It's a Conspiracy

[Danllan]

Its not a conspiracy but the crisis is being used by all sorts of vested interests to push their own agendas that wouldn't otherwise be politically viable. In favour of identity cards (or stand to make a fortune from government contracts if identity cards are introduced)? What better time to start pushing the idea of 'Vaccine passports'? Against international air travel for 'green' reasons? What better time to try and restrict people's ability to travel by introducing covid related restrictions? Plus of course covid has given the government and the state apparatus significant powers they could not have imagined ever having beforehand. They aren't going to give them up easily.

So no, its not a conspiracy, its more what is termed 'emergent behaviour', when all manner of completely separate and individual choices can create something quite complex without there ever having been the overarching intention to create it. Its often how police states come into being - its not the case that the Big Dictator suddenly says 'I need a police state' and creates one, more that one emerges through a myriad of individual decisions, each one having a specific logical reason behind it, but the cumulative effect of all these individual decisions is to create a police state. That is what we are seeing now - lots of people and government bodies making decisions that make perfect sense within and of themselves, but the overall effect of all those decisions is to create a country that no longer looks or feels anything like it did 15 months ago.

Prognosis?

I find it hard to believe that the general population will allow itself to be imposed upon unnecessarily, indefinitely. Not saying that the 'authorities' aren't and won't take advantage of the ongoing situation for as long as they may, but there will come a point at which enough will be enough. And that in turn may / will be taken advantage of by libertarian politicians...

 

[essex man]

Over the last few decades the flu vaccine uptake has been fairly static - around the mid 70% mark.

How has flu vaccine uptake in people aged 65 and over changed over time?

Nuffield Trust

www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk

And yet the age adjusted mortality rate has continued to fall throughout this period. 2020 reversed a decades long trend of reduction and had the only double digit year on year increase of the last 50 years. This is not just due to the existence or otherwise of the flu vaccine, and Covid is far more of a risk to us all than the flu.

Whilst it is true to say that the mortality rate was higher in the days before we had flu vaccine (and indeed in the days before we had antibiotics, ambulances and anasthaesia), to try and draw any correlation between the two is wrong.

Did you expect without covid, mortality rates to improve forever, no ceiling, immortality?

 

[Highland Mule]

Did you expect without covid, mortality rates to improve forever, no ceiling, immortality?

No, I don’t expect immortality. But with such a large sample size as our population I don’t expect unexplained changes of more than a very small amount. 2020 was a massive delta from 2019, and the most likely cause was Covid. To trivialise a change of that magnitude is wrong.

 

[essex man]

No, I don’t expect immortality. But with such a large sample size as our population I don’t expect unexplained changes of more than a very small amount. 2020 was a massive delta from 2019, and the most likely cause was Covid. To trivialise a change of that magnitude is wrong.

2019 was also a change from 2018

 

[essex man]

2019 was also a change from 2018

It's a bounce back

 

[essex man]

No, I don’t expect immortality. But with such a large sample size as our population I don’t expect unexplained changes of more than a very small amount. 2020 was a massive delta from 2019, and the most likely cause was Covid. To trivialise a change of that magnitude is wrong.

You comparing it to the best year in history!

 

[Ukjay]

You comparing it to the best year in history!

 

[Highland Mule]

2019 was also a change from 2018

It was indeed. 2019 continued with a trend of improved health that has been largely the case for decades.

It's a bounce back

No, it's not. It's the biggest increase in 50 years - the only double digit one in that time and around three times as large as any other increase.

You comparing it to the best year in history!

I'm comparing it to every previous year of the last fifty.

 

[essex man]

No, I don’t expect immortality. But with such a large sample size as our population I don’t expect unexplained changes of more than a very small amount. 2020 was a massive delta from 2019, and the most likely cause was Covid. To trivialise a change of that magnitude is wrong.

