No Deal Brexit

[bobk]

Seems no one is able to tell me otherwise? Wishful policies won’t make for economic success...

It's not even half time yet , hold your nerve .

 

[Tha Ulsterscot]

if we remove a no deal option then we will even more screwed over than we are just now.
we need to have that in our deck.

i actually think the intransigence of junker and his cohorts is i think galvanising the
" get it up you" attitude that brexit supporters have.
if there was a second vote im voting out again

They don't like it up em, captain adie.

 

[Devil_0101]

You know i'm not from UK, so it is always to point of view of and European Citizen, i think at this point is better not to have any brexit deal, just leave, and restart with dealing back with the EU, but first you have to fix the problems your "people of UK", someone explains me what does it mean still, and then once you have fixed them you will find out that making trades with the EU wont be to bad. Regards.

 

[holywell farmer]

Remainers might not riot on March 30th but when the Brexitiers "it will all be alright resorting to WTO" turns out to be fantasy, the factory workers P45's will be being distributed in bulk by summer and the riots will start then... Yes the UK as a whole may be fine under WTO but there are plenty of UK business for which no tariff, frictionless trade with the EU is fundamental to their business. WTO would inevitably lead to some job losses, what no one can yet forecast is the scale of these losses. I personally know of one business that would have no option but to move their production out of the UK at the cost of 70 jobs. Of course the good news for these people is there will be plenty of unfilled fruit picking work they can take up....

Talk like that will terrify folk,

 

[ollie989898]

No deal is a bigger threat to us than the EU and they know it. UK trade is worth a few percent of the EU economy, EU trade is worth 13% of our economy. The EU needs our money but it could survive without our trade.

EU is gonna enter recession if they aren't careful bud, the Germany economy is in slow down mode and the Deutsche bank have a big black hole no one is talking about....

What are the EU going to do that is so bad-ass? Tell me, you don't think the UK could not retaliate?

The EU are utterly pee'd we are leaving their experiment and taking our money with us. They rely on free access to our markets and now that is put into question. They know we could leave and would be free to enter into other arrangements with other countries, and possibly even with better terms than they enjoy with us today.

If the EU thinks this move is so suicidal on our part, why are they behaving so peculiarly about the prospect of us leaving?

 

[farmerm]

EU is gonna enter recession if they aren't careful bud, the Germany economy is in slow down mode and the Deutsche bank have a big black hole no one is talking about....

What are the EU going to do that is so bad-ass? Tell me, you don't think the UK could not retaliate?

The EU are utterly pee'd we are leaving their experiment and taking our money with us. They rely on free access to our markets and now that is put into question. They know we could leave and would be free to enter into other arrangements with other countries, and possibly even with better terms than they enjoy with us today.

If the EU thinks this move is so suicidal on our part, why are they behaving so peculiarly about the prospect of us leaving?

Because they need our money and the sanity we inject into the EU parliament. I keep pointing out 13% of our economy comes from trade to the EU, we only contribute 3-4% of the EU economy. Yes in the long term we can negotiate new free trade deals but that’s the long term, we have nothing to replace our EU trade on March 29th.

 

[ollie989898]

So we could trade cars freely with the EU but only if we also trade them freely with China. We can trade beef freely with the EU but only if we also trade it freely with the USA. Also you miss my point.. if we have free trade from the world we can not have free trade into the EU or we become a backdoor shipping route into Europe, Europe can not and will not accept that.

Yes I’m living in a protectionist idyll, most farmers around the world live in poverty or at least with much lower living standards than we do. I don’t want to be poorer thanks very much. I am not against a move towards free trade but not overnight!

I'm glad we are getting somewhere. You admit you are a protectionist and want to hide away under the blankets. Time to wake up and smell the Java. We already trade freely with the USA, they are our biggest investors despite there being no formal trading arrangement with them. American cars ARE already marketed here. US beef is not permitted due to the health concerns regarding hormone treatments. We already import American cars they are are already sold here. We also permit the importation of cars from South Korea, they too are sold here and thousands of people are choosing their product because they represent good value for money or whatever other reason. Similarly, JLR are selling their cars in the far east and in particular in China. yet you seem to think that we should automatically prevent any attempt to sell Chinese-made cars in the UK? Err, why?

