No more new diesel or petrol cars from 2040 onwards

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by M-J-G, Jul 26, 2017.

  1. Pasty

    Pasty Member

    Location:
    Devon
    I would also comment that it's pointless arguing over battery technology. That will move on rapidly. Li-on may be a thing of the past in 5 years. There are plenty of alternatives in development.

    The simple point is that sales of EV are over taking ICE rapidly. The crash in ICE car sales in the last 2 years is purely due to people waiting for a viable EV alternative in my view and we could see some high profile casualties and 'Kodak moments' for those behind the curve.
     
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  2. Greenbeast

    Greenbeast Member

    Location:
    East Sussex
    Robert on FC the other day said we currently think we passed 'peak ICE' in 2018, and that it was the year of most ICE cars bought and we're already declining, a combination of EV increase and overall car buying decrease
     
  3. Scribus

    Scribus Member

    Location:
    Central Atlantic
    I didn't say they couldn't be recycled, I said it was difficult and expensive.

    Cobalt reserves are much discussed, here is an article from a 'green' media outlet that suggests it is not quite so plentiful as might be hoped. Neither does the article state just where a good deal of those reserves are located, probably because they are on the sea floor -

    https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Can-Cobalt-Supplies-Scale-With-Massive-EV-Market-Growth

    We then need to look at the effects of mining the sea floor which may not be at all environmentally friendly -

    https://www.civilbeat.org/2018/11/rushing-to-mine-a-sea-floor-full-of-treasure-and-unique-creatures/

    As for Lithium then -

    "The spiralling environmental cost of our lithium battery addiction" -

    https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact


    Air pollution is indeed a problem, but it it is not all generated by vehicles. Within London the particulate matter content is often held up as being deadly, it may well be, but the level has been declining steadily for decades without the aid of EV's. The UK governments push to switch to EV's has backfired as motorists buy petrol cars instead, which has actually increased the CO2 emissions.

    Tibet might well argue about the intentions of China, as many Australians are beginning to, and as for the 10m Uyghur Muslims in western China who are being interned or 'reeducated' by the Chinese authorities then they might not be so impressed with your confidence in the sweetness of the government there.

    What it boils down to is that we are being coerced into EV's for various reasons, we are told they are environmental, but there is an alternative narrative building that strongly points to it being a money making scam.
     
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  4. Scribus

    Scribus Member

    Location:
    Central Atlantic
    This EV increase. Most EV's attract some sort of subsidy (my money and yours going to subsidise those who can afford expensive new cars), take that support away and what happens? Sales collapse, as they did in Denmark.

    If you really want confirmation that EV's are all about money take the case of Tesla. The federal subsidy on EV's is declining in America, so Tesla dropped its prices to compensate, confirming that they were milking the system by overcharging. Elon Musk himself stands to gain $55bn if the company meets certain performance targets! He really doesn't give a tinkers cuss about the planet.
     
  5. Greenbeast

    Greenbeast Member

    Location:
    East Sussex
    They're aren't overcharging. There has been a third party analysis suggesting it is costing them $30-40k (in materials i believe) to produce the Model 3
     
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  6. Scribus

    Scribus Member

    Location:
    Central Atlantic
    So where does the ability to drop prices come from?

    Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) on Wednesday cut U.S. prices for all its vehicles to offset lower green tax credits,


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-t...ces-on-all-vehicles-shares-drop-idUKKCN1OW0ZR

    Others put the total production cost of a model 3 at a shade less than $30,000, but it's all guesswork.

    https://www.greencarreports.com/new...-to-build-tesla-model-3-a-bit-higher-analysis
     
  7. I don't care a jot about the internal concerns or politics of China.

    I want an electric vehicle because ultimately they will be cheaper to run and far more reliable than a modern car with an engine.

    Air pollution from vehicles is a serious issue so don't try to gloss over it.

    Lithium can be recycled no problem. It is no more problematic than recycling other batteries, the cobalt and nickel can be recovered.

    We can argue about the environmental impacts of the fossil fuel industry compared to other mining all day, it's not a discussion you will win I fear.

    EVERYTHING is a money making scam. If there is no economic or profit incentive then nothing gets sold. I am merely interested in the alternatives to trying to find ever more oil and burning that in a car and then expecting pedestrians in cities to breath the particulates from them. It is madness.
     
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  8. Scribus

    Scribus Member

    Location:
    Central Atlantic
    That's just the problem for the manufacturers, modern car engines are far too reliable, keep the oil changes up to date and they'll go for 100's of thousands of miles. This is why they want to do away with them and stick a battery in instead, batteries degrade, they lose around 5% capacity a year, imagine your fuel tank shrinking by that much. Batteries are built in obsolescence writ large.

