Frontier Agriculture
Member
World markets
There were only small changes to US wheat yesterday. The forecasts for this week show little change and are still largely dry with low temperatures, but into next week temperatures start to improve across the south east and into Canada which should help field work to get going. Last night’s crop ratings showed US spring drilling at only 3% complete versus 21% this time last year but the consensus seems to be that they can catch up if the weather improves as indicated in next week’s forecasts. Winter wheat crop ratings were unchanged at 31% good to excellent versus 54% last year, 13% of the crop is headed versus 30% last year. The prolonged drought has had, and is having, an impact on the potential of US winter wheat crops.
Matif wheat closed unchanged yesterday after a very quiet day with no real direction from the US or from currency moves. Weather forecasts show some head building in Central Europe and dry conditions in Russia but no real flags for crop issues at this stage.
UK markets
London wheat followed the theme from the US and EU yesterday with little change. May 18 closed £0.20/t higher on the day and November was unchanged.
UK weather has returned to more normal spring conditions with some rain in places this week which, after last week’s heat helped to dry land out, is ideal for spring drilled crops that have gone in and will now get a drink. The South of England is making good progress and, although undoubtedly a late spring, most are getting caught up. Further North is later still, with heavy land taking longer to dry up and still some land that won’t get drilled this spring.
The biggest change in the UK dynamic over the past few weeks has been imported wheat making starting to make its way into the UK. With a stronger sterling, reaching pre-Brexit levels on its best day last week, and strong northern demand pushing domestic wheat values up, imported wheat has been price competitive and this will serve to cap old crop markets.
For new crop wheat, the biggest driver is still the weather with the problem areas overseas well documented and the UK crop itself looking average after the late, wet spring.
There were only small changes to US wheat yesterday. The forecasts for this week show little change and are still largely dry with low temperatures, but into next week temperatures start to improve across the south east and into Canada which should help field work to get going. Last night’s crop ratings showed US spring drilling at only 3% complete versus 21% this time last year but the consensus seems to be that they can catch up if the weather improves as indicated in next week’s forecasts. Winter wheat crop ratings were unchanged at 31% good to excellent versus 54% last year, 13% of the crop is headed versus 30% last year. The prolonged drought has had, and is having, an impact on the potential of US winter wheat crops.
Matif wheat closed unchanged yesterday after a very quiet day with no real direction from the US or from currency moves. Weather forecasts show some head building in Central Europe and dry conditions in Russia but no real flags for crop issues at this stage.
UK markets
London wheat followed the theme from the US and EU yesterday with little change. May 18 closed £0.20/t higher on the day and November was unchanged.
UK weather has returned to more normal spring conditions with some rain in places this week which, after last week’s heat helped to dry land out, is ideal for spring drilled crops that have gone in and will now get a drink. The South of England is making good progress and, although undoubtedly a late spring, most are getting caught up. Further North is later still, with heavy land taking longer to dry up and still some land that won’t get drilled this spring.
The biggest change in the UK dynamic over the past few weeks has been imported wheat making starting to make its way into the UK. With a stronger sterling, reaching pre-Brexit levels on its best day last week, and strong northern demand pushing domestic wheat values up, imported wheat has been price competitive and this will serve to cap old crop markets.
For new crop wheat, the biggest driver is still the weather with the problem areas overseas well documented and the UK crop itself looking average after the late, wet spring.