It's not unexplained it goes in two year cycles

 

[essex man]

It was indeed. 2019 continued with a trend of improved health that has been largely the case for decades.



No, it's not. It's the biggest increase in 50 years - the only double digit one in that time and around three times as large as any other increase.



I'm comparing it to every previous year of the last fifty.

View attachment 957982

Why not show the real graph?

 

[essex man]

Why not show the real graph?

I can generate a graph that shows a flat line, you can do what you have done

 

[essex man]

.

 

[essex man]

The annual graph, strangely doesn't look much like yours, guess you needed it to go up a bit sharper.

 

[essex man]

If the people who statistically would have normally died in 2019, die in 2020, do we care?
We care but it's imo not a reason to confine everyone to their houses etc

 

[Highland Mule]

Why not show the real graph?

Because I am interested in the changes year on year and not the actual numbers.

I can generate a graph that shows a flat line, you can do what you have done

How would you do that then? The data is not consistent, so the line wouldn't be.

.View attachment 957983

Two year moving average? Seriously? We are looking at short term variations and you cite a graph that is for long term trends?

The annual graph, strangely doesn't look much like yours, guess you needed it to go up a bit sharper.View attachment 957984

Nasty old bump at the end there, isn't it? It's the sharpest rise of anything and shows that the long term health improvements have been reversed quite sharply. Biggest jump up in the last 50 years, I bet.

 

[essex man]

.

 

[essex man]

Because I am interested in the changes year on year and not the actual numbers.



How would you do that then? The data is not consistent, so the line wouldn't be.



Two year moving average? Seriously? We are looking at short term variations and you cite a graph that is for long term trends?



Nasty old bump at the end there, isn't it? It's the sharpest rise of anything and shows that the long term health improvements have been reversed quite sharply. Biggest jump up in the last 50 years, I bet.

How many jumps have there been?

 

[essex man]

Because I am interested in the changes year on year and not the actual numbers.



How would you do that then? The data is not consistent, so the line wouldn't be.



Two year moving average? Seriously? We are looking at short term variations and you cite a graph that is for long term trends?



Nasty old bump at the end there, isn't it? It's the sharpest rise of anything and shows that the long term health improvements have been reversed quite sharply. Biggest jump up in the last 50 years, I bet.

2 year averages, to some extent but not completely, eliminate the bounce back.

 

[Highland Mule]

How many jumps have there been?

Can't you count them yourself?

 

[Goweresque]

Prognosis?

I find it hard to believe that the general population will allow itself to be imposed upon unnecessarily, indefinitely. Not saying that the 'authorities' aren't and won't take advantage of the ongoing situation for as long as they may, but there will come a point at which enough will be enough. And that in turn may / will be taken advantage of by libertarian politicians...

History tells us that restrictions imposed for all manner of reasons can outlast the crisis by many years, even decades. Rationing continued post WW2 for 9 years until 1954 (in fact some things remained rationed until '58). The pub licencing laws that were liberalised in the early 00s were put in place in during WW1 to stop munitions workers getting blind drunk during working hours. The US Federal government imposed a 55mph speed limit as a 'temporary fuel saving measure' in response to the Oil Crisis of the early 70s, that lasted until 1987 at least, and it wasn't until 1995 that all restrictions were lifted, and even then many of the individual states chose to keep the old limits. Even now some are still limited to 65mph.

There is a massive bias to the status quo, and if restrictions are maintained in place for long enough they become the norm and any liberalisation is viewed as needing to prove itself necessary. After all, how many of us grew up in an era when pubs closed at 11pm, and never questioned it, because that was the way things were?

Plus there is the issue (problem?) that many people are frightened by freedom. They actually prefer restrictions, it gives them a sense of security. And for a (hopefully small) minority the chance to poke their noses into other people's affairs, and to order them around for not obeying the rules.

So no, I'm not optimistic that things will revert to 'normal' any time soon. The history of the nature of governance and human psychology suggests otherwise.