No Deal Brexit

[czechmate]

If we fall out on March 29th by default then remainders will riot, if we don’t leave then leavers will riot. Fkd either way

Actually, I don’t think remainders will riot

 

[tepapa]

If we fall out on March 29th by default then remainders will riot, if we don’t leave then leavers will riot. Fkd either way

Even though the majority of MPs voted in law that we will leave on 29th march regardless there is a lot of talk by them about extending the deadline for more time. If we can't get an exceptable deal in two years how long do they need? 10 years or maybe 20 years. The eu have said they are not changing the terms so why drag out the pain.

 

[Hilly]

Actually, I don’t think remainders will riot

No but remain voters might lol

 

[farmerm]

Actually, I don’t think remainders will riot

Remainers might not riot on March 30th but when the Brexitiers "it will all be alright resorting to WTO" turns out to be fantasy, the factory workers P45's will be being distributed in bulk by summer and the riots will start then... Yes the UK as a whole may be fine under WTO but there are plenty of UK business for which no tariff, frictionless trade with the EU is fundamental to their business. WTO would inevitably lead to some job losses, what no one can yet forecast is the scale of these losses. I personally know of one business that would have no option but to move their production out of the UK at the cost of 70 jobs. Of course the good news for these people is there will be plenty of unfilled fruit picking work they can take up....

 

[Agrivator]

If we leave without a deal on March 29th, I presume trade between the UK and the EU will continue as normal.

If that is not likely to be the case, can anyone identify who exactly will have the courage to try to prevent trade continuing as normal.

 

[Willie adie]

if we remove a no deal option then we will even more screwed over than we are just now.
we need to have that in our deck.

i actually think the intransigence of junker and his cohorts is i think galvanising the
" get it up you" attitude that brexit supporters have.
if there was a second vote im voting out again

 

[czechmate]

if we remove a no deal option then we will even more screwed over than we are just now.
we need to have that in our deck.

i actually think the intransigence of junker and his cohorts is i think galvanising the
" get it up you" attitude that brexit supporters have.
if there was a second vote im voting out again

Just curious, if you don't mind me asking, which way in the following Indy red?

 

[cheviot53]

Just wondering , if we had an election as some mp's want ,would there be a good chance of the Green party gaining seats just to punish the main parties and would this be worse for uk farming than a No deal ?

 

[farmerm]

If we leave without a deal on March 29th, I presume trade between the UK and the EU will continue as normal.

If that is not likely to be the case, can anyone identify who exactly will have the courage to try to prevent trade continuing as normal.

Agrivator, if we leave without a deal on March 29th then we default to trading under WTO terms. I am no expert on international trade but I believe this means we are obliged to charge import tariffs on goods on goods from the EU and the EU have to charge tariffs on goods from the UK. Trade can not possibly continue as normal on goods that high tariffs apply to. As I understand it WTO rules prevent favored nation trading, a deal the UK and EU can not simply choose to wave tariffs on each others goods whilst maintaining tariffs barriers for goods from other countries. I keep raising this point but I know a director who imports many of his components from the EU and exports most of his product to customers in the EU. That business can not afford to continue to manufacture in the UK if we leave on WTO rules. WTO will cost jobs, WTO without 2 years for businesses to prepare, time to develop new supply chains and new markets, will result in the loss of many, many jobs. The figures tell me 13% of our Economy is derived from trade with the EU, if we lost even 1/5 of that trade because of tariff barriers it would mean the fastest, deepest and probably longest economic recession in our history. Note that only 3-4% of the European economy comes from trade with the EU, the EU fear the loss of our money but not the loss of our trade.

Those pushing for Brexit at any cost either fail to grasp this or they simply don't care. If I am wrong then I would be delighted for one of you Brexit at all cost folk to better educate me, please!

 

[farmerm]

Just wondering , if we had an election as some mp's want ,would there be a good chance of the Green party gaining seats just to punish the main parties and would this be worse for uk farming than a No deal ?

Greens could suck in anti-Corbyn labour voters and remain conservative voters. It would take a massive swing in almost all areas for them to win seats, but we are living in unprecedented times, the EU question has always divided the traditional left and right politics of our contry.

 

[caveman]

Greens could suck in anti-Corbyn labour voters and remain conservative voters. It would take a massive swing in almost all areas for them to win seats, but we are living in unprecedented times, the EU question has always divided the traditional left and right politics of our contry.

