Market Position Prior to October WASDE

[CRM AgriCommodities]

​ Market Position Prior to October WASDE Tomorrow will see the release of the October USDA WASDE. The October WASDE will be closely watched with multiple changes anticipated following the shock reductions to US grain and oilseed stocks, increased confidence in a larger Russian wheat crop, dryness in Argentina and building chances of a La Nina event. Wheat / Barley Prior to tomorrows USDA WASDE, the latest Gain report for China is forecasting 2020/21 feed and residual use for all coarse grains and feed-quality wheat to increase by 6.8MT, a 3.2 percent increase over 2019/20, based on projected swine restocking and strong growth in the poultry and ruminant sectors. Overall feed demand is forecast to recover to the 2017/18 level at around 218.9MT. Estimates for wheat imports are left at 7MT, but still up from the 5.4MT in 2019/20. Barley imports are forecast at 5MT, marginally down from the 5.3MT in 2019/20. Defra’s provisional UK area, yield and production figures for harvest 2020 continue to estimate a wheat crop of 10.1MT, 8.4MT of barley and 1.1MT of OSR. Yet with a lack of 2020 harvest data for Wales, Northern Ireland and estimates for Scotland, actual production is likely to be lower. The Russian Agricultural Ministry has upgraded its forecast for 2020/21 grain export by 5MT to 50MT. With an estimated 14MT of wheat already exported, the proposed export quota from Jan-June is thought to be in the region of 20MT, and be largely academic given the pace of wheat exports so far. Weekly US net export sales of 530.6KT for 2020/2021 were up 5% from the previous week and 27% from the prior 4-week average. Corn / Maize Yesterday’s US ethanol production figures provided some hope for a recovery in demand, rising to 923Kbarrels of ethanol per day, production reversed the previous three weeks’ worth of declines. However still remain below levels recorded on the 11th of September. Weekly US net export sales of 1.226MT for 2020/2021 were primarily for Japan 360KT with a slowing of sales to China. While exports of 935KT were primarily to China. Oilseeds & Oil As soybean markets continue to gain as fund money flows into US corn and oilseed futures, demand remains highly focused on export sales. Weekly net export sales of 2.591MT for 2020/2021 were primarily for China (1.538MT. Exports of 2.067MT were primarily to China (1.385MT). Daily export sales of 374KT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year, 152KT to Mexico and 132KT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year have maintained support today ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE. Click here for a Graintab Trial​ ​