Next Tory leader

[Muck Spreader]

It was unchalleneged because the 7% figure of gdp is true, are you suggesting that when we leave the SM we arent going to sell a single thing to the EU? No of course youre not, will it have an effect on trade, maybe especially if certain eu countries can block imports to help their own companies, do you remember the excuses to block meat exports etc . It is surprising how banking is held up as the saviour to our economy when it crashed most people wanted ALL bankers taken out and shot as the cause of it, part of the reason they pay a lot of tax is the ridiculous levelsof profits they make from shuffling bits of paper between each other paid for by the people investing in pensions and savings products, paper pushers need to remember they cant spread wealth if there isnt any we need to rebalance our enconomy, which countries are the ones with the best growth rates ? Its the ones that create wealth by making stuff not the pen pushing finance shuffling based ones, yes certain individuals do extremely well out of it, without being personal yoy have done well out of the current system but many many people havent and they voted for change, that may mean some of the "elite" will suffer and they dont like it.

Quite agree with shooting bankers, but unfortunately they are treated a bit like Badgers at the moment. But who is this "elite" who is going to suffer? The elite to me is mostly the likes of Boris, Rees-Mog, Cameron, Murdoch et al, folk who only see the bulk of the population as tool for their own self centred ambitions which are based around power and control.

 

[RobFZS]

It is time that farmers realised that the UK is no longer in the business of making things but that we are a service economy - c. 80% of our GDP is 'services' - and that of the things we do still make, the greatest of these is automotive which is, in itself, is largely a factor of being a 'service' in its combination of assembly of parts made elsewhere and of our position as a gateway into the SM for non -EU manufacturers.

'Re-balancing' such an economy is a myth, pure and simple.

We elected in the 1980's to stop being a primary producer and become a service provider, and that is where we are.

[This is an analysis, not an endorsement].

That idea ended in 2007 when the financial crash started to unravel along with the slowest recovery in decades

When the debt interest payments become our biggest outgoing on the public books, then there will be a rethink of what needs to be created in this country, i give it 10 years

 

[uztrac]

I note with interest that Jacob Rees-Mogg is down to single figures with the bookmakers,some serious money then has been placed on JRM recently.

 

[RobFZS]

he wont get enough nominations to get in to the leadership contest, the tories are a bunch of back stabbing sh1!s and anyone outside of the set clique hasn't got a chance , leadsom for example

 

[Wombat]

I cannot see Jacob Rees Mog getting it, he maybe doesn't try to but he seems to talk down to you when replying to questions

 

[Walterp]

FFS Walter.
Who do you think will benifit most from not having EU subs to pay?
I'll give you a clue.
It won't be the JAM.
And who in the EU will pay the most to make up the shortfall caused by the loss of the UK's contributions.......should they chose to relocate to the continent?

More over-simplification - the next best thing to being in the Single Market is to have 'access' thereto, for which we would have to pay but without having any membership, input or control.

'How much will this cost?' I hear you say - about two thirds of our current contribution, if Norway is any indicator.

Is this 'a good deal'? Or a bad one? by your lights.

 

[Walterp]

The trouble is services dont create wealth they just add cost to those that do, which makes those businesses uncompetitive in the world market, of course some services are needed but the charges are far too high, it just cant carry on the countries that are doing well make things as well as having services, not saying it will be easy but it has to be done

This is very sad.

Germany, perhaps the leading example of successful mercantilism, has a similar services/goods split of its GDP as do we - and as do most advanced nations.

Please reconsider your views, because your prejudice in favour of 'making' things rather than 'doing ' them is no longer rational in the modern world.

 

[rob1]

This is very sad.

Germany, perhaps the leading example of successful mercantilism, has a similar services/goods split of its GDP as do we - and as do most advanced nations.

Please reconsider your views, because your prejudice in favour of 'making' things rather than 'doing ' them is no longer rational in the modern world.

The booming economies such as india,china and other far eastern economies are manufacturing based, the western based ones are being left behind because we are too high cost because of too many sat on their arses in offices . There are two choices either cut out the deadwood and compete or just leave half the population todo nothing and live off the tax receipts from services, banking and investments are just money moving ponzi schemes sooner or later they will implode they did in 2008 next time will the world governments half the cash to bail us out? I used to think like you and believe we could be a non manufacturing high tech economy, the crash showed me that my gut instinct that money movers were not the answer was infact right all along. As MT said socialism is fine until you run out of other peoples money

 

[Ashtree]

The booming economies such as india,china and other far eastern economies are manufacturing based, the western based ones are being left behind because we are too high cost because of too many sat on their arses in offices . There are two choices either cut out the deadwood and compete or just leave half the population todo nothing and live off the tax receipts from services, banking and investments are just money moving ponzi schemes sooner or later they will implode they did in 2008 next time will the world governments half the cash to bail us out? I used to think like you and believe we could be a non manufacturing high tech economy, the crash showed me that my gut instinct that money movers were not the answer was infact right all along. As MT said socialism is fine until you run out of other peoples money

And dear ole MT was the PM who put the City above and beyond all else.

