Long term forecasts

[Clive]

Where do people go for their long term weather forecasts

Lots of good services for the week or 10 days ahead etc online but don't see many that try and predict the longer trend


I know accuracy drops a lot as you get further out but its still interesting to read the theory's behind=d what might happen

 

[jondear]

Not heard much from @Simon Keeling lately!

 

[Goweresque]

The best person to talk you through all the various models and what they're saying on a longer term basis and give you a steer as to a possible most likely outcome is Simon Keeling IMO, thats pretty much what he does on his site, plus does constantly updated shorter range forecasts as well:

http://premium.weatherweb.net/

It is pay only now, but its about £150/yr (incl vat) if you pay annually, or £20 per month, so not a kings ransom, and the best recommendation I can give is that I'm happy to pay it.

 

[Will Blackburn]

@Simon Keeling is good at giving you a steer on likely outcomes, well worth it at silage time, when you need a guide on this week or next week or the week after.

 

[jondear]

The best person to talk you through all the various models and what they're saying on a longer term basis and give you a steer as to a possible most likely outcome is Simon Keeling IMO, thats pretty much what he does on his site, plus does constantly updated shorter range forecasts as well:

http://premium.weatherweb.net/

It is pay only now, but its about £150/yr (incl vat) if you pay annually, or £20 per month, so not a kings ransom, and the best recommendation I can give is that I'm happy to pay it.

So it's top secret !Or get the cheque book out!

 

[Still Farming]

3 months heatwave due again.

 

[cattleman123]

The best person to talk you through all the various models and what they're saying on a longer term basis and give you a steer as to a possible most likely outcome is Simon Keeling IMO, thats pretty much what he does on his site, plus does constantly updated shorter range forecasts as well:

http://premium.weatherweb.net/

It is pay only now, but its about £150/yr (incl vat) if you pay annually, or £20 per month, so not a kings ransom, and the best recommendation I can give is that I'm happy to pay it.

Yep same here

 

[hendrebc]

3 months heatwave due again.

Really?

 

[Bob]

Met Jeff seems very accurate or he has been the last couple of years

 

[Simon Keeling]

I'm here chaps! Thanks for the recommendations! Been overwhelmed by the support from the farming community and that means I can publish the Monday and Thursday farming weather video forecast free every Monday and Thursday at www.Weatherweb.net
Could post those Monday and Videos here too if you'd like them?

 

[cattleman123]

I'm here chaps! Thanks for the recommendations! Been overwhelmed by the support from the farming community and that means I can publish the Monday and Thursday farming weather video forecast free every Monday and Thursday at www.Weatherweb.net
Could post those Monday and Videos here too if you'd like them?

Simon great idea ..cheers

 

[Clive]

I'm here chaps! Thanks for the recommendations! Been overwhelmed by the support from the farming community and that means I can publish the Monday and Thursday farming weather video forecast free every Monday and Thursday at www.Weatherweb.net
Could post those Monday and Videos here too if you'd like them?

Are there many websites that publish longer term stuff Simon ? I know its a lot harder but does anyone take a stab at the month ahead vs the week ?

and what kind of accuracy is claimed on such longer forecasts ?

 

[Goweresque]

Are there many websites that publish longer term stuff Simon ? I know its a lot harder but does anyone take a stab at the month ahead vs the week ?

and what kind of accuracy is claimed on such longer forecasts ?

Thats exactly what Simon does, he looks at all the longer range (month, seasonal and beyond) models and tells you what they are saying..........accuracy is as accurate as the models themselves can provide, plus of course the skill/experience of the person looking at the data. So even with the best will in the world, month ahead forecasts are not amazingly accurate, because the models themselves aren't that accurate. But they do give you a steer - week 1 wet, week 2 mixed, week 3&4 dry etc etc. Seasonal forecasts are even more hit and miss too.