Do you mean divide left and right, or left v right?

 

[Agrivator]

Agrivator, if we leave without a deal on March 29th then we default to trading under WTO terms. I am no expert on international trade but I believe this means we are obliged to charge import tariffs on goods on goods from the EU and the EU have to charge tariffs on goods from the UK. Trade can not possibly continue as normal on goods that high tariffs apply to. As I understand it WTO rules prevent favored nation trading, a deal the UK and EU can not simply choose to wave tariffs on each others goods whilst maintaining tariffs barriers for goods from other countries. I keep raising this point but I know a director who imports many of his components from the EU and exports most of his product to customers in the EU. That business can not afford to continue to manufacture in the UK if we leave on WTO rules. WTO will cost jobs, WTO without 2 years for businesses to prepare, time to develop new supply chains and new markets, will result in the loss of many, many jobs. The figures tell me 13% of our Economy is derived from trade with the EU, if we lost even 1/5 of that trade because of tariff barriers it would mean the fastest, deepest and probably longest economic recession in our history. Note that only 3-4% of the European economy comes from trade with the EU, the EU fear the loss of our money but not the loss of our trade.

Those pushing for Brexit at any cost either fail to grasp this or they simply don't care. If I am wrong then I would be delighted for one of you Brexit at all cost folk to better educate me, please!

Thank you for that. But on March 30th, who will prevent lorries etc from proceeding as normal. Or alternatively, how long would it take
for WTO rules to be applied?

 

[ollie989898]

Under WTO rules, each member country has a schedule of tariffs that they know will apply to all goods traded between them, they vary a lot but services are relatively unmentioned. This means you cannot treat other WTO members differently to each other. The UK, for example, cannot trade with Zimbabwe and Egypt but level greater tariffs against Egypt's coffee more than Zimbabwe's coffee, thus all three countries (if they are members) are obliged to treat each other the same.

HOWEVER, under WTO rules, the UK is quite within it's rights to say: 'hey other WTO members, we are going to lower (or even remove) our import tariffs on coffee, X and Y'. The UK could then insist that anyone trading with us reciprocally must do the same. Understandably, a lot of countries do not like tariffs and more than a few of them would welcome free trade with the UK. This is precisely why the UK MUST leave the EU and not remain in the customs union, otherwise it will not be able to enter into trade deals of it's own (one of the stipulations of the customs union is that you cannot do your own trade deals) or others such as the TPP.

Members of the TPP MUST have the ability to set their own product standards and policies, that is written into the rules of that particular agreement. This would be effectively prohibited if the UK did not leave the customs union.

The future is trading with the Americas and Asia in a relatively unrestricted way. I cannot stress this enough. The growth markets are in these areas, Europe is reaching it's peak if it has not already done so, with the working populations ageing or with societies in perpetual paralysis due to austerity, and that won't be shaken off in a few years, either.

The UK MUST leave with no restrictions left on it. The idea that companies will magically up sticks to Frankfurt is a joke, London is the largest trading hub in the world and will remain so for a long time yet. The UK is the 5th largest economy and although it has a useless government at the moment, it is actually the most stable, least temperamental and most pragmatic player on the world stage by miles. The British are seen as a reliable and safe bunch to deal with and that appearance is worth even more whilst the orange monkey sits in the oval office. No one can deal with a temperamental individual like that and business doers not like unpredictability.

The UK joining TPP would supercharge that organisation, and is a logical step given the close relationships we have with the far east and common wealth countries.

 

[ollie989898]

Thank you for that. But on March 30th, who will prevent lorries etc from proceeding as normal. Or alternatively, how long would it take
for WTO rules to be applied?

The UK government has stated it has no plans to impose any additional border controls on anything entering this country post brexit, applying tariffs need not even be done- the removal of tariffs is permitted under WTO terms.

The UK has not be applying punitive border controls on anyone's goods, EU or non-EU. I don't see why this policy need suddenly change. We have been happy buying and importing both until now, why would you bother to incur the expense of changing it? Are product standards suddenly going to change overnight because the EU is missing a star from its flag? Of course not.

 

[farmerm]

Do you mean divide left and right, or left v right?

sorry I could have phrased that better. What I mean is the EU has never split MPs down their normal tribal left and right views, the EU splits MPS within those left/right tribes.... labour are just as split on the EU as the conservatives are.