 

[caveman]

More over-simplification - the next best thing to being in the Single Market is to have 'access' thereto, for which we would have to pay but without having any membership, input or control.

'How much will this cost?' I hear you say - about two thirds of our current contribution, if Norway is any indicator.

Is this 'a good deal'? Or a bad one? by your lights.

It really is simple.
Anything you want from the EU isn't worth what I have to pay or forego.

 

[rob1]

And dear ole MT was the PM who put the City above and beyond all else.

she was a fan but she also saved much of industry by sorting the unions, I'm surprised as a you come across as left of centre politics that you support the city and their obscene bonuses and pay structures

 

[Walterp]

The booming economies such as india,china and other far eastern economies are manufacturing based, the western based ones are being left behind because we are too high cost because of too many sat on their arses in offices . There are two choices either cut out the deadwood and compete or just leave half the population todo nothing and live off the tax receipts from services, banking and investments are just money moving ponzi schemes sooner or later they will implode they did in 2008 next time will the world governments half the cash to bail us out? I used to think like you and believe we could be a non manufacturing high tech economy, the crash showed me that my gut instinct that money movers were not the answer was infact right all along. As MT said socialism is fine until you run out of other peoples money

It is a gut instinct among right wing farmers to bemoan the fact that 'we no longer make anything' and point to Germany as a counterpoint. The reality is that most developed Western countries have a predominantly service-based economy because that is what is successful.

The alternative, seeking to compete against cheap-labour Eastern economies, is a fantasy.

It is a popular fantasy, however, on the right wing, because it involves cutting wages, conditions and social benefits. Because that is the inevitable implication of competing with the East.

This is the true driver of Hard Brexit, on the right. It also provides the clue to the conundrum at the heart of Conservative inquiries for a new leader: how do you put an emollient face on a set of nasty policies?

It cannot, of course, be achieved.

 

[Ashtree]

Misunderstanding here. I very far from support any of this unbridled greed and bonus culture in the City! It's not just the City and financial services either. Right across the spectrum in manufacturing and retail etc, the greed at the top is staggering!

Yes, the unions were out of control and needed reigning in. MT I Gus's went too far in both directions. Squashing the unions and allowing the bankers free reign!

The Germans manage the system through consensus. Seems to have worked for them!

 

[rob1]

It is a gut instinct among right wing farmers to bemoan the fact that 'we no longer make anything' and point to Germany as a counterpoint. The reality is that most developed Western countries have a predominantly service-based economy because that is what is successful.

The alternative, seeking to compete against cheap-labour Eastern economies, is a fantasy.

It is a popular fantasy, however, on the right wing, because it involves cutting wages, conditions and social benefits. Because that is the inevitable implication of competing with the East.

This is the true driver of Hard Brexit, on the right. It also provides the clue to the conundrum at the heart of Conservative inquiries for a new leader: how do you put an emollient face on a set of nasty policies?

It cannot, of course, be achieved.

The reason why western countries are service based is because they have priced themselves out of their own markets by having overheads that are way too high, all these over paid consultants, accountants, pr bods and solicitors have killed the golden goose, add in the cost of local and national government and its easy to see how the west have lost the plot, when you see the pensions all these public sector worker have got then its no wonder we are screwed, and yes I do know what they get as my OH will be getting one soon, if the money in the west isnt spread out in a more equitable manner then there is big trouble brewing,

 

[rob1]

Misunderstanding here. I very far from support any of this unbridled greed and bonus culture in the City! It's not just the City and financial services either. Right across the spectrum in manufacturing and retail etc, the greed at the top is staggering!

Yes, the unions were out of control and needed reigning in. MT I Gus's went too far in both directions. Squashing the unions and allowing the bankers free reign!

The Germans manage the system through consensus. Seems to have worked for them!

would agree with that

 

[bobk]

This is the true driver of Hard Brexit, on the right. It also provides the clue to the conundrum at the heart of Conservative inquiries for a new leader: how do you put an emollient face on a set of nasty policies?

It cannot, of course, be achieved.

Of course it can .... because in the hard light of day the EU need us more than we need them.

 

[Ashtree]

Of course it can .... because in the hard light of day the EU need us more than we need them.

In your dreams my dear man. The harsh economic and fiscal adjustment in UK following a crash out would no doubt whatsoever cause years of rising inflation, falling living standards, rising unemployment etc. In the adjustment phase that is. Serious social and political cohesion and cooperation would be required to steer it through. Look around you now!!! Chaos in politics !

