No Deal Brexit

[cattleman123]

In the very likely event of the above happening what can we expect to happen to the UK Livestock Industry?

 

[Kiwi Pete]

Fairly major disruptions and instability to prices, is my best guess?
I would rather sh!t in my hands, then clap, than be a specialist, especially finishing stock, as someone will "be left holding the baby" in this scenario.

However, it would likely mean some major and long overdue changes need to be made, instead of a whole lot of the same: grading, marketing, and (likely) ownership of some of the processors which will either fold, or be purchased by new entities or cooperatives.

Possibly less smallholdings, some amalgamations, and farmers working for a salary instead of a pittance?
Maybe even cooperation to survive, but I wouldn't hold my breath on this.

 

[tinsheet]

Don't think Europe will let it happen, we need to push it in order to get a better deal than what's being offered!
Just how I see it..
Happy to be advised otherwise.
Answering your question though, a dodgy 6/12 months with shite prices while supermarkets drive prices down to suit themselves, once new deals in place trade to firm up, hell may even improve..

(How longs apiece of string).

 

[taff]

It will be hard work for a couple of years then we will wonder what all the fuss was about as those that have the right skills to farm in a modern world will have survived and those that don't won't.(Not sure which one of those iam but I'll give it a go)
Is this really an option tho? wouldn't parliament have to agree on it as an option or do we automatically go that way if they can't agree?

 

[davidroberts30]

Whats the worst case scenario??
This country will still need feeding,and we can still provide enough from our own shores

 

[AvonValleyFarmer]

Fairly major disruptions and instability to prices, is my best guess?
I would rather sh!t in my hands, then clap, than be a specialist, especially finishing stock, as someone will "be left holding the baby" in this scenario.

However, it would likely mean some major and long overdue changes need to be made, instead of a whole lot of the same: grading, marketing, and (likely) ownership of some of the processors which will either fold, or be purchased by new entities or cooperatives.

Possibly less smallholdings, some amalgamations, and farmers working for a salary instead of a pittance?
Maybe even cooperation to survive, but I wouldn't hold my breath on this.

Cooperation? Never heard of it

 

[Woolless]

My guess would be that in the short term cattle prices may well improve (no Irish imports), while I can only see it being very difficult for the lamb trade right through the main selling season until numbers start to tighten. This could well be enough to force the hand of those that have been battered by a series of weather and trade jabs but haven't yet gone down on the canvas. Of course, if the Brexiteer headbangers have their hand on the tiller, it could be a case of tariff out but no tariff on the way in which would be an absolute shocker.

Medium/longer term, free trade with the EU combined with other deals could mean a brighter future. But it would be a long road, particularly for sheep producers..

 

[steveR]

No deal Brexit?

Sheep boys will be screwed in the short-medium term. As other say, a serious culling of numbers (and sheep producers of all types) will be inevitable. Environmental payments will keep some on the Uplands, and they will run reduced sized flocks. Maybe more of a NZ style "let the ewes manage themselves" system?

Beef men will tick along initially, but if the ERG type eedjits had their way, I can see beef going the same way under WTO rules... Suck in cheap imports is their solution to food!

 

[farmerm]

Let’s just say I am glad I have a reasonably diverse income stream for which livestock is only a proportion. Sheep will take a kicking in a no deal. The export balance isn’t so much about how much sheep meet we export as it is about the cuts we export. We import plenty of legs and chops and export lots of other cuts that have low domestic demand. How many sheep farmers will have positive incomes after a 40% reduction in sales and 100% reduction in subs?

 

[farmerm]

No deal Brexit?

Maybe more of a NZ style "let the ewes manage themselves" system!

Our culture is softer, RSPCA would soon have growers in court for animal neglect for not checking stock hourly or at least daily Though I did read the other day about a British farmer who’s flock was stolen sometime during a 3 week window!

 

[Highland Mule]

In the very likely event of the above happening what can we expect to happen to the UK Livestock Industry?

Nobody knows, because it's too bad to think of and hence it will never happen. Here's a few examples from no deal.

• No international recognition of airline pilot licences, hence all international flights shut down until we can make formal agreement with another certification body. Same for maintenance on all UK operators (BA, Virgin, etc.).
• No more ability for manufacturers to self certify against european standards, and no replacement UK standards, so no manufacturing of anything exportable and hence exporting industry will shut down (too many companies to mention).
• No access to many cancer treatments, medical isotopes, etc. as they come from Euratom Supply Agency
• No border agreements, hence no export of goods, people. Chaos on the roads of Kent, etc.
• No agreement on cross border taxation of electricity - so France, Holland and Ireland have to shut off the interconnects until given clear direction on what to do. No more membership of Euratom, so questionable if we can refuel our own nuclear power reactors. Can the grid survive without that - I doubt it.