The UK has accepted goods that do not meet EU standards on occasion and they moaned like arse about it, they also complained about the UK importing Australian coal and yet handily overlooked the billions the German government was handing in subsidies to their own coal industry for several years.

It is up to the UK to decide who it will trade with and on what terms. Oh so brexit and free trade cause farmers to moan and complain- what is new? Do you honestly think the UK government should orientate the entire UK economy and trade policy because of the concerns of farmers? Are you utterly off your rocker?

The main theme on TFF seems to be folk want the UK to remain in the EU because subsidies and protectionism. For how long do you expect to remain in that fish-bowl and ignore the real world? Experience in multiple countries and multiple industries has shown that long term protectionism detracts from international competitiveness and makes industries weak. Half this forum must be able to remember the UK in the 60s or 70s, what a great old time that was, now you want the same to continue forever just because: 'beef and sheep, innit?' Such self entitlement must go down well with the buying public. I wonder what proportion of the electorate do not realise that a good portion of the industry are being handed sums of money that would easily cover the required deposit on a house, something that a lot of working people are singularly unable to attain? How many votes do you think I could get if I promised to take UK farming subsidies and instead handed out 20 or 30K to young couples so they can get on the property ladder?

It is time for rank and file change in UK politics and brexit will be the catalyst for it.

 

[ollie989898]

Because they need our money and the sanity we inject into the EU parliament. I keep pointing out 13% of our economy comes from trade to the EU, we only contribute 3-4% of the EU economy. Yes in the long term we can negotiate new free trade deals but that’s the long term, we have nothing to replace our EU trade on March 29th.

yeah yeah 13%, whatever. The EU commission do not need or want us interfering. They are not remotely interested in the UK or what we have to say, that much is manifestly clear. The UK populace put Farage in the EU parliament and he has been there taking the pish out of them every working day of his life. We didn't join the Euro and we don't abide by their stupid regulations regarding the financial systems in Europe. They way they have behaved is utterly infantile and even remainers are sick of it.

Any kind of trade war would be extremely costly for them as it would put consumer confidence into free fall. Good luck with the tourist industry as well if suddenly UK consumers haven't got a few quid to spend.

 

[farmerm]

The irony is I agree there are many good reasons to get out of the EU. The problem is timescale. To go from free trade with the EU to WTO overnight will put a massive shock into our economy. Leave should have campaigned on a WTO Brexit and have a mandate for such. We could then have spent the last 2 years working on trade deals and new trade arrangements to prepare for that situation. We are still being told we won’t have a no deal

I’m not talking a trade war I am talking about agreed international trading terms.

I’m not talking about protectionism for farmers but for protecting jobs in all sectors of our economy.

I believe the tariff on US car imports into the EU is 10%, thats not free trade.

 

[farmerm]

yeah yeah 13%, whatever. The EU commission do not need or want us interfering. They are not remotely interested in the UK or what we have to say, that much is manifestly clear. The UK populace put Farage in the EU parliament and he has been there taking the pish out of them every working day of his life. We didn't join the Euro and we don't abide by their stupid regulations regarding the financial systems in Europe. They way they have behaved is utterly infantile and even remainers are sick of it.

Any kind of trade war would be extremely costly for them as it would put consumer confidence into free fall. Good luck with the tourist industry as well if suddenly UK consumers haven't got a few quid to spend.

13% is a significant chunk of our economy, if tariffs price us out of just 20% of that EU markets it would still be one of the fastest contractions of a western economy ever to occur. Tens of thousands of jobs would be lost.

 

[ollie989898]

The irony is I agree there are many good reasons to get out of the EU. The problem is timescale. To go from free trade with the EU to WTO overnight will put a massive shock into our economy. Leave should have campaigned on a WTO Brexit and have a mandate for such. We could then have spent the last 2 years working on trade deals and new trade arrangements to prepare for that situation. We are still being told we won’t have a no deal

I’m not talking a trade war I am talking about agreed international trading terms.

I’m not talking about protectionism for farmers but for protecting jobs in all sectors of our economy.

