This episode is brought to you by Chris Davidson and James Barker, as usual they detail the wheat, soya and mid protein markets, offering suggestions on opportunities where they see them.
Despite the volatility in the wheat market we are seeing a downward trend in the wheat futures. This is varying daily but is averaging at around £219, and could result in opportunities, depending on the Russia - Ukraine outcome. Heading in to the new crop weather is looking good across Europe and the Black Sea area resulting in talk of crop levels being increased and this is allowing easing in supply and demand.
This lowering in the wheat futures is making products linked to these attractive, now is a good time to look at biscuit meal, maize meal and maize germ as these prices reflect this dip. It is worth noting we are still looking at premium prices on the physical wheat in the north of the country due to news of Vivergo reopening.
There is a watch out on the US and South American crop levels however. At the moment the weather in the US is very dry and the crop is in dormancy. Likewise Brazil is also suffering from dry conditions and this may result in a lowering of expected tonnes from this region and a tightening of stock. It will be another 4-6 weeks before we know more here.
This El Nina weather system is also affecting soya and as a result the soya market has taken off over the last few weeks increasing by as much as $50. This is a result of the expected crop lowering’s coming from Brazil and Argentina. Based on the latest figures from the region we are expecting Argentinean stocks to hit a 10yr low and likewise Brazilian stocks to hit a 20yr low. This pressure on availability means the market is stuck at these high prices despite the relatively low demand. These prices, this early in the year, can leave you susceptible to falling markets so be careful.
Likewise in the mid-proteins rape is riding the back of this soya high and consequently we are seeing very little purchasing aside from spot as the markets wait for the new crop. However, there is positivity here, as we watch for news of the Vivergo restart. Summer pricing on distillers is very favourable through Vivergo and Ensus depending on where you are in the country.
The fibre market, like all the others it seems, is very tight at the moment. Sugarbeet is sold for the rest of the crop year resulting in very little availability. Whereas soya hull pricing is vary dramatically, although if you can get £220 you will be doing well.
Summing up, stand out opportunities at the moment sit around biscuit meal, maize meal and distillers. Keep watching the markets and if you catch a down day take the opportunity.
Continue reading...
Despite the volatility in the wheat market we are seeing a downward trend in the wheat futures. This is varying daily but is averaging at around £219, and could result in opportunities, depending on the Russia - Ukraine outcome. Heading in to the new crop weather is looking good across Europe and the Black Sea area resulting in talk of crop levels being increased and this is allowing easing in supply and demand.
This lowering in the wheat futures is making products linked to these attractive, now is a good time to look at biscuit meal, maize meal and maize germ as these prices reflect this dip. It is worth noting we are still looking at premium prices on the physical wheat in the north of the country due to news of Vivergo reopening.
There is a watch out on the US and South American crop levels however. At the moment the weather in the US is very dry and the crop is in dormancy. Likewise Brazil is also suffering from dry conditions and this may result in a lowering of expected tonnes from this region and a tightening of stock. It will be another 4-6 weeks before we know more here.
This El Nina weather system is also affecting soya and as a result the soya market has taken off over the last few weeks increasing by as much as $50. This is a result of the expected crop lowering’s coming from Brazil and Argentina. Based on the latest figures from the region we are expecting Argentinean stocks to hit a 10yr low and likewise Brazilian stocks to hit a 20yr low. This pressure on availability means the market is stuck at these high prices despite the relatively low demand. These prices, this early in the year, can leave you susceptible to falling markets so be careful.
Likewise in the mid-proteins rape is riding the back of this soya high and consequently we are seeing very little purchasing aside from spot as the markets wait for the new crop. However, there is positivity here, as we watch for news of the Vivergo restart. Summer pricing on distillers is very favourable through Vivergo and Ensus depending on where you are in the country.
The fibre market, like all the others it seems, is very tight at the moment. Sugarbeet is sold for the rest of the crop year resulting in very little availability. Whereas soya hull pricing is vary dramatically, although if you can get £220 you will be doing well.
Summing up, stand out opportunities at the moment sit around biscuit meal, maize meal and distillers. Keep watching the markets and if you catch a down day take the opportunity.
Continue reading...