Land prices

midlandslad

Member
Location
Midlands
The rise in land prices is closely linked to the interest rates, as these rise there will be a drop in demand and price in commercial farming areas. Where plenty of rollover money is kicking about the skies the limit.

There is a lot of debt out there in the farming world and many will be at the limit.
 

GeorgeK

Member
Location
Leicestershire
Prices definitely seem up a bit, been a long time since there has been so much optimism about the job. Costs are up but in general high prices are more than offsetting them, combined with talk about global food shortages there is a feeling things could finally be about to change for the better.
Threats include changes to inheritance and capital gains tax and an English version of right to roam.
 
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merino

Member
Location
The North East
Prices definitely seem up a bit, been a long time since there has been so much optimism about the job. Costs are up but in general high prices are more than offsetting them, combined with talk about global food shortages there is a feeling things could finally be about to change for the better.
Threats include changes to inheritance and capital gains tax and an English version of right to roam.
You know, ordinary people having rights is a thing that's typically held to be a sign of success in a country.

As for land prices, how they are going to perform relatively is quite important as well.
There's a connection there.

But as a lot of you will not accept that the UK isn't the greatest country conceivable (second to perhaps the England without THOSE PEOPLE) I'll spare myself the bother.
I think a steady real terms decline for second quality UK land for the rest of the decade is likely given the reduction in payments.

The rest of Europe isn't going to be doing that.
There's this idea that some change in prices will force activity out of the Tories. To which I say, people are starving now, that's to death, in the UK. What's a few more?
What's a hundred a week?
Hundred a week are dying of covid now and nobody gives a f**k.

There's great enthusiasm for development land money and roll over on here but that kind of feeds back into that problem there. Everywhere else does that, but the UK's going to be doing less of it, that is less relative to it's potential and less relative to the continent, you know, as a result of the problems I'm not mentioning.

A cumulative three precent difference is fifty percent in thirteen years.

Or you know, the difference between the UK and Slovenia.


Maybe there's going to be a fantastic growth in some sector that offsets all this. I doubt it, maybe the Tories will pump up the housing market to such an extreme level so as to keep the roll over money going and the average price high. I don't know, I really doubt it.

Just what's going to happen is you're going to go on holiday in a European country of your choice after a successful harvest and you are going to find out that your first rate effort isn't so flash across the channel, and that's a problem.
 

midlandslad

Member
Location
Midlands
Does everyone on here see a flush of farms and land coming to the market? The market has been so quiet in recent years there must be a backlog to work through. Particularly as people see the details of the SFI coming through.
 

HAM135

Member
Arable Farmer
Most of the farms coming to market up here in the past few years have sold well,usually closing date set less than a month from release, won't be much decent land sold for less than £10k/ac now,seems to be heading to £15k+ now from recent sales,think my land buying days are over unless I have a lottery win.
 

midlandslad

Member
Location
Midlands
Most of the farms coming to market up here in the past few years have sold well,usually closing date set less than a month from release, won't be much decent land sold for less than £10k/ac now,seems to be heading to £15k+ now from recent sales,think my land buying days are over unless I have a lottery win.
Is that farmers buying with farming money or rollover funds?
 

midlandslad

Member
Location
Midlands
A lot of land purchases are funded by the banks, so so long as the banks taps are kept on this land price inflation will continue. My only concern is affordability are these prices sustainable to farm businesses?
 

ewald

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Mid-Lincs
A lot of land purchases are funded by the banks, so so long as the banks taps are kept on this land price inflation will continue. My only concern is affordability are these prices sustainable to farm businesses?
Land price has not been sustainable for farm businesses for several decades, so no change there.
Land bought by farmers is generally funded by rollover, external funds or accumulated profit from an existing farm.
 

midlandslad

Member
Location
Midlands
Land price has not been sustainable for farm businesses for several decades, so no change there.
Land bought by farmers is generally funded by rollover, external funds or accumulated profit from an existing farm.
Land purchase has not been sustainable from purchased land along I agree but it doesn’t look that straightforward from existing land too in a lot of cases, particularly with dropping BPS, volatile prices, increasing costs and banks that have yet to factor in dropping BPS payments.
 

ewald

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Mid-Lincs
I would agree - it would be a brave man who bought land to farm (and repay from profits) in the current climate.

Which leaves the other classes of buyer, to whom location is often a very important factor - we may may end up with a market of extremes, with purely agricultural land in unfashionable areas difficult to sell
 

midlandslad

Member
Location
Midlands
I would agree - it would be a brave man who bought land to farm (and repay from profits) in the current climate.

Which leaves the other classes of buyer, to whom location is often a very important factor - we may may end up with a market of extremes, with purely agricultural land in unfashionable areas difficult to sell
I think farming will be seen as a less safe lend going forward as the comfort net of the BPS is removed.
 

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