 

[caveman]

What really gets me is, we have a parliament made up of 70% remainers, most of whom will trot out the phrase "I respect the result of the referendum", who voted in vast numbers to enact article 50 and get it presented, but do not understand that, that very device states, that we leave the EU with a deal or on WTO rules if a deal cannot be reached on 30/03/19.
And now they want to try every trick in the book to stop the process and remain.
Did they not read the small print in art 50?
Should we really be being "ruled" by so many who are so stupid, even to the extent that they think they know better than Joe Public?......which in itself takes stupidity to the limits
I despair
And no.
I didn't vote for them.
My vote went to a non represented party.

 

[czechmate]

What really gets me is, we have a parliament made up of 70% remainers, most of whom will trot out the phrase "I respect the result of the referendum", who voted in vast numbers to enact article 50 and get it presented, but do not understand that, that very device states, that we leave the EU with a deal or on WTO rules if a deal cannot be reached on 30/03/19.
And now they want to try every trick in the book to stop the process and remain.
Did they not read the small print in art 50?
Should we really be being "ruled" by so many who are so stupid, even to the extent that they think they know better than Joe Public?......which in itself takes stupidity to the limits
I despair
And no.
I didn't vote for them.
My vote went to a non represented party.

The party started by screeming Lord Such?

 

[farmerm]

The UK government has stated it has no plans to impose any additional border controls on anything entering this country post brexit, applying tariffs need not even be done- the removal of tariffs is permitted under WTO terms.

The UK has not be applying punitive border controls on anyone's goods, EU or non-EU. I don't see why this policy need suddenly change. We have been happy buying and importing both until now, why would you bother to incur the expense of changing it? Are product standards suddenly going to change overnight because the EU is missing a star from its flag? Of course not.

Don't be bloody daft Ollie, of course the UK currently impose the same external barriers as the other EU member states, that is why are shelves are not loaded with US beef, it is why our ports are not chock full of black sea wheat, and why all our steel and cars have not come from plants in China. Are you seriously saying that you believe from 30th March any goods of any quality, produced under any standards, should be allowed to be imported into the UK with zero tariff barriers? That scenario would decimate every sector of our high production cost economy within months, except our ports, but the EU will never allow us to be used as a back door.. Yours is the most frightening Brexit outcome I have ever heard!

 

[bobk]

Under WTO rules, each member country has a schedule of tariffs that they know will apply to all goods traded between them, they vary a lot but services are relatively unmentioned. This means you cannot treat other WTO members differently to each other. The UK, for example, cannot trade with Zimbabwe and Egypt but level greater tariffs against Egypt's coffee more than Zimbabwe's coffee, thus all three countries (if they are members) are obliged to treat each other the same.

HOWEVER, under WTO rules, the UK is quite within it's rights to say: 'hey other WTO members, we are going to lower (or even remove) our import tariffs on coffee, X and Y'. The UK could then insist that anyone trading with us reciprocally must do the same. Understandably, a lot of countries do not like tariffs and more than a few of them would welcome free trade with the UK. This is precisely why the UK MUST leave the EU and not remain in the customs union, otherwise it will not be able to enter into trade deals of it's own (one of the stipulations of the customs union is that you cannot do your own trade deals) or others such as the TPP.

Members of the TPP MUST have the ability to set their own product standards and policies, that is written into the rules of that particular agreement. This would be effectively prohibited if the UK did not leave the customs union.

The future is trading with the Americas and Asia in a relatively unrestricted way. I cannot stress this enough. The growth markets are in these areas, Europe is reaching it's peak if it has not already done so, with the working populations ageing or with societies in perpetual paralysis due to austerity, and that won't be shaken off in a few years, either.

The UK MUST leave with no restrictions left on it. The idea that companies will magically up sticks to Frankfurt is a joke, London is the largest trading hub in the world and will remain so for a long time yet. The UK is the 5th largest economy and although it has a useless government at the moment, it is actually the most stable, least temperamental and most pragmatic player on the world stage by miles. The British are seen as a reliable and safe bunch to deal with and that appearance is worth even more whilst the orange monkey sits in the oval office. No one can deal with a temperamental individual like that and business doers not like unpredictability.

The UK joining TPP would supercharge that organisation, and is a logical step given the close relationships we have with the far east and common wealth countries.

Exactly , under WTO we set the tariffs and the rules

 

[farmerm]

Exactly , under WTO we set the tariffs and the rules

Which might be fine when there is time to prepare, there isn’t