Price predictions for the next 12 months

[Feldspar]

The effective rent after iacs between 2000 to 2007 was negligible costs were low
but at £80 a tonne average stored to the spring it was hard to make the bank rate in return on working capital
half the farmers gave up or had their farms contract farmed

the next 12 months will see wheat 150 to 200 compared to 60 to 90. 20 years ago

if the current rate of land entry to non productive land stewardship option continues the uk grain price will be at delivered import price
imho 1million acres of arable land will not be producing in 5 years time

Way it's going I think you may be right on the stewardship land. I bought a few hundred hectares of AB8 seed to plant this year and was told that there had been a number of orders quite a bit bigger than this and that seed was about to run out. I wondered how long this train would take to get rolling. Would seem it's out of the station now. With high commodity prices how there will be a braking effect, but in more ordinary years small farms with unexceptional land will, if they can use a calculator, work out that it's better for them to put it all in stewardship rather than use their local contract farmer to grow ordinary crops which net them a relatively lower amount. Larger farms farmed in hand will find, unless they are exceptional, pretty large tracts (or entire crops within a rotation) that cannot give cropping margins that beat stewardship ones.

 

[ajd132]

Way it's going I think you may be right on the stewardship land. I bought a few hundred hectares of AB8 seed to plant this year and was told that there had been a number of orders quite a bit bigger than this and that seed was about to run out. I wondered how long this train would take to get rolling. Would seem it's out of the station now. With high commodity prices how there will be a braking effect, but in more ordinary years small farms with unexceptional land will, if they can use a calculator, work out that it's better for them to put it all in stewardship rather than use their local contract farmer to grow ordinary crops which net them a relatively lower amount. Larger farms farmed in hand will find, unless they are exceptional, pretty large tracts (or entire crops within a rotation) that cannot give cropping margins that beat stewardship ones.

The return on many break crops is pretty hopeless. I can see some of our contract farms going 1/3rd stewardship Atleast.

 

[Barleymow]

Wonder what unassured milling wheat would make............?

Be very interesting if it's a bad year for milling wheat and you have a good sample it .sell it un assured an follow the truck

 

[CORK]

Way it's going I think you may be right on the stewardship land. I bought a few hundred hectares of AB8 seed to plant this year and was told that there had been a number of orders quite a bit bigger than this and that seed was about to run out. I wondered how long this train would take to get rolling. Would seem it's out of the station now. With high commodity prices how there will be a braking effect, but in more ordinary years small farms with unexceptional land will, if they can use a calculator, work out that it's better for them to put it all in stewardship rather than use their local contract farmer to grow ordinary crops which net them a relatively lower amount. Larger farms farmed in hand will find, unless they are exceptional, pretty large tracts (or entire crops within a rotation) that cannot give cropping margins that beat stewardship ones.

What is the payment per Ha for the stewardship scheme?

 

[Feldspar]

What is the payment per Ha for the stewardship scheme?

540 £/ha. Only works if you can trim or dilute fixed costs though and do the options at scale. We target a profit margin of about 330 £/ha for stewardship. Winter wheat will beat that mostly, OSR used to, spring wheat has recently, spring barley not really for us, oats not, beans definitely not.

 

[CORK]

540 £/ha. Only works if you can trim or dilute fixed costs though and do the options at scale. We target a profit margin of about 330 £/ha for stewardship. Winter wheat will beat that mostly, OSR used to, spring wheat has recently, spring barley not really for us, oats not, beans definitely not.

Thanks, sorry if it was a silly question. I'm asking from the other side of the Irish sea and so am not familiar with it.

Certainly sounds tempting.

 

[yellow belly]

Wheat was £130 1993-96

Pre set aside and area payments with intervention system and higher import duties and weak £

 

[glasshouse]

Pre set aside and area payments with intervention system and higher import duties and weak £

No intervention, just drought