Price predictions for the next 12 months

tw15

Member
Location
DORSET
Where do people see the farm gate prices going from here now . Personally i think as a whole yields will be down across the board on most crops and of course there are lots of weather events that have / are effecting the big producing nations .
When the dust settles my prediction is
Top spec milling wheat £225
Feed wheat £190-£200
Feed barley £180-£190
Malting barley £190-£210
Our £450- £525
Beans feed £220 -£240.
Well some may say its wishful thinking but i can see the uk being at least 25% down on average across the board .
 

Bignor Farmer

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
West Sussex
I‘m not sure where prices will settle but I expect some quality has been lost so perhaps we Won’t be so short on feed grain and it will be a big premium year.

Lets go for £160/t feed wheat spot in December and £210/t bread.

I prefer your prices though!
 

B'o'B

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Rutland
err, your claims on pricing are pretty much reality already . Wheat needs to be heading £250 ton to make financial sense in an industry getting left behind in modern fiscal sense Compared too secondary and third industries
The reason is we are too good at the job. People will pay decent prices if they have to, trouble is we churn stuff out so fast regardless. Our answer to low prices is often to try and produce more, which makes absolutely no sense! The population don’t have to pay properly for it (and are even happy to throw a big percentage of what they do buy away), because as an industry we seem to have no understanding of basic economics!
 
Read an article yesterday about big jumps in commodities across the board, crude oil, palm oil and coffee etc all sharply up and probably will remain so for some time. I can't see the present situation being markedly improved in 6 months?

The world is going into overdrive as economies get back into the swing of it. Demand across markets is massive. A fair few people and companies are making big money from the whole covid scenario.
 

CORK

Member
Was it around 2007-2008 that traders in London were saying that we we were in for a prolonged period of high grain prices?
I recall lots of grass being ploughed out in Ireland for the harvest of 2009. 2009 turned out to be a disastrous harvest in Ireland from a weather and grain price point of view. Agri diesel hit €1/litre the same year.

A friend of mine (buys all the inputs for a large feed company) told me in 2008 to never underestimate the world’s ability to produce grains.

He was right.

If I were a betting man, I’d expect prices to be lower next harvest than what they are now not allowing for potential weather issues that could occur.
 
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D14

Member
Where do people see the farm gate prices going from here now . Personally i think as a whole yields will be down across the board on most crops and of course there are lots of weather events that have / are effecting the big producing nations .
When the dust settles my prediction is
Top spec milling wheat £225
Feed wheat £190-£200
Feed barley £180-£190
Malting barley £190-£210
Our £450- £525
Beans feed £220 -£240.
Well some may say its wishful thinking but i can see the uk being at least 25% down on average across the board .

I agree but think harvest 23 could see all your prices halved.
 
I would agree with op on price

not had enough sun for highest yields combined with wet winter and late spring heavy land will not perform

so theU.K. Will have Very little to export
Our wheat price will have to rise to feed import prices
Depending on how wheat yields feed barley could be dragged up

feed buyers had a chance to get cheap wheat in the last 2 months

if the maize in the USA comes in under the latest predictions then feed wheat could get to over 200
Stronger £ is the biggest threat to higher U.K. feed wheat price
hag burg needs protectiing in all wheat types if possible
 

farmerfred86

Member
BASIS
Location
Suffolk
Agree with those prices.

Social media tells a truer story (as it did last year).

Im currently turning down £200/t harvest movement (shorts). That tells you something!
 

Happy

Member
Location
Scotland
Was it around 2007-2008 that traders in London were saying that we we were in for a prolonged period of high grain prices?
I recall lots of grass being ploughed out in Ireland for the harvest of 2009. 2009 turned out to be a disastrous harvest in Ireland from a weather and grain price point of view. Agri diesel hit €1/litre the same year.

A friend of mine (buys all the inputs for a large feed company) told me in 2008 to never underestimate the world’s ability to produce grains.

He was right.

If I were a betting man, I’d expect prices to be lower next harvest than what they are now not allowing for potential weather issues that could occur.

Remember that. Wheat £200 harvest 2008.
Fertiliser took off just as it has now on the back of it.
Bought triple 16 for spring barley at over £500t in Feb 2009. By harvest malting barley was worth little over £100/t:cry:

Worst year I’ve ever had.
 
Remember that. Wheat £200 harvest 2008.
Fertiliser took off just as it has now on the back of it.
Bought triple 16 for spring barley at over £500t in Feb 2009. By harvest malting barley was worth little over £100/t:cry:

Worst year I’ve ever had.
You have to treat every year on its merits
just because it happened in 2009 doesn’t mean it can happen again or cannot happen again
there are too many variables in the grain price and fertiliser price
any thing is possible the only certainty is uncertainty
 

Happy

Member
Location
Scotland
You have to treat every year on its merits
just because it happened in 2009 doesn’t mean it can happen again or cannot happen again
there are too many variables in the grain price and fertiliser price
any thing is possible the only certainty is uncertainty

Agreed.
Just acknowledging @CORK ‘s recollections of how quickly things can and indeed did change in that particular period with an example of my own from back then when all the market commentary and farmers expectations were that the decade long era of low grain prices was a thing of the past for the foreseeable.
 

Nitrams

Member
Location
Cornwall
Read an article yesterday about big jumps in commodities across the board, crude oil, palm oil and coffee etc all sharply up and probably will remain so for some time. I can't see the present situation being markedly improved in 6 months?

The world is going into overdrive as economies get back into the swing of it. Demand across markets is massive. A fair few people and companies are making big money from the whole covid scenario.
If i wasnt such a cynic, i would say the boys and girls representing the major world economies sit round the table for a few days and decide a surge of inflation is necessary to stave off impending doom. Through the manipulation of pricing of primary base products.. abracadabra immiediate inflation, till such time the extra money pumped into circulation has filtered into peoples hands and the impending doom is forgotton about then the taps of inflation are throttled back. Till next time.
 

Steevo

Member
Location
Gloucestershire
If i wasnt such a cynic, i would say the boys and girls representing the major world economies sit round the table for a few days and decide a surge of inflation is necessary to stave off impending doom. Through the manipulation of pricing of primary base products.. abracadabra immiediate inflation, till such time the extra money pumped into circulation has filtered into peoples hands and the impending doom is forgotton about then the taps of inflation are throttled back. Till next time.

You really think our leaders have that much intelligence…?!

Or is their public performance just a clever ruse to cover up such actions?
 

NI agri-food stakeholder groups discuss climate change bill with committee

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Written by Richard Halleron from Agriland

The Livestock and Meat Commission (LMC) recently submitted oral evidence to members of the Stormont Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (AERA) committee on the content and potential impact of the Northern Ireland Climate Change Bill (No.2).

This draft legislation was recently introduced to the Northern Ireland Assembly by the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) in conjunction with agriculture minister, Edwin Poots.

“We were accompanied by representatives from a wide range of food industry bodies, including the Northern Ireland Meat Exporters’ Association,the Ulster Farmers’ Union [UFU], Northern...
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