Limited scope to export wheat as UK S&D remains tight

AHDB released its latest 2021/22 UK cereal supply and demand estimates this morning. This includes insights into wheat, barley, oats, and maize. Furthermore, both exports and commercial end-season stocks have been estimated, which isn’t usually done until May.

To no surprise, the UK wheat supply and demand picture remains tight. Total 2021/22 wheat availability is now estimated at 16.85Mt, 2.33Mt more than in 2020/21. Wheat availability is down from November’s projections by 35Kt. The reason for this is the final Defra wheat production estimate being revised down. Final production of wheat in 2021 is estimated at 13.988Mt, up by 4.33Mt year-on-year.

Despite higher wheat production year-on-year, availability is still tight this season owing somewhat to the tightest opening stocks this century.

Meanwhile, imports of wheat remain unchanged from November’s estimate of 1.45Mt, 0.98Mt down on the year. From July to November 2021 the UK imported , compared to 1.11Mt over the same period in 2020. Logistical challenges and strong freight rates have been consistent issues for trade this season to date. Import volumes have fallen back from a historically strong start as the season has progressed.

Graph showing UK wheat imports and projections.


At 7.25Mt, human and industrial (H&I) consumption of wheat in 2021/22 is 0.66Mt higher than 2020/21. The increase is largely driven the bioethanol and starch sectors, as a result of the introduction of E10 in September 2021.

Wheat usage in animal feed is expected to increase by 1.28Mt on the year, to 7.28Mt. This returns volumes more in line with the 2018/19 and 2019/20 seasons. The 2021/22 estimate increased from November due to the continued backlog issues facing the livestock sectors, These backlogs are expected to extend into 2022, with herd reductions not being realised until later into 2022.

The balance of total availability and domestic consumption of wheat is estimated at 1.99Mt. This is just 370Kt more than 2020/21 levels and the second lowest this century. Tight opening stocks, coupled with a rebound in consumption to 2018/19 and 2019/20 levels, mean the picture remains relatively tight.

Due to this tightness wheat exports are pegged at 250Kt and commercial end-season stocks are pegged at 1.736Mt, 319Kt more than 2020/21.

For full analysis and figures, be sure to check out the UK cereals supply and demand estimates webpage.

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Limited scope to export wheat as UK S&D remains tight


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