Todays episode of Feedcast sees Chris Davidson discussing the current UK market before moving on to an overview of the grains, soya and fibre markets more generally
While the UK remains tight in the nearby, there are signs of loosening coming towards the end of May and in to June. Currently; distillers are propped up by the false start at Vivergo, Ensus down time and a lack of imports. Rapemeal is beginning to see crushers looking at business left to be done and the soya arrival has been delayed due to strikes in Argentina. All this has led to a lack of availability of product. However, as the boats begin to arrive from Argentina we will see prices begin to decrease. Likewise with distillers, we should see supplies begin to ease as imports arrive on boats from June, and as the price of rape seed oil remains high we will see an increase in rapemeal needing to be sold. This all points to prices beginning to ease and longer term the prices in August are looking much more promising.
Globally, starting with soya, we are towards the end of the South American harvest and the beginning of North American planting. The Argentinian harvest is at about 50% and while it looks like it will be slightly down on the latest USDA numbers, this has already been priced in. Only 8% of the US planting is in the ground so far, meaning it is too early to say what will happen in the future, however the USDA report out next week will take in to account these planting levels and the expected demand from China to help give us a steer on the future.
The grains picture is still centred around Ukraine and the disappointing winter wheat from the US which has had the worst crop rating in recent memory. More positively the global wheat production is only estimated to be down by 1mT to 780mT, with losses offset by Europe, Russia and Canada.
The fibre market has not seen a significant change, with low availability meaning there are opportunities here and there, but with strong summer cover you need to pick and choose your deals.
One good opportunity right now is NovaPro, and can be found cheaper than rapemeal, so worth considering for any protein gaps. While prices remain high, they are lower than the record highs we have seen and we are beginning to see an increase in forward cover in an effort to budget and remove risk where possible. As always contact your local KW representative for any questions or advice.
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While the UK remains tight in the nearby, there are signs of loosening coming towards the end of May and in to June. Currently; distillers are propped up by the false start at Vivergo, Ensus down time and a lack of imports. Rapemeal is beginning to see crushers looking at business left to be done and the soya arrival has been delayed due to strikes in Argentina. All this has led to a lack of availability of product. However, as the boats begin to arrive from Argentina we will see prices begin to decrease. Likewise with distillers, we should see supplies begin to ease as imports arrive on boats from June, and as the price of rape seed oil remains high we will see an increase in rapemeal needing to be sold. This all points to prices beginning to ease and longer term the prices in August are looking much more promising.
Globally, starting with soya, we are towards the end of the South American harvest and the beginning of North American planting. The Argentinian harvest is at about 50% and while it looks like it will be slightly down on the latest USDA numbers, this has already been priced in. Only 8% of the US planting is in the ground so far, meaning it is too early to say what will happen in the future, however the USDA report out next week will take in to account these planting levels and the expected demand from China to help give us a steer on the future.
The grains picture is still centred around Ukraine and the disappointing winter wheat from the US which has had the worst crop rating in recent memory. More positively the global wheat production is only estimated to be down by 1mT to 780mT, with losses offset by Europe, Russia and Canada.
The fibre market has not seen a significant change, with low availability meaning there are opportunities here and there, but with strong summer cover you need to pick and choose your deals.
One good opportunity right now is NovaPro, and can be found cheaper than rapemeal, so worth considering for any protein gaps. While prices remain high, they are lower than the record highs we have seen and we are beginning to see an increase in forward cover in an effort to budget and remove risk where possible. As always contact your local KW representative for any questions or advice.
Continue reading...