Price predictions for the next 12 months

D14

Member
Just had a quote for liquid N & P starter fert, up £126/t on last year

Think they’ll have to reevaluate the prices because oats today sold at £140/t. That’s a long way off any headline £200/t figures. We just won’t use starter fert so they won’t have any business.
Straw merchants have talked the price down to £50/t so the choppers are going on as that’s starter fert.
 
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Adeptandy

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
PE15
Think they’ll have to reevaluate the prices because oats today sold at £140/t. That’s a long way off any headline £200/t figures. We just won’t use starter fert so the won’t have any business.
Straw merchants have talked the price down to £50/t so the choppers are going on as that’s starter fert.
Tricky part is I could see before Christmas where I used it, ( did on/off trials strips ) will be interested to get the combine into it to see if it makes any difference at harvest before I commit.
 

B'o'B

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Rutland
That wouldn't justify much input, its a self fulfilling prophecy
Loss of CTL, loss of epoxi, impending loss of teb, on going reducing efficacy of Prothio, etc.
New premium priced chemistry here, but not as effective as cheap lost chemistry despite price tag.
Increasing N restrictions, manure restrictions, likely incoming P restrictions. Rocketing Fert prices.
Not much reason to budget on increasing yields right now!
 

ajd132

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Suffolk
Loss of CTL, loss of epoxi, impending loss of teb, on going reducing efficacy of Prothio, etc.
New premium priced chemistry here, but not as effective as cheap lost chemistry despite price tag.
Increasing N restrictions, manure restrictions, likely incoming P restrictions. Rocketing Fert prices.
Not much reason to budget on increasing yields right now!
Simply trying to grow as much as possible whatever it costs is not the way anymore. Overheads and inputs are too expensive and chemicals not good/reliable enough anymore. This is all fine by me but it is a mindset change which I would think many would struggle with.
 

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
Simply trying to grow as much as possible whatever it costs is not the way anymore. Overheads and inputs are too expensive and chemicals not good/reliable enough anymore. This is all fine by me but it is a mindset change which I would think many would struggle with.
Its not been the way for a long time
1997 to be exact when wheat dropped to £60 and stayed there for ten years
 

B'o'B

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Rutland
Those ten yrs were every bit as hard as the thirties i think. Total carnage with bse fand m to boot
No I wouldn’t say that. We still paid rent and didn’t resort to catching and selling rabbits as a main source of income.
A decent tractor was £15,000-20,000, fuel 9p/l and input costs could be kept in check but still be effective, it was difficult but not impossible to not loose money (as long as you didn’t have any borrowings).
From the tales my Grandad used to tell the 1930s sounded like a very different thing,

Edit. Thinking about it we moved to direct drilling in 2000 which saved us a lot on crop establishment and machinery compared to others so without that move things would have been tougher in the early ‘00s
 
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ajd132

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Suffolk
Its not been the way for a long time
1997 to be exact when wheat dropped to £60 and stayed there for ten years
I think it was much later than that around here. I think 2012-2015 when Atlantis got broken through poor (greedy?) lack of rotation. I started farming in 2012.
 

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
I think it was much later than that around here. I think 2012-2015 when Atlantis got broken through poor (greedy?) lack of rotation. I started farming in 2012.
No I wouldn’t say that. We still paid rent and didn’t resort to catching and selling rabbits as a main source of income.
A decent tractor was £15,000-20,000, fuel 9p/l and input costs could be kept in check but still be effective, it was difficult but not impossible to not loose money (as long as you didn’t have any borrowings).
From the tales my Grandad used to tell the 1930s sounded like a very different thing,

Edit. Thinking about it we moved to direct drilling in 2000 which saved us a lot on crop establishment and machinery compared to others so without that move things would have been tougher in the early ‘00s
the weather from 97 to 2003 was incredibly bad
2000 was the worst with 6% of our harvest uncut
 

lloyd

Member
Location
Herefordshire
Those ten yrs were every bit as hard as the thirties i think. Total carnage with bse fand m to boot
They didn't have Iacs payments in the 30s.
There is no comparison, at certain times there
was no demand for anything full stop and it was global
with the great depression in America making
thousands of farmers homeless.
 
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ajd132

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Suffolk
Fixed costs are where the real savings are at. Trying to save £50/ha on variable costs is only likely going to cost you yield/profit
i agree to a point. we have made big in roads into our fixed costs with no detriment, variable costs is a much slower and agronomically based cost saving. thankfully whenever i have benchmarked our variable cost spend is low compared to many with no detriment. many people are either being shafted by some kind of supply agreement or have zero interest in agronomy so let the agronomist whack on belt and braces when its not needed.
 

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
They didn't have Iacs payments in the 30s.
There is no comparison, at certain times there
was no demand for anything full stop and it was global
with the great depression in America making
thousands of farmers homeless.
What percentage of farmers gave up in the thirties?
I bet a similiar% packed up in 97-2007
Thirties farmers had virtually zero costs
Oats forhorses who bred their own replacement
the 1931 crash was caused by Russia flooding the west with wheat and starving its own people
1997 very similiar
 

B'o'B

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Rutland
What percentage of farmers gave up in the thirties?
I bet a similiar% packed up in 97-2007
Thirties farmers had virtually zero costs
Oats forhorses who bred their own replacement
the 1931 crash was caused by Russia flooding the west with wheat and starving its own people
1997 very similiar
Your area might well have different to around here but few gave up beyond natural wastage. It was noticeable that their was only a couple of other younger people coming onto farms. That all changed in 2008 when suddenly lots came back from the city!
 
The effective rent after iacs between 2000 to 2007 was negligible costs were low
but at £80 a tonne average stored to the spring it was hard to make the bank rate in return on working capital
half the farmers gave up or had their farms contract farmed

the next 12 months will see wheat 150 to 200 compared to 60 to 90. 20 years ago

if the current rate of land entry to non productive land stewardship option continues the uk grain price will be at delivered import price
imho 1million acres of arable land will not be producing in 5 years time
 

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
The effective rent after iacs between 2000 to 2007 was negligible costs were low
but at £80 a tonne average stored to the spring it was hard to make the bank rate in return on working capital
half the farmers gave up or had their farms contract farmed

the next 12 months will see wheat 150 to 200 compared to 60 to 90. 20 years ago

if the current rate of land entry to non productive land stewardship option continues the uk grain price will be at delivered import price
imho 1million acres of arable land will not be producing in 5 years time
Wheat was £130 1993-96
 

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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