Yes, all of these can be solved, but not in a day, a week or a month.

As you write it down you realise it's too bad to imagine and would thus never happen. I hope. Whatever the deal, a deal is a deal and buys us time to put into place the next stage. Without a deal we have no transition and hence we need either a deal or cancellation of Art 50.

Anyone suggesting 'out means out, let's just tell them where to stick it' or 'no deal, let's go' has really no idea how much we need the EU.

 

[Amcnab]

Nobody knows, because it's too bad to think of and hence it will never happen. Here's a few examples from no deal.

• No international recognition of airline pilot licences, hence all international flights shut down until we can make formal agreement with another certification body. Same for maintenance on all UK operators (BA, Virgin, etc.).
• No more ability for manufacturers to self certify against european standards, and no replacement UK standards, so no manufacturing of anything exportable and hence exporting industry will shut down (too many companies to mention).
• No access to many cancer treatments, medical isotopes, etc. as they come from Euratom Supply Agency
• No border agreements, hence no export of goods, people. Chaos on the roads of Kent, etc.
• No agreement on cross border taxation of electricity - so France, Holland and Ireland have to shut off the interconnects until given clear direction on what to do. No more membership of Euratom, so questionable if we can refuel our own nuclear power reactors. Can the grid survive without that - I doubt it.

Yes, all of these can be solved, but not in a day, a week or a month.

As you write it down you realise it's too bad to imagine and would thus never happen. I hope. Whatever the deal, a deal is a deal and buys us time to put into place the next stage. Without a deal we have no transition and hence we need either a deal or cancellation of Art 50.

Anyone suggesting 'out means out, let's just tell them where to stick it' or 'no deal, let's go' has really no idea how much we need the EU.

Wow,now that’s a list of things you don’t want to lose.

 

[davidroberts30]

Great britain must have been right in the shitter in the 70s if we need the EU that much

 

[Highland Mule]

We had our own systems in place, but don't any more - that's the raw facts - unwinding 40 years of integration takes time.

Edit, from a quick check:
Current UK/France interconnect installed 1986
Current UK/Netherlands installed 2010
Current UK/Ireland installed 2012

European Aviation Safety Agency est. 2002
European Observatory on the supply of medical radioisotopes best. 2012

 

[Nithsdale]

The export balance isn’t so much about how much sheep meet we export as it is about the cuts we export. We import plenty of legs and chops and export lots of other cuts that have low domestic demand.

Controversial maybe, but we need to break the thinking lamb is only good for leg roasts or chops with mint sauce ( )

I've been saying for years now we need to find better ways of cutting lamb. Easier cuts for simple/quick cooking... maybe even mince or dice a lot more of it! I dice up as much of my own lamb as I can and make casserole/pot/stew dishes from it


If we don't get with the times we will certainly fail as an industry

 

[farmerm]

Controversial maybe, but we need to break the thinking lamb is only good for leg roasts or chops with mint sauce yuck

I've been saying for years now we need to find better ways of cutting lamb. Easier cuts for simple/quick cooking... maybe even mince or dice a lot more of it! I dice up as much of my own lamb as I can and make casserole/pot/stew dishes from it


If we don't get with the times we will certainly fail as an industry

Lots of people have been saying that since I left school 10 years ago, we don’t seem to have progressed on it. It’s not just the cooking it’s the cost compared to other meats.

 

[neilo]

Our culture is softer, RSPCA would soon have growers in court for animal neglect for not checking stock hourly or at least daily Though I did read the other day about a British farmer who’s flock was stolen sometime during a 3 week window!

It's not a legal requirement to check stock daily, although obviously it makes sense where it's possible. I can't think that many true hill flocks will all be lookered every day, it just wouldn't be physically possible.

 

[neilo]

Controversial maybe, but we need to break the thinking lamb is only good for leg roasts or chops with mint sauce yuck

I've been saying for years now we need to find better ways of cutting lamb. Easier cuts for simple/quick cooking... maybe even mince or dice a lot more of it! I dice up as much of my own lamb as I can and make casserole/pot/stew dishes from it


If we don't get with the times we will certainly fail as an industry

That would certainly make more use of lamb, but it would also have to be priced as cheaply as mince. etc from other meats. That's quite apart from the thoughts that water filled, intensively reared chicken breast is a far healthier option.

 

[Highland Mule]

Our culture is softer, RSPCA would soon have growers in court for animal neglect for not checking stock hourly or at least daily Though I did read the other day about a British farmer who’s flock was stolen sometime during a 3 week window!

If it's the case in Nethybridge, the window was from Aug 31st - Nov 24th....

 

[steveR]

Great britain must have been right in the shitter in the 70s if we need the EU that much

It was....