Looming food crisis,what can uk ag industry do?

Cowabunga

Member
Location
Ceredigion,Wales
where from ? Global food stocks are well down, which mean prices everywhere are up, get a nice juicy bad weather event, and watch prices take off.
If anyone thinks l am a hard nosed ###### for my views, its exactly what the big retailers have done to us, for years.
This is only the very beginning. It’s going to get rough, especially in poorer countries, although the poor in the UK will not escape either shortages or extremely high food prices when available.

 

Ffermer Bach

Member
Livestock Farmer
What concerns me about reducing inputs across the whole presently cropped area is wasted potential and overhead per ton grown. It takes as much effort and fuel to grow a ton to the acre without nitrogen as it does to grow 3 ton per acre with nitrogen. Cutting nitrogen rates will increase the carbon foot print and cost of each ton grown as most of the inputs will be unchanged. I suppose reducing cropped area to maintain nitrogen rates would be more operationally efficient but then overheads would be spread across less acres.
The works faced mass starvation around the early 1900’s. The Haber Bosch process saved us. I really can’t see anything replacing it at the moment that will sustain current population levels. By all means we could organic but I reckon we’d need to reduce the population by about 75% first.
just watched this, on youtube, think he said 1 or 2 billion people are going to be really in deep trouble.

 

wrenbird

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
HR2
Slightly off topic.
The general public seem to complain about the price of food , fuel and essentials going up, but they don’t complain about the price of non essentials going up in price,eg cars and latest iPhones etc,etc. :banghead: :scratchhead:
Cars, clothes, iPhones, even holidaying in the "right" place, are all status symbols, you have to spend big on the right stuff, how else are you going to keep up with the Jones of this world.
That is how shallow most peoples modern lives have become, style over substance, trinkets over necessities. Food isn't important enough to show off about, it's just fuel you order on an app on your iPhone to be delivered by a spotty youth on a moped.
 

7610 super q

Never Forgotten
Honorary Member
Slightly off topic.
The general public seem to complain about the price of food , fuel and essentials going up, but they don’t complain about the price of non essentials going up in price,eg cars and latest iPhones etc,etc. :banghead: :scratchhead:
I've noticed this with farmers though.........grumbling about the price of grain / straw / fert , yet £120k for a tractor, £300k for a combine, or even £20k for a hedgecutter is perfectly acceptable.. 🤷‍♂️
 

DaveGrohl

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Cumbria
I've noticed this with farmers though.........grumbling about the price of grain / straw / fert , yet £120k for a tractor, £300k for a combine, or even £20k for a hedgecutter is perfectly acceptable.. 🤷‍♂️
Can you quote anyone as saying those prices are acceptable? Paying an inflated price and being happy about paying it aren’t necessarily the same thing…..
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
For me it’s not the case that I’ll sit on resources and wilfully cut production to force up prices.

It’s the case that I won’t bet the farm or bust a gut to produce at any cost until I see real commitment from suppliers and customers to meet me half way.

The reality is that my production levels will most likely be limited by simple lack of availability of fertilisers and there isn’t really much I can do about that, Mr Eustace. Those fertiliser plants need to be up and running sharpish. We could manage without base fertilisers for a year but we really can’t manage without nitrogen fertilisers.
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
and that is guv policy, all the above, is taxable, food is not.
that is why the forthcoming food inflation, is going to have 'unexpected' consequences.
consumers assume the foreign holiday, modern cars, latest phones etc, are a basic right, we saw how angry people were, during covid, when they couldn't go off to the sun, some even claiming a breech of their 'rights'.

Not only will people be in a state of uproar, because their disposable income, is no more, if it ever was there, due to higher food costs, the guv tax income will drop. Industries in the 'luxury' or non essential trades, will suffer as well.

In many ways, economics, desperately needed a re-set of priorities, peoples expectations of life have become surreal. Not surprising in many ways, a lot of jobs are soul destroyingly boring, and those holidays, or luxury goods, are all they have, to look forward to. Never forgotten a job, a friend took, as a holiday job, a chair, a buzzer, and earphones, the buzzer went every 14 minutes, and he had to put a new roll of paper in a machine, the noise was constant, he could not even see, anyone else, talk to people, his life was governed by that buzzer. We, on the other hand, have jobs we can enjoy, and build up, improve etc.

Personally, l think a re-set is probably a good thing, a re-arrangement of priorities, but am certain it isn't going to be popular. Something has to happen, to return to a more sustainable way of life. How guv can achieve that, without lynch mobs, no idea at all.
 

DaveGrohl

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Cumbria
just watched this, on youtube, think he said 1 or 2 billion people are going to be really in deep trouble.

Crikey. That’s piqued my interest, I may watch the full video later. I think he’s maybe getting a little carried away with some points but there’s a hell of a lot to think about in there, and I can’t really disagree with anything he’s saying. We’re in for a turbulent decade or two.
 

DaveGrohl

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Cumbria
For me it’s not the case that I’ll sit on resources and wilfully cut production to force up prices.

It’s the case that I won’t bet the farm or bust a gut to produce at any cost until I see real commitment from suppliers and customers to meet me half way.

The reality is that my production levels will most likely be limited by simple lack of availability of fertilisers and there isn’t really much I can do about that, Mr Eustace. Those fertiliser plants need to be up and running sharpish. We could manage without base fertilisers for a year but we really can’t manage without nitrogen fertilisers.
It really isn’t rocket science is it? There will quite simply be less food produced in this country and everywhere else, mainly due to the price and availability of fert but also other factors that have been brewing for years. Nothing we can do about it. No one’s yet come up with a reason for any of us to bust a gut and put our businesses on the line, not that there’s a damn thing we could do anyway.
 

Ffermer Bach

Member
Livestock Farmer
It really isn’t rocket science is it? There will quite simply be less food produced in this country and everywhere else, mainly due to the price and availability of fert but also other factors that have been brewing for years. Nothing we can do about it. No one’s yet come up with a reason for any of us to bust a gut and put our businesses on the line, not that there’s a damn thing we could do anyway.
and, it is still government policy to reduce food production in the UK. The Welsh Assembly Government are still crowing about taking farm land out of production and planting it with trees. Still top slicing farm subsidies for Glastir, and using Glastir money to subsidise multinational companies to buy farms and plant them with trees. Until the government start to prioritise food production, not our problem.
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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    Votes: 30 15.9%
  • 50-75%

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  • 75-100%

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  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

    Votes: 7 3.7%

Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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