Welcome to the first Feedcast episode for 2022. Chris Davidson is with us once again to update you on what has happened over Christmas and give a forward look at the commodities markets.
Over the Christmas break everything has remained bullish, really continuing the general themes around the around world of prices and inflation increasing on most things.
Soya has moved the most over the festive season with El Nina weather continuing to threaten the Argentinian crop, this has resulted in contract highs, which although falling now, could easily go back up with the USDA report due this week. Many market estimates peg Brazil crop being lowered from 144mT to 134mT and Argentinian crop from 49.5mT to 44mT at some point, but whether it is this week, or in future reports appears to the question at the moment. With summer prices at over £400T delivered it doesn’t feel that this will decrease any time soon.
Mid-proteins continue to remain strong with rape seed prices higher than ever. Summer delivered prices for Rapemeal are at circa £330 + and the new crop prices for Aug-Oct £245-260 delivered. These high prices are pushing rape to be removed from the ration and this may result in a levelling out of the supply/demand pressures longer term. Positively, the Vivergo launch is still on track and the prices for March material onwards are looking competitive and give a great opportunity to start building the basket of raw materials for the summer.
From a cereals perspective the fundamentals haven’t changed. Prices could be set to rise in the future as although Australian wheat harvest is looking good the US crop is suffering from drought in the main growing regions of Kansas and Oklahoma. This expected lowering of the wheat outlook means the market is primed for a rally, now is the time to fill any gaps.
There are opportunities in wheat related products such as biscuit meal and bread, however these are likely to sell out quickly. Maize meal is also worth considering at the moment. Don’t forget to get in touch if you want any advice on anything mentioned this week or any help you require with your rations.
Continue reading...
Over the Christmas break everything has remained bullish, really continuing the general themes around the around world of prices and inflation increasing on most things.
Soya has moved the most over the festive season with El Nina weather continuing to threaten the Argentinian crop, this has resulted in contract highs, which although falling now, could easily go back up with the USDA report due this week. Many market estimates peg Brazil crop being lowered from 144mT to 134mT and Argentinian crop from 49.5mT to 44mT at some point, but whether it is this week, or in future reports appears to the question at the moment. With summer prices at over £400T delivered it doesn’t feel that this will decrease any time soon.
Mid-proteins continue to remain strong with rape seed prices higher than ever. Summer delivered prices for Rapemeal are at circa £330 + and the new crop prices for Aug-Oct £245-260 delivered. These high prices are pushing rape to be removed from the ration and this may result in a levelling out of the supply/demand pressures longer term. Positively, the Vivergo launch is still on track and the prices for March material onwards are looking competitive and give a great opportunity to start building the basket of raw materials for the summer.
From a cereals perspective the fundamentals haven’t changed. Prices could be set to rise in the future as although Australian wheat harvest is looking good the US crop is suffering from drought in the main growing regions of Kansas and Oklahoma. This expected lowering of the wheat outlook means the market is primed for a rally, now is the time to fill any gaps.
There are opportunities in wheat related products such as biscuit meal and bread, however these are likely to sell out quickly. Maize meal is also worth considering at the moment. Don’t forget to get in touch if you want any advice on anything mentioned this week or any help you require with your rations.
Continue reading...