperature, increased lactic acid loading from all that cellular activity, more respiration to try and keep up. The muscles can be regrown later.
- Location
- Limousin
Every country will have differing criteria in how it counts deaths so it's pointless comparing one another as it is to compare Covid-19 to seasonal flu death rates. For example Covid is now classed a notifiable disease in the UK so you expect a high rate of deaths being attributed to it rather than any supposed underlying health problem. However, Seasonal Flu is not notifiable, so deaths caused by it will generally attributed to whatever the underlying health problem was.
PercyBlakeney
Member
That’s why I was looking at the 5 year average deaths for a given week compared to 2020. That should take account of people with underlying healths issues that could have carried on perfectly happily for years but have succumbed to the virus. Or is my thinking off on that?
- Location
- S E Glos
If it keeps on rising like this there will only be Guth left to post on here.
- Location
- Limousin
I think that's a reasonable way of looking at it.
But I get depressed at some of the idiot predictions these modellers come up with. I noticed today that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Washington, they supply the WHO with forecasts, show the following total deaths from Covid-19 by 4th August (fist wave):
USA 81,766
UK 66,314
Italy 20,300
Spain 19,209
France 15,058
IMO the US looks on the very low side and UK looks to be overestimated by about x 3.
- Location
- Hammerwich
Are Italy over the worst? The figures look that way:
Update from Italy on 3rd:
Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.
This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].
The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.
If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.
Update from Italy on 3rd:
Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.
This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].
The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.
If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.
Figures have changed downwards , thankfully , but still grim.
- Location
- Ceredigion
Where do you get 854 from ?
Wont be the Devon Times.... There would of been only 3 and they would be due to ingrowing Toenails.
- Location
- Ceredigion
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