I believe the tariff on US car imports into the EU is 10%, thats not free trade.

US cars are still sold in the UK. The fact they are complete carp is more the problem, not the added 10%.

Nothing need change if we adopt WTO trade practices, there are tariffs and non-tariff barriers to consider but they can be abandoned if required. It's all a nonsense, if the UK and EU wish to trade freely they can do so, by simply not imposing any tariffs. There is no protection, companies can and will leave the UK or move to the UK according to what suits them and their requirements. Any one believing otherwise is sadly mistaken. The UK is already a WTO member and the EU is as well; they have to abide by the terms of the WTO and cannot treat the UK unfairly in any way.

The UK CAN choose to have a bi-lateral agreement with another country on top of WTO rules. So, the UK leaves with no deal in March, and decides it wants to trade with the USA and setup a trading agreement with them. As part of the process, the Americans ask that the UK does not impose the 10% tariff on US cars being imported. UK says fine, we don't wish to impose that and so increase the cost of the cars available to UK consumers, and then negotiates something in return from the Americans. This can be adopted INSTEAD OF WTO rules.

WTO rules are a default position and successfully used by dozens of countries though there is nothing to stop countries from doing business in a way less complex for both. Chile, for example as I mentioned, has done deal with more than 60% of the worlds economies by value. Little old Chile.

Similarly, the UK could say, we will not tariff imported pork and you can sell it freely to us (as happens with Danish bacon, for example) BUT we want it produced to this standard and without any hormone feed (just as an example). This would have to be led by the retailers of pork products, who do actually go abroad and verify what they are buying before agreeing contracts- ultimately it is market led. The government does not have the time nor ability to negotiate what standard bacon should be produced to. They rely on stakeholders to inform them of that- which is why danish bacon continues to be imported into this country despite their hugely different welfare requirements.

The UK has some free trade, and in fact championed it for years, but the EU is far from free trade, it doesn't like it, it can't stick it, they hate the Americans and basically do everything they can to stop them. In return, the USA nailed Volkswagen for emissions testing, despite the fact a diesel VW car would give near double the MPG of a typical American car. You think the US government and all the lobbyists were going to sit pretty and watch all those diesel Passats and Golfs driving around with little diesel engines doing 50mpg and put the big three out of business? There are hordes of American diesel vehicles in the USA with 5 or 7 litre engines, 'rolling coal', yet they choose to nail VW for the emissions from a little 4 pot diesel in a car? It's political and just a way it sticking it to the German car industry in return for years of protectionism.

The reason the EU are pee'd is that the UK could go and form arrangements for everything we buy from them with other parties. Believe me, there are suppliers for virtually everything in today's world, the UK could do a deal with Korean car makers and invite them to build factories here, which is more than the French or Germans ever did for us. We could form an agreement with Japan and Australia and find a worthwhile exchange of goods and services with them.

 

[ollie989898]

13% is a significant chunk of our economy, if tariffs price us out of just 20% of that EU markets it would still be one of the fastest contractions of a western economy ever to occur. Tens of thousands of jobs would be lost.

You aren't getting it.

Companies can fudge off or move or sack thousands of people just because they are companies.

There is utterly no guarantee that Nissan, Ford or anyone will stay in the UK employing the people that they do whether we vote for no-deal, a double-deal, invade France, nuke Brussels in a pre-emptive strike or pay the divorce bill in Cheese: they might just pish off anyway.

You don't see that if the EU start playing funny-buggers, it will ruin their reputation abroad and invite us to return the favour? The UK is a hefty marketplace for all countries. You do not know how many losers there have been caused by the fact we entered into the customs union with the EU. Japan and other countries, along with several notable economists have stated that, once the initial market turmoil is ridden out, the UK will be presented with a LOT of prospective opportunities from a no-deal, and this is particularly timely in a world which is trying to cope with an unpredictable and insular orang-utan in the white house. The UK can lead a path for countries who just want a stable and pragmatic diplomatic world stage, not someone who rocks markets or causes diplomatic incidents with tweets and off the cuff remarks.

The UK has done spectacularly badly from being in the EEC, every year since we joined it the trade deficit with Europe widens. That isn't a fair arrangement nor is it beneficial for us any longer.

