Macron floats European ‘community’ open to Ukraine and UK

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
I think this is a symptom of the EU not being trusted to guarantee the security of its member states. I can't see either Finland or Sweden leaving the EU in the short-medium term, that simply isn't going to happen, but I do see it as a recognition that the EU isn't the answer to all problems over there on the continent.

Anyway, and politics aside, very glad to see this because it will give two more Baltic democracies a bit of extra security before they take the plunge and join NATO. It's something we should have done, it is the right thing to do and I hope others will too, and hats off to to the Swedes and Finns for not kowtowing to Putin.
 

nivilla1982

Member
Livestock Farmer

I think fair to conclude a very strong Baltic focus emerging in UK defence policy. UK-Poland pact in 2018, UK-Poland-Ukraine trilateral pact in Feb, doubling of EfP in Estonia in March, JEF activity ramping up, and now new agreements with Finland & Sweden.
 

Muck Spreader

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Limousin
No I mean the reference I gave to the very well documented - and published! - speech he made in Zurich which was well know long before Brexit was even thought of, or the EU existed. (y)
The speech is about his view on the urgent need for the formation of a United States of Europe It doesn't mention the UK's role either in or out of such a grouping. Although, the way it's written you don't get the feeling he could see the UK's as being anymore than advisory rather than participatory in 1946.
 

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
The speech is about his view on the urgent need for the formation of a United States of Europe It doesn't mention the UK's role either in or out of such a grouping. Although, the way it's written you don't get the feeling he could see the UK's as being anymore than advisory rather than participatory in 1946.
It is, you're right, and it is best read in conjunction with his other references to the subject. The common theme throughout is a 'united' continental Europe, in whatever form, and a separate Anglosphere in two parts.
 

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
@Muck Spreader I chatted with a chum in France at lunchtime, he voted for but does not like Macron and is very pro EU, but not to the point of ending the nation states. We talked about the coming NATO enlargement and the UK acting as a security guarantor yesterday, and he said something like:

'I can't believe it that the UK has effectively brought them under its nuclear umbrella, what the f*ck is Macron doing? It should be France offering that, what message is this sending when we talk to Putin and the only country to leave the EU is offering these countries more security than any of us?'

(My paraphrasing in part, because, poor fellow, my French is actually better than his English... :woot: :ROFLMAO:)

Obviously this raised a smile from me; but he's a serious fellow, fairly political, well connected etc. etc. and he thinks France is not pulling its weight in this matter, to put it mildly. He's a realist, so he didn't claim that everyone in France thinks this, but he reckons that Macron is going to face a fair bit of internal opposition from EUrophiles in both his party and France as a whole, unless he starts to be more proactive regarding the Eastern and, now, the Baltic states.

He agrees with most of my analysis of what Macron should be doing - from a pro-France and pro-EU perspective I mean - really only differing in that he thinks there should be an EU based QRF in parallel to NATO.

I think that's barking, firstly because from a NATO perspective it just drains resources; secondly, because it would really p!ss off non EU NATO members; and thirdly because it simply couldn't hope to match or even come close to anything NATO could do, so would make its participants look not only like splitters, but laughable ones too.

Your thoughts...?
 

HatsOff

Member
Mixed Farmer
Maintaining a united front with all EU members is possibly what is holding France back slightly. But overall the economic clout a united EU response can achieve is more than what the UK can do. Also the UK's security guarantee is nice, but is pretty meaningless if it hasn't been agreed with, and backed up by, American commitment.
 

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
Maintaining a united front with all EU members is possibly what is holding France back slightly. But overall the economic clout a united EU response can achieve is more than what the UK can do. Also the UK's security guarantee is nice, but is pretty meaningless if it hasn't been agreed with, and backed up by, American commitment.
Not really, but that's your line, so I guess you're going to stick to it. 😐
 

HatsOff

Member
Mixed Farmer
Not really, but that's your line, so I guess you're going to stick to it. 😐

I just don't think there's a huge amount the British military could achieve against Russia without NATO. It's a distance away so it'd require power projection and the armed forces have been getting smaller and smaller in recent years. Don;t get me wrong - a very short campaign with tight focus would absolutely be achievable and effective. But fighting Russia will require a lot, lot more than Britain can sustain currently. Or nuclear weapons, but then if we used those without America's blessing, they'd be the last ones we ever used.
 

