N prices end UK milling wheat production?

[holwellcourtfarm]

Some fag packet figures:

This article suggests 40kg extra N per ha needed to raise protein levels.
£400/t for urea at 46%N.

87p per kgN.

So that extra 40kg costs £35/ha.

Milling premium of £20/t (if you're lucky) x 8t/ha crop = £160/ha



As @Clive says though, need to factor in the years that you don't hit milling, the potential yield loss from feed varieties, cost of T3 fungicide, extra combining capacity needed to get it in the barn before hagberg falls, and any potential drying that this could entail also.

Not to mention that the milling market almost disappeared earlier this year when the millers decided they would rather import German wheat instead.

Growing feed wheat is much less stressful too.

But, apparently, we have to stop growing arable feed for animals.......

 

[Steevo]

But, apparently, we have to stop growing arable feed for animals.......

.....and also aren't able to dispose of any manures, digestate, sludge or other materials without a growing crop to use it!

 

[Adeptandy]

How does applying 300kg/ha N fit with regen ag?!!!! Use little over half that on feed wheats here….

Black land ?

 

[Woldgrain Storage]

Does the wheat price have a cap?

Some areas of Russia seeing the worst yields in 6 years, (down to below half a tonne/ hectare for the Volga Valley) and the highest August prices for a decade, with rising export taxes being imposed to steady wheat volumes leaving Russia.

Our domestic production is a drop in the ocean .

The Russian total harvest volume has not yet been officially downgraded, with the Russians still claiming 81mmt but the USDA suggesting 72mmt.

 

[Nailbourne]

I’m reducing milling wheat area this coming season. Two traders have indicated a shortage of hard feeds down here in the south east and possibility of £4-5 premiums. So would seem to make sense. Less risk, less N and I hate applying Nufol. Ironically I think milling premiums could rise this season - lower yields, ergot issues and our friendly millers won’t be able to pick up the phone to Herman for a top up this year as their yields are lower too.

 

[Bogweevil]

The premiums for milling are significant over feed grains . . .

View attachment 981061

Given current N prices my calculations say milling wheat is no longer viable vs feed unless premiums increase significantly

anyone else thinking similar ? will everyone grow more feed ?

Interested to see falling N use (according to fertiliser report*):

Nutrient​	Year	winter wheat​	spring barley​	winter barley​	maincrop potatoes 1​	oilseed rape 2​	sugar beet​
Total nitrogen	2016	188​	104​	146​	134​	180​	97​
Total nitrogen	2017	185​	100​	149​	136​	180​	92​
Total nitrogen	2018	186​	101​	143​	143​	188​	82​
Total nitrogen	2019	185​	95​	143​	150​	180​	74​
Total nitrogen	2020	177​	99​	139​	118​	168​	69​

Except spuds - N degrades potato table quality so not good news for consumer

*THE BRITISH SURVEY OF Fertiliser Practice, FERTILISER USE ON FARM CROPS FOR CROP YEAR 2020

 

[Hedger]

I’m reducing milling wheat area this coming season. Two traders have indicated a shortage of hard feeds down here in the south east and possibility of £4-5 premiums. So would seem to make sense. Less risk, less N and I hate applying Nufol. Ironically I think milling premiums could rise this season - lower yields, ergot issues and our friendly millers won’t be able to pick up the phone to Herman for a top up this year as their yields are lower too.

German wheat is still readily available, it currently doesn't price into much of the UK. Also important to note that last season UK wheat priced itself out as the UK consumer remains unwilling to pay more for food.

 

[teslacoils]

German wheat is still readily available, it currently doesn't price into much of the UK. Also important to note that last season UK wheat priced itself out as the UK consumer remains unwilling to pay more for food.

Supermarket could just make less profit....

 

[Steevo]

Ah yes….how much does the wheat content in a loaf of bread cost?

10p…?!

So a 10% increase in wheat prices would lead to a penny more of the cost of a loaf.

Obviously if that happened every UK consumer would stop buying immediately…!

 

[ajd132]

Ah yes….how much does the wheat content in a loaf of bread cost?

10p…?!

So a 10% increase in wheat prices would lead to a penny more of the cost of a loaf.

Obviously if that happened every UK consumer would stop buying immediately…!

Neil fuller puts this across very well in his talks. Calls it the one penny loaf or something like that.

 

[wanton dwarf]

Ah yes….how much does the wheat content in a loaf of bread cost?

10p…?!

So a 10% increase in wheat prices would lead to a penny more of the cost of a loaf.

Obviously if that happened every UK consumer would stop buying immediately…!

Yep. This is my main point about the price of Wheat.

Currently buying a nice loaf of bread at £1.99p

 

[Hedger]

Supermarket could just make less profit....

Have you ever sat and negotiated with a supermarket?

 

[Neddy flanders]

High prices cure high prices..... any crops sown here will not receive much Nitrogen. Simple harvest this year. Late drilling, no herbs, no pgrs, little N. low potential. low risk.
no way Im paying £400 for N to see wheat prices tumble to £120 next year.
biology, legumes, foliars yes. Prilled, No

 

[teslacoils]

Have you ever sat and negotiated with a supermarket?

No.

 

[marshbarn]

Have you ever sat and negotiated with a supermarket?

And this is the problem bean counter accontants who dont realise where there product is coming from

 

[marshbarn]

We stopped going milling wheat back in the 80s . sent a load off protien good hagbege good moisture good , but regetted on coulour . head banger emogi

 

[marshbarn]

And the last chanch on malting barlery , was when i sold above the market and when it came to collection the market had falled and firstl load got regetted and buyer said dont send anymore as it will get regtted as well .re nogotiate the price to fead and we will move

 

[Lincsman]

Seems milling premiums are matching increasing Fert prices, currently... next years are still to be fixed, but more to the point its getting close to a 3t/ac to break even for any wheat... so why even try?

 

[robbie]

And the last chanch on malting barlery , was when i sold above the market and when it came to collection the market had falled and firstl load got regetted and buyer said dont send anymore as it will get regtted as well .re nogotiate the price to fead and we will move

I've had exactly the same thing happen here, it's all feed now.

 

[ajd132]

Seems milling premiums are matching increasing Fert prices, currently... next years are still to be fixed, but more to the point its getting close to a 3t/ac to break even for any wheat... so why even try?

Still no point growing it if if only matches the price. It’s like growing hybrid barley over conventional malting, you get abit more but don’t get any more profit so why put the extra cash on the line.