loss of production due to ELMS

[spin cycle]

following on from the MOS thread and after doing some calcs for a new stewardship agreement for my own little place i thought i'd have a shot / stick my neck out viz what i think ELMS will mean for uk agric output

the figures are a bit fag packet but will not be that far out.....we'll take 100ac block of arable....bps £9k...5% efa ...rest producing 3.5t ac of wheat so 332.5t annually.....we'll use the stewardship arable wildlife offer to replace the bps

category 1....we'll have 1ha of nectar flower mix (2 plots) and 1ha of flower rich margins.....total £1050

category 2 .....easy cos gotta have winter wild bird food.....we'll have 5 ha (largest individual block)....total £3200

category 3....supplementary winter wild bird feeding (takes no ground but does cost money).....2.5t ....total £1264

now it gets a little more complicated,,,,we could choose options such as legume fallow that could raise yield post option but cost....or simple enhanced stubble or cultivated areas for arable plants that don't....plus a lot more other options ....we'll take 2ha each of my 3 suggestions for this example and this nets us £2980.....our total is £8500 ish.....the last £500 we'll say is made up by hedges...bit of buffering ect....nowt measurable really

so the good news is we still get £9k of subsidy for these public goods....but ,the bad news, it's taken 13ha or 32 ac of ground to do it.....our remaining 68 ac produces 238t of wheat......over 100t less than before

let the mutilation of my figures begin

 

[Smith31]

When has anything that has come out of London, ever made sense?

For example haulage companies are having to sell off fleets of perfectly good wagons, just so that they can enter large cities and avoid congestion charges. Not much thought goes into policies, as those who make them have never operated a profitable business.

 

[An Gof]

following on from the MOS thread and after doing some calcs for a new stewardship agreement for my own little place i thought i'd have a shot / stick my neck out viz what i think ELMS will mean for uk agric output

the figures are a bit fag packet but will not be that far out.....we'll take 100ac block of arable....bps £9k...5% efa ...rest producing 3.5t ac of wheat so 332.5t annually.....we'll use the stewardship arable wildlife offer to replace the bps

category 1....we'll have 1ha of nectar flower mix (2 plots) and 1ha of flower rich margins.....total £1050

category 2 .....easy cos gotta have winter wild bird food.....we'll have 5 ha (largest individual block)....total £3200

category 3....supplementary winter wild bird feeding (takes no ground but does cost money).....2.5t ....total £1264

now it gets a little more complicated,,,,we could choose options such as legume fallow that could raise yield post option but cost....or simple enhanced stubble or cultivated areas for arable plants that don't....plus a lot more other options ....we'll take 2ha each of my 3 suggestions for this example and this nets us £2980.....our total is £8500 ish.....the last £500 we'll say is made up by hedges...bit of buffering ect....nowt measurable really

so the good news is we still get £9k of subsidy for these public goods....but ,the bad news, it's taken 13ha or 32 ac of ground to do it.....our remaining 68 ac produces 238t of wheat......over 100t less than before

let the mutilation of my figures begin

So you have the payment equivalent back but what about the Gross Margin loss on 32% of the farm?
I think you need to produce a full partial budget, don't expect the outcome to be pretty

 

[GeorgeK]

Looks like they will pay for direct drilling and using less fertiliser too. These will fit in well with food production but also knock output down a bit more.
Hard to speculate how much land will go into ELMS without knowing what they'll pay, and it could be a few years before we have any idea

 

[spin cycle]

So you have the payment equivalent back but what about the Gross Margin loss on 32% of the farm?
I think you need to produce a full partial budget, don't expect the outcome to be pretty

i think that's one my intended points

 

[Steevo]

following on from the MOS thread and after doing some calcs for a new stewardship agreement for my own little place i thought i'd have a shot / stick my neck out viz what i think ELMS will mean for uk agric output

the figures are a bit fag packet but will not be that far out.....we'll take 100ac block of arable....bps £9k...5% efa ...rest producing 3.5t ac of wheat so 332.5t annually.....we'll use the stewardship arable wildlife offer to replace the bps

category 1....we'll have 1ha of nectar flower mix (2 plots) and 1ha of flower rich margins.....total £1050

category 2 .....easy cos gotta have winter wild bird food.....we'll have 5 ha (largest individual block)....total £3200

category 3....supplementary winter wild bird feeding (takes no ground but does cost money).....2.5t ....total £1264

now it gets a little more complicated,,,,we could choose options such as legume fallow that could raise yield post option but cost....or simple enhanced stubble or cultivated areas for arable plants that don't....plus a lot more other options ....we'll take 2ha each of my 3 suggestions for this example and this nets us £2980.....our total is £8500 ish.....the last £500 we'll say is made up by hedges...bit of buffering ect....nowt measurable really

so the good news is we still get £9k of subsidy for these public goods....but ,the bad news, it's taken 13ha or 32 ac of ground to do it.....our remaining 68 ac produces 238t of wheat......over 100t less than before

let the mutilation of my figures begin

100t wheat at £150/t = £15k.