    Cheaper? Not when the government gets round to taxing them properly they won't be, which means road pricing (vehicle tracking) BTW.

    From Wikipedia -

    At present, not much is invested into recycling Li-ion batteries due to cost, complexity and low yield.

    I've already pointed out that I would prefer to see more carbon recycled rather than extracted from the ground. There are other alternatives, but the EV lobby don't want to talk about them. Hydrogen and fuel cells is another, although much of the H2 presently comes from fossil fuels and they use platinum, which is also scarce and expensive.

    I have also pointed out that PM concentration is declining in London without EV's, I'll post the graph when I'm on the main computer. You will also be aware that EU legislation has dramatically cut the emission of both NOx and PM's. Permitted particulate matter is just 5% of the stage one regs. When it comes to air 'pollution' you'd be far better off worrying about the effects of 5G than cars.
     
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  9. Pasty

    Pasty Member

    Location:
    Devon
    VW are soon going to be selling the ID. A Golf sized EV with a 300 odd mile range at the same price as a Gold Diesel. Who in their right mind would buy the diesel when you can charge the ID for probably a tenth of the price? It's over.
     
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  10. Greenbeast

    Greenbeast Member

    Location:
    East Sussex
    No, apparently it's not. Apparently it's all a scam to stop digging for oil and buy into degrading batteries instead
     
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  11. I never said particulates nor emissions are not decreasing in London, but the environmental impact of manufacturing engines and the wastes they create, and the fossil fuels they need as pretty clear.

    Hydrogen is not an energy source and I would much rather have a battery under the floor than a tank of hydrogen. It is bad enough have to refuel a conventional car with fuels containing known carcinogens.

    5% degradation, makes no odds. The motorist is still quids in.
     
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  12. Frankzy

    Frankzy Member

    Location:
    Jamtland, Sweden
    Could you link your source for that?

    According to these graphs the average Tesla manages more than 250'000 km before even reaching 90% capacity assuming the battery has been well cared for.
    And as the graph appears to become linear i think it is safe to assume more than 500'000 km before hitting 80% capacity...

    Looking at these you could manage a 5% decrease in the first year, but after that? Unless you torture it, no.

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
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  13. These batteries will live long enough before the rest of the car is junked. How many 10 year old cars do you see with 250,000Km on now?
     
  14. Scribus

    Scribus Member

    Location:
    Central Atlantic
    Ahem -

    Manufacturing a mid-sized EV with an 84-mile range results in about 15 percent more emissions than manufacturing an equivalent gasoline vehicle. For larger, longer-range EVs that travel more than 250 miles per charge, the manufacturing emissions can be as much as 68 percent higher.

    The union of concerned scientists, who do go on to say that the overall emissions are reduced when compared to a petrol car, they never once mention compression ignition engines.

    But you did say that city pollution is a problem. However, it is declining and will continue to do so as the car fleet is renewed over time. How much pollution does the average fast food joint produce?

    Hydrogen is certainly an energy source, it burns to form water.

    How does the association between infrequent exposure to fuel fumes and cancer compare with that of mobile phone use and cancer? Actually, the relationship between mobile phones and eye cataracts is the interesting one.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2019
  15. Scribus

    Scribus Member

    Location:
    Central Atlantic
    If we look at the Nissan Leaf instead - https://pushevs.com/2018/03/20/nissan-leaf-battery-degradation-data-24-vs-30-kwh-batteries/

    Worth noting that rapid charging can accelerate degradation.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2019
  16. Scribus

    Scribus Member

    Location:
    Central Atlantic
    About 16,000 miles a year.
     
  17. Still Farming

    Still Farming Member

    Location:
    Glamorgan Wales
    Not good for 1000 Employees of Bridgend Ford alledgely are other engine plants next???
     
  18. Hydrogen is not an energy source.

    Electric vehicles create pollution, when they are manufactured and as they wear out their brakes and tyres. The electricity used to charge them is as polluting as the method of generation used. Even so, a coal fired powerstation can be fitted with emissions controls way beyond anything attached to a car and runs at much higher levels of efficiency than any car. They also tend not to build coal fired powerstations in cities.

    More to the point, EVs will save the consumer huge amounts of money because electricity is cheap compared to road fuels and more importantly in an electric car more than 50% of the energy on board is not going straight out of an exhaust.

    As for mobile phones and cancer you have lost me there, sorry. That is not a debate i'm even interested in participating in.
     
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  19. Scribus

    Scribus Member

    Location:
    Central Atlantic
    Big corps will always be looking for an excuse to close plants down. Unfortunately Bridgend has been shrinking for years now, I seem to remember it was threatened with closure decades ago.
     
  20. Greenbeast

    Greenbeast Member

    Location:
    East Sussex
    why do they build them first then?
     
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