Milk Price Tracker

Jdunn55

Member
Muller offer 29p fixed price deal for 3 years on 50% of milk production along with Lidl

Would have said that needs to be atleast 30ppl to be worthwhile, I always wonder why these contracts get offered and always come to the conclusion that they think the milk price is going to go upwards and want to continue paying us peanuts
 

Rossymons

Member
Location
Cornwall
Would have said that needs to be atleast 30ppl to be worthwhile, I always wonder why these contracts get offered and always come to the conclusion that they think the milk price is going to go upwards and want to continue paying us peanuts

Or they could get it totally wrong and it drops.

If you were able to produce milk consistently for less than 25ppl being guaranteed half your milk cheque for the next 3 years might sound tempting.
 

Jdunn55

Member
There is that but imo, I would need to be able to fix the price on the biggest costs for the next 3 years as well in order for it to be worth my while otherwise theres no guarantee that I can produce that milk for 25ppl
ie: I would have to be able to fix the price on half of my cake,
buy enough fertiliser to last me for the next 3 years, enough straw for youngstock,
all my seed required,
Enough silage sheet/wrap/net for 3 years
fix the price on half my diesel etc.
Thats just off the top of my head but unless I could guarantee the price on half of my total costs too it's still a no go for me personally
 
Location
West Wales
50% at 29p, 50% at 21p, doesn’t leave much, especially as input prices have and are rocketing.
Exactly this. The way some dairies have behaved of late I wouldn’t put it past them to screw you by letting you fix half then having a different price to the rest for your other 50%.
I would also assume that if you agreed for 3 years you would have to honour that contract and stay?
 
Exactly this. The way some dairies have behaved of late I wouldn’t put it past them to screw you by letting you fix half then having a different price to the rest for your other 50%.
I would also assume that if you agreed for 3 years you would have to honour that contract and stay?
Indeed, they could manipulate the average price to be whatever they wanted but it would look bad if the other half was significantly below the rest of the marketplace
 

frederick

Member
Location
south west
A supermarket offering 29ppl when the nz milk price is projected to be 33 and that supermarket will expect a level 365 supply certainly means they are expecting the second and third year to be very bad for dairy
 

Bramble

Member
Depends if you like the month to month lottery of having your milk price changed. At 29p I’d fix some of my supply if offered those terms. It’s not much different to forward selling crops, all about risk management.

The crops market is more sophisticated in that you can offset some of these forward sales with options etc if you think you might get it wrong. The milk market doesn’t have these risk management tools so taking a forward price is more of a risk.

Speaking as a Freshways supplier 29p is something I haven’t seen for 5 years at least
 
A supermarket offering 29ppl when the nz milk price is projected to be 33 and that supermarket will expect a level 365 supply certainly means they are expecting the second and third year to be very bad for dairy
Current Muller base price is 26.25, rising a penny next month, plus or minus a bit with a few add ons or possibly penalties.
Don’t know wether the 29 will be subject to the add ons/ penalties as well.
Milk price is rising as you say in NZ and faster and from a higher level with Arla back home, it’s all a gamble, we don’t know where the milk price will be come autumn let alone in 2 or 3 years time.
At a guess, Muller have no more idea than me over the longer term but a 3 year fixed price could help them do a 3 year deal with Lidl, knowing one of their biggest costs is fixed
 

Farmer Keith

Member
Location
North Cumbria
Current Muller base price is 26.25, rising a penny next month, plus or minus a bit with a few add ons or possibly penalties.
Don’t know wether the 29 will be subject to the add ons/ penalties as well.
Milk price is rising as you say in NZ and faster and from a higher level with Arla back home, it’s all a gamble, we don’t know where the milk price will be come autumn let alone in 2 or 3 years time.
At a guess, Muller have no more idea than me over the longer term but a 3 year fixed price could help them do a 3 year deal with Lidl, knowing one of their biggest costs is fixed

It would be interesting to see if there base price dropped if a significant number of suppliers took them up on it.
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 75-100%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

    Votes: 6 3.2%

Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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