So you've lost £15k to gain £9k.

Ok you don't have costs of growing wheat on the 32ac....yet the 68ac is now carrying a greater proportion of the fixed costs.

Oh, and to get your £9k you still have to spend a few thousand I'm sure.

 

[spin cycle]

100t wheat at £150/t = £15k.

So you've lost £15k to gain £9k.

Ok you don't have costs of growing wheat on the 32ac....yet the 68ac is now carrying a greater proportion of the fixed costs.

Oh, and to get your £9k you still have to spend a few thousand I'm sure.

TBF some options are cheaper than others....but the supplementary wild bird feeding looks marginal....i just included as i was trying to use less ground

on fixed costs do you then say 'sod it' i won't claim?........or go the other way with more enviro options and slash my labour/machinery?......landowner contract farmers and landowners owning land let on fbt are going to severely tempted by the latter? ......with the lost production can the ancillary/supply trade survive?

 

[DRC]

This is exactly the sort of calculations I’ve been doing . ELMs won’t replace BPS, despite want they want you to believe, and you can bet your bottom dollar that the cost of seed mixes for these options will go up as companies realise it’s another gravy train.

 

[An Gof]

See I told you we needed a full and detailed partial budget

 

[spin cycle]

See I told you we needed a full and detailed partial budget

you'll have to wait til i've finished this ciggie pack

 

[DRC]

you'll have to wait til i've finished this ciggie pack

You don’t need subs if you can afford to smoke !!

 

[An Gof]

you'll have to wait til i've finished this ciggie pack

Is it 10 Players No6 or 20?

I want a detailed job ??

 

[spin cycle]

Is it 10 Players No6 or 20?

I want a detailed job ??

look i know i'm probably best known for my 'comedy' on here ....but once...just for once i was trying to have a thread proving i could do serious stuff....oh well i tried

inside a 30g amber leaf rolling baccy packet ,,,,have to use a felt tip pen

 

[An Gof]

look i know i'm probably best known for my 'comedy' on here ....but once...just for once i was trying to have a thread proving i could do serious stuff....oh well i tried

inside a 30g amber leaf rolling baccy packet ,,,,have to use a felt tip pen

No it was serious ? and that’s why it would be really helpful to have a full, detailed, partial budget ....... cos I think we are about to be shafted on this Elms malarkey.

 

[Mixedupfarmer]

I am in the same position considering renewing mid tier. Entering mid tier for five more years does nothing to replace BPS as the payment rates are the same as the last five years, when full BPS was paid. In addition, costs have risen associated with the scheme, and will continue to do so. It doesn't mean its financially wrong to renew, but it wont help profitability unless crop and stock margins over the next five years deteriorate, but they may improve? The only attractive bit is funding for capital items, if you need them anyway. I still cannot see why rates for the scheme have not been increased for the next five years to encourage uptake, funded by some of the BPS reduction monies, if this is the direction we are to be encouraged to in the future?

 

[GeorgeK]

This is exactly the sort of calculations I’ve been doing . ELMs won’t replace BPS, despite want they want you to believe, and you can bet your bottom dollar that the cost of seed mixes for these options will go up as companies realise it’s another gravy train.

I'm not sure there will be a gravy train in ELMS because they are expecting a whole lot more done for the same budget. On top of this they are talking about flexible payment rates to adjust demand, so if it's more profitable than food production and uptake is too high they will reduce payments

 

[Hindsight]

look i know i'm probably best known for my 'comedy' on here ....but once...just for once i was trying to have a thread proving i could do serious stuff....oh well i tried

inside a 30g amber leaf rolling baccy packet ,,,,have to use a felt tip pen

Spin - you have ventured out again into the wider world of TFF - is it safe for you!!!!

I follow your figures. ELMS is no intended as a replacement for BPS £90acre. I am slightly disconcerted a few posters on a few threads on TFF seem to consider that is the purpose of ELMS.

My fag packet and pencil comes up with same sums, however much I keep rubbing out and replacing the numbers!

Best wishes,

 

[Hindsight]

I'm not sure there will be a gravy train in ELMS because they are expecting a whole lot more done for the same budget. On top of this they are talking about flexible payment rates to adjust demand, so if it's more profitable than food production and uptake is too high they will reduce payments

Mid Tier was intended to be competitive - but the lack of applications (until 2020??) scuppered that. So it is a continuation of policy.

 

[B'o'B]

Page 42 of the recent policy document says quite clearly ELMS is a replacement for Stewardship Schemes not BPS

 

[GeorgeK]

Up to this point my Farm Special calculator has always got the numbers to add up. It doubles the values for quality of life and rising land prices and ignores notional rent and return on investment. Unfortunately it's now obsolete and doesn't appear compatible with ELMS, it just says "DOES NOT COMPUTE". Stupid calculator, need a new one