My feeling is that the longer range models work within a sort of 'average' parameter set, and thus if the future is a bit like today only slightly different they aren't too bad, but they very rarely spot step changes in things - no models were predicting the hot dry summer last year, even at the beginning of June. They always tend towards average conditions the longer out you go.

The only forecaster who does provide predictions of more extreme weather events at a longer distance is Piers Corbyn whose predictions are based on his own weather model that incorporates the sun I think, and his forecasting record is hit and miss as well. The material he provides is incredibly unreadable, its not well laid out IMO, and difficult to understand exactly what he's suggesting. Its also full of hyperbole, so of which is sometimes justified, but also often not........I did subscribe to his website for the summer months for a few years but gave up when Simon turned up on TFF.

 

[Pilatus]

Slightly off topic ,I always wonder which weather forecasts the supermaket chains use, for supply chain planning .
I suppose as long as they can get pretty accurate “weekly forecasts” they can cope with ordering more salad produce if it looks as though weather turning hot. I suppose the grower at the beginning of the supply chain is the one that needs the “long range” forecast, so as try and predict demand from ruthless supermarkets.

 

[Clive]

Thats exactly what Simon does, he looks at all the longer range (month, seasonal and beyond) models and tells you what they are saying..........accuracy is as accurate as the models themselves can provide, plus of course the skill/experience of the person looking at the data. So even with the best will in the world, month ahead forecasts are not amazingly accurate, because the models themselves aren't that accurate. But they do give you a steer - week 1 wet, week 2 mixed, week 3&4 dry etc etc. Seasonal forecasts are even more hit and miss too.

My feeling is that the longer range models work within a sort of 'average' parameter set, and thus if the future is a bit like today only slightly different they aren't too bad, but they very rarely spot step changes in things - no models were predicting the hot dry summer last year, even at the beginning of June. They always tend towards average conditions the longer out you go.

The only forecaster who does provide predictions of more extreme weather events at a longer distance is Piers Corbyn whose predictions are based on his own weather model that incorporates the sun I think, and his forecasting record is hit and miss as well. The material he provides is incredibly unreadable, its not well laid out IMO, and difficult to understand exactly what he's suggesting. Its also full of hyperbole, so of which is sometimes justified, but also often not........I did subscribe to his website for the summer months for a few years but gave up when Simon turned up on TFF.

any websites that offer long term opinion that are not subscription ?

 

[Clive]

Slightly off topic ,I always wonder which weather forecasts the supermaket chains use, for supply chain planning .
I suppose as long as they can get pretty accurate “weekly forecasts” they can cope with ordering more salad produce if it looks as though weather turning hot. I suppose the grower at the beginning of the supply chain is the one that needs the “long range” forecast, so as try and predict demand from ruthless supermarkets.

The best forecast we use is the Clear Ag service we get as part of the paid for Rhiza contour system - it's tailored for ag and hyper local and very good

I imaging its the kind of service supermarkets use but tailored for them

its not long term though - juts next 10 days

 

[Goweresque]

any websites that offer long term opinion that are not subscription ?

I think in weather forecasting terms, like in so many others, an opinion is worth no more than you pay for it, sometimes less.........

 

[Pilatus]

I am wondering where the “Sun” have got their forecast for headlines today, saying 26c next weekend, when max Met office is forecasting for Cirencester is 12c??
Ps I do not buy the “Sun” newspaper just glanced at it when in the fuel station.

 

[landslave the 2nd]

any websites that offer long term opinion that are not subscription ?

Yes
I use www.netweather.tv
Go to forum section , then model output ,need to sort the wheat from the chaff but some very intellectual posters including people who work at Exeter ,bbc and teach meteorology

 

[Pilatus]

Yes
I use www.netweather.tv
Go to forum section , then model output ,need to sort the wheat from the chaff but some very intellectual posters including people who work at Exeter ,bbc and teach meteorology

Back in the winter @MrNoo also mentioned that he uses the Netweather forum section in a similar way to yourself.