Muck Spreader

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Limousin
@Muck Spreader I chatted with a chum in France at lunchtime, he voted for but does not like Macron and is very pro EU, but not to the point of ending the nation states. We talked about the coming NATO enlargement and the UK acting as a security guarantor yesterday, and he said something like:

'I can't believe it that the UK has effectively brought them under its nuclear umbrella, what the f*ck is Macron doing? It should be France offering that, what message is this sending when we talk to Putin and the only country to leave the EU is offering these countries more security than any of us?'

(My paraphrasing in part, because, poor fellow, my French is actually better than his English... :woot: :ROFLMAO:)

Obviously this raised a smile from me; but he's a serious fellow, fairly political, well connected etc. etc. and he thinks France is not pulling its weight in this matter, to put it mildly. He's a realist, so he didn't claim that everyone in France thinks this, but he reckons that Macron is going to face a fair bit of internal opposition from EUrophiles in both his party and France as a whole, unless he starts to be more proactive regarding the Eastern and, now, the Baltic states.

He agrees with most of my analysis of what Macron should be doing - from a pro-France and pro-EU perspective I mean - really only differing in that he thinks there should be an EU based QRF in parallel to NATO.

I think that's barking, firstly because from a NATO perspective it just drains resources; secondly, because it would really p!ss off non EU NATO members; and thirdly because it simply couldn't hope to match or even come close to anything NATO could do, so would make its participants look not only like splitters, but laughable ones too.

Your thoughts...?

I think Johnson's nuclear umbrella is really just gesture politics, so doesn't really count for anything much as neither country would be as high as the UK on Putin's attack list.. But the fact he went to sign and show support with them does lay a marker down to Putin. Although, Macron purportedly said to Putin at the start of the year, 'touch Finland and we will nuke you'.

It's difficult to tell how proactive France is actually being as they doesn't publicize much. Apart from supplying weapons and equipment, it does have a sizable joint contingent along with Belgium on the border in Rumania as well in Estonia and Norway with other Nato members. It also has a battle group in the Eastern Med that are patrolling Rumanian airspace. But you get the feeling Macron is probably holding back atm to buy Germany time to sort their stupid energy mess out.
 

le bon paysan

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Limousin, France
I think Johnson's nuclear umbrella is really just gesture politics, so doesn't really count for anything much as neither country would be as high as the UK on Putin's attack list.. But the fact he went to sign and show support with them does lay a marker down to Putin. Although, Macron purportedly said to Putin at the start of the year, 'touch Finland and we will nuke you'.

It's difficult to tell how proactive France is actually being as they doesn't publicize much. Apart from supplying weapons and equipment, it does have a sizable joint contingent along with Belgium on the border in Rumania as well in Estonia and Norway with other Nato members. It also has a battle group in the Eastern Med that are patrolling Rumanian airspace. But you get the feeling Macron is probably holding back atm to buy Germany time to sort their stupid energy mess out.
Also, holding the EU Presidency means he has to be careful what he says as heading the EU and as President of France. .

Another thing, the agreement to support Sweden , has Boris read it and does Boris want to renegotiate it when it doesn't suit him?
 

arcobob

Member
Location
Norfolk
Also, holding the EU Presidency means he has to be careful what he says as heading the EU and as President of France. .

Another thing, the agreement to support Sweden , has Boris read it and does Boris want to renegotiate it when it doesn't suit him?
You are trying to kill two birds with one stone. The key point is the duplicity which emanates from trying to wear two faces at the same time.
 

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