 

[Devil_0101]

You aren't getting it.

Companies can fudge off or move or sack thousands of people just because they are companies.

There is utterly no guarantee that Nissan, Ford or anyone will stay in the UK employing the people that they do whether we vote for no-deal, a double-deal, invade France, nuke Brussels in a pre-emptive strike or pay the divorce bill in Cheese: they might just pish off anyway.

You don't see that if the EU start playing funny-buggers, it will ruin their reputation abroad and invite us to return the favour? The UK is a hefty marketplace for all countries. You do not know how many losers there have been caused by the fact we entered into the customs union with the EU. Japan and other countries, along with several notable economists have stated that, once the initial market turmoil is ridden out, the UK will be presented with a LOT of prospective opportunities from a no-deal, and this is particularly timely in a world which is trying to cope with an unpredictable and insular orang-utan in the white house. The UK can lead a path for countries who just want a stable and pragmatic diplomatic world stage, not someone who rocks markets or causes diplomatic incidents with tweets and off the cuff remarks.

The UK has done spectacularly badly from being in the EEC, every year since we joined it the trade deficit with Europe widens. That isn't a fair arrangement nor is it beneficial for us any longer.

Instead of talking in a ridicule way, why don't you just report statistics and facts? The UK can have a bi-lateral agreement but who with? the UK is a hefty marketplace for all countries, name me these countries. Regards.

 

[farmerm]

Instead of talking in a ridicule way, why don't you just report statistics and facts? The UK can have a bi-lateral agreement but who with? the UK is a hefty marketplace for all countries, name me these countries. Regards.

New bi-lateral agreements can not be negotiated in minutes. These kind of negotiations take years, sometimes decades, meanwhile our economy will contract, jobs will be lost and our currency will crash.

I be not totally against us leaving the EU but it needs to be a managed transition not one implemented with zero notice.

It is the Brexit at any cost brigade that don’t get it. Companies don’t more production because they are companies. Companies move production because it is what is in the best interests of their share holders. New tariff barriers radically change the equation. A no deal means no deal, that means WTO tariffs on goods crossing the channel. That is not the EU “playing silly buggers” that is just the reality of leaving with no deal.

 

[bobk]

New bi-lateral agreements can not be negotiated in minutes. These kind of negotiations take years, sometimes decades, meanwhile our economy will contract, jobs will be lost and our currency will crash.

I be not totally against us leaving the EU but it needs to be a managed transition not one implemented with zero notice.

It is the Brexit at any cost brigade that don’t get it. Companies don’t more production because they are companies. Companies move production because it is what is in the best interests of their share holders. New tariff barriers radically change the equation. A no deal means no deal, that means WTO tariffs on goods crossing the channel. That is not the EU “playing silly buggers” that is just the reality of leaving with no deal.

Under WTO our tarrifs will be lower than the EU if we wish , I like a bit of control in my life , rulemaker not ruletaker .

 

[czechmate]

Under WTO our tarrifs will be lower than the EU if we wish , I like a bit of control in my life , rulemaker not ruletaker .

Good luck with that, although I must admit, as my own little personal protest I never did wear a seat belt. Only got stopped once and talked my way out of that

 

[bobk]

Good luck with that, although I must admit, as my own little personal protest I never did wear a seat belt. Only got stopped once and talked my way out of that

I don't wear a seatbelt now , doesn't make me an anarchist .

 

[aangus]

Always thought that if we are going to leave that we would need successful business people to negotiate a deal, the likes of Alan Sugar, Philip Day, Mike Ashley...……… doesn't matter what you think of these people they are after very successful

 

[rob1]

13% is a significant chunk of our economy, if tariffs price us out of just 20% of that EU markets it would still be one of the fastest contractions of a western economy ever to occur. Tens of thousands of jobs would be lost.

Do you know what the average wto tariff actually is ? Look it up you will be very surprised.

 

[bobk]

Always thought that if we are going to leave that we would need successful business people to negotiate a deal, the likes of Alan Sugar, Philip Day, Mike Ashley...……… doesn't matter what you think of these people they are after very successful

All remainers .