Of course EU would also have adjustment problems but diluted over a much larger area and GDP and cohesive political system. That cohesiveness enforced by Brexit as the people quickly dropped the ant EU parties once they saw and got realistic about the consequences of EU falling apart.

 

[Walterp]

Of course it can .... because in the hard light of day the EU need us more than we need them.

I know you are not that stupid, so you are pulling my leg. Well done. I've bitten.

But it's raining outside, so please allow me to put the alternative view about this oft-repeated fantasy that has as its genesis an article by David Davis on Conservative Home in 2016.

1. there is no such country as 'Europe', only a collection of sovereign states that have a huge free trade bloc called the Single Market (largely invented by Mrs Thatcher, in one sense) overseen by a federal Court. It's why, for instance, the morning after pill, or roaming charges, are priced the same everywhere within the EU.

2. the UK's trade balance with each individual country is what affects each state. Individually, each of the other 27 countries has very relatively little to lose by pissing us off, and a great deal to gain in stealing our trade.

3. By far the biggest export/import partner for us is Germany. They are already taking finance business (a couple more banks today going to Frankfurt) and their trade bodies have reached a consensus with Dr Merkel that unity is more important than a bit of lost trade (a woman after my own heart).

4. the actual figures are the clue - we stand to lose c 45% of our exports overnight, whilst the EU as a body stand to lose a few percent. 12% I think, and a lot of that German, which they can easily export somewhere else.

Where else can we export 45% of our 'dead' exports?

 

[rob1]

I know you are not that stupid, so you are pulling my leg. Well done. I've bitten.

But it's raining outside, so please allow me to put the alternative view about this oft-repeated fantasy that has as its genesis an article by David Davis on Conservative Home in 2016.

1. there is no such country as 'Europe', only a collection of sovereign states that have a huge free trade bloc called the Single Market (largely invented by Mrs Thatcher, in one sense) overseen by a federal Court. It's why, for instance, the morning after pill, or roaming charges, are priced the same everywhere within the EU.

2. the UK's trade balance with each individual country is what affects each state. Individually, each of the other 27 countries has very relatively little to lose by pissing us off, and a great deal to gain in stealing our trade.

3. By far the biggest export/import partner for us is Germany. They are already taking finance business (a couple more banks today going to Frankfurt) and their trade bodies have reached a consensus with Dr Merkel that unity is more important than a bit of lost trade (a woman after my own heart).

4. the actual figures are the clue - we stand to lose c 45% of our exports overnight, whilst the EU as a body stand to lose a few percent. 12% I think, and a lot of that German, which they can easily export somewhere else.

Where else can we export 45% of our 'dead' exports?

Have you had too much falling down water ?
We will not lose 45% of our exports overnight, if we have a so called hard brexit then we will just trade on WTO rules, everything we currently sell has to pass safety and conforminity rules so they will still be saleable into the eu, yes some will have tariffs but with the currency down they will still be cheaper in the eu than 2016, whereas all our imports will be dearer plus the tariffs so much harder for them to impot here and dont forget large numbers of people in the eu rely on our exports for jobs, IE the firms that sell and service them .

So the germans will lose a bit of trade which they can "easily" get back well why dont they sell more to those markets now yet we wont be able to sell our lost exports

AS for the morning after pill you cant even get it in many eu countries and the price is totally different in different countries..

 

[Walterp]

The reason why western countries are service based is because they have priced themselves out of their own markets by having overheads that are way too high, all these over paid consultants, accountants, pr bods and solicitors have killed the golden goose, add in the cost of local and national government and its easy to see how the west have lost the plot, when you see the pensions all these public sector worker have got then its no wonder we are screwed, and yes I do know what they get as my OH will be getting one soon, if the money in the west isnt spread out in a more equitable manner then there is big trouble brewing,

You are making two separate points, one of which is described in the Great Gatsby Curve - the UK is compounding various policy mistakes made since 1997 so that a political counter-reaction is now very probably built-in. I don't see how it can be avoided, much though I would like to see it so.

But your second point - that a service based economy is, somehow, inferior to a manufacturing one - is inaccurate, because countries as widely differing as the US, Canada, and Germany have predominantly service-based economies. Even New Zealand has a predominantly service-based economy - it's what developed economies actually look like.

The better suggestion, I propose, is that there is a balance between goods and services that best serve individual countries and their trading preferences.

This leads to the obvious conclusion: a developed country such as the UK, if it wants to increase the manufacture of goods, has to find hi-tech areas in which it has an advantage over Eastern competitors and should increase its general level of both production and exports.

This is why the Brexit proposal (which has, finally, been watered down by Theresa May today) is counter-productive: it implies reducing both production and exports.

And, of course, why a blueprint for an alternative future for the UK has proved impossible to discern - it doesn't exist.