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CRM AgriCommodities

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
UK
The June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates has raised global maize production in 2020/21 to 1188.5MT, up 2MT from the May estimate while global ending stocks have been trimmed slightly to 337.87MT following an increase in consumption. However, US ending stock forecasts have been further increased to 84.41MT from 84.29MT adding to a long term pressured maize outlook.

The June estimates have slightly surprised wheat markets, raising 2020/21 world wheat production outlook to 773.43MT from 768.49MT, and increasing ending stocks by 6MT. However, on closer inspection, while Australian production has been revised up 2Mt to 26Mt, overall major exporters production has been trimmed by 2MT. The EU-28 wheat production estimate at 141MT is down 2MT and Ukraine wheat production forecast at 26.5Mt, down 1.5MT from the optimistic May estimate.

Global soybean supply and demand has been little changed from the May outlook. US soybean ending stocks are forecast slightly down to 10.8MT, from 11MT in May as US crush demand is anticipated to increase.

But providing support to US Soybean markets have been export sales. Net sales last week of 1,004KT for 2019/2020 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 36% from the prior 4-week average. 2020/2021, net sales of 1,213KT were primarily for ‘unknown destinations’ 644KT and China 517KT.

However, oil market pressure could come as Crude oil prices have fallen near 10% as US crude inventories have increased and poor economic outlooks have re-ignited demand concerns.

European rapeseed markets are facing a challenge as France has notified the EU commission that it intends to ban imports of Clearfield herbicide resistant varieties of rapeseed, potentially reducing the ability to import Canadian canola.

Futures & Options prices:
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quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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