Ready for Brexit?

Highland Mule

Member
Livestock Farmer
Knock up a business plan on your computer this morning. Photoshop some Stobart truck pictures into your plan. Cut and paste terms from local takeaway. Set up shell company for £10. State start up capital as, say, £121million finger in the air. Appoint you and your two collies as directors Email to Chris Grayling and your probably up and away.

Bugger - no collies here. Would a Beltex tup do instead? As he’s of Belgian descent, he might get some international respect.
 

Hereward

Member
Location
Peterborough
Exactly - and the opposite is true too, so if we offer them no tariff trade, my understanding is that we have to (WTO rules) offer it to all other countries.

Then, six months from now, we try and negotiate for new deals with for instance the USA, it’s not going to be easy, is it, when we are already giving them free access to all our market for nowt..

Maybe (to drag this back on track) I need to save up the next five years of inputs...
Maybe just need to stop being so pessimistic, world of opportunity if you look for it.
 

Cowabunga

Member
Location
Ceredigion,Wales
I just carry on as normal.....the world hasn't ended for the last 6000 yrs or so and I don't expect it to end cos of Brexit. It will still get light in the morning and dark in the night . I personally think that the only issue that is facing our Govt is the fact that after March the 29th they are going to have to govern the country which is something they haven't had to do for the last 40 yrs or so cos they have let Brussels do it. Their issue is that they are clueless how to do it so they dream up all sorts of scenarios so they will have plenty to blame if it did go wrong...but I don't think it will !
As long as Thatchers keep brewing then all will be well !

All fine words. Unfortunately 95% rubbish. The UK has been ruling itself. The issue is that it has always used the EU as an excuse for the f**k-ups made by inept UK politicians.
I will probably never vote Tory again after the complete shambles they have made of governing this country since Cameron had a majority. In fact they haven't really been governing, not for over two years, because they are too busy fighting among themselves. With the clown in charge of Labour it should have been so easy to take responsibility and control, running the country smoothly on a prosperous path to the future, yet they manage to f**k it all up with monumentally stupid decisions and infighting.

Yet you still manage to blame the EU! That's crazy blind.
 

fgc325j

Member
It’s the standard Brexiteer response though, isn’t it? Ignore the facts, blame Europe and claim that everything will be grand once we are freed from the tyrany of the “unelected” EU parliament (you know, the one we vote for), then claim that anything else is “Project Fear”.
Yes - we vote the euro MP's in BUT - the show is lead by Juncker and his cronies, whom we did not
directly vote into the job. This country's leader is Theresa May and come next election she knows she
does not stand a chance of winning, that's why she has already announced she won't be leading the
Tory party, she's jumping before the electorate push her!.
 

primmiemoo

Member
Location
Devon
Yes - we vote the euro MP's in BUT - the show is lead by Juncker and his cronies, whom we did not
directly vote into the job. This country's leader is Theresa May and come next election she knows she
does not stand a chance of winning, that's why she has already announced she won't be leading the
Tory party, she's jumping before the electorate push her!.

Junker has only a 5 year term, and the rest have the same term in office. We Brits don't elect our party leaders or ministers directly, either. A high percentage of Brits couldn't be bothered to vote in the elections for MEPs, so it could be said we have the EU structure we deserve.

Instead of collective action as grown ups to sort out the problems of the EU - which, just like the devolved system of government in Britain, continues to be a work in progress - certain individuals and groups chose to lobby, fidget, throw tantrums, and jump up and down throwing their toys out of the playpen, and telling any number of untruths to get their way and run away without a Plan for the future. The rest - Brexit - is history at 1:1 scale.

Must dash. That roll of blue paper towel won't stockpile itself. :)
 

Highland Mule

Member
Livestock Farmer
Yes - we vote the euro MP's in BUT - the show is lead by Juncker and his cronies, whom we did not
directly vote into the job. This country's leader is Theresa May and come next election she knows she
does not stand a chance of winning, that's why she has already announced she won't be leading the
Tory party, she's jumping before the electorate push her!.

51801052_1342677262541456_7150958099291963392_n.jpg
 

Scribus

Member
Location
Central Atlantic
Exactly. They can threaten all they like about preventing imports to the uk, but as much as we need the imports, they NEED to supply them! There will be uproar across Europe if countries and companies are prevented from exporting to the uk. And the things we export are also NEEDED by the eu countries as much as we need to export them.

The big wigs in Brussels are nothing more than scared bullies, who are committed to their hard lined and dictator style cause.

They are bricking it far more than we are I’m sure.....they are the ones who will have a huge hole in their funding!

I rather get the impression that the EU sat back after the result thinking that the UK would never go through with it, so used are they to member governments arranging internal politics to suit the EU, multiple Irish referenda being an obvious example. Since that hasn't happened it finds itself with its trousers down and no plan B of its own. I wouldn't be the only one asking what is going to happen to all the Irish beef and dairy products if there is no trade agreement with the UK, French farmers will be heading to Cherbourg with their gilets jaunes donned and a steely look in their eye just as soon as word of the first lorry load of surplus Kerrygold spreads beyond the port.
 

Scribus

Member
Location
Central Atlantic

One very basic flaw with that diagram and a vital part of a working democracy is that UK MP's can initiate legislation whereas MEP's can only rubber stamp, or not, legislation initiated by commissioners, who are appointed and not directly voted into office. Indeed, the appointment of the commissioners is subject to consultations with the commission president, who himself is unelected by any plebiscite.
 

Scribus

Member
Location
Central Atlantic
Why should the EU have done anything? It was the UK that was leaving, and they were the ones that wanted the change. I don't expect the club pro to find me a new sport to play and pub to drink in when I resign my membership of the golf club.

In spite of what others may say, they can survive and thrive without our input.

Because the UK represents 17% of the total EU economy and is a net consumer of EU goods. The golf cub analogy is both simplistic and invalid.
 

Highland Mule

Member
Livestock Farmer
I'll grant you it's simplistic, but I won't accept it's invalid, and I think that history is proving that the EU agree with me on that one.

To save me looking it up, what's the opposite percentage - what % of the UK trade is with the EU?
 

Scribus

Member
Location
Central Atlantic
I'll grant you it's simplistic, but I won't accept it's invalid, and I think that history is proving that the EU agree with me on that one.

To save me looking it up, what's the opposite percentage - what % of the UK trade is with the EU?

The EU is not about playing golf together, it's about creating a trading bloc and if a member of that bloc withdraws from membership then it reduces the overall clout and economic activity of the bloc as a whole. But anyway, sticking to the golf analogy, if a golf club had 100 members and one resigned it's no big deal, but if 17 left to set up their own little club then there might be a problem, especially if those 17 had generously indulged themselves at the 19th -

In 2017, the rest of the EU sold about £67 billion more to us (UK) in goods and services than we sold to them,


There is an informative summary of the trade situation here - https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/
 

Agrivator

Member
I'll grant you it's simplistic, but I won't accept it's invalid, and I think that history is proving that the EU agree with me on that one.

To save me looking it up, what's the opposite percentage - what % of the UK trade is with the EU?

Does the trade to Rotterdam, which then goes onwards to the rest of the world, count as trade from UK to EU?
If so, it exaggerates our trade to the EU, and diminishes our trade to the rest of the world.
 

Jackov Altraids

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Devon
Why should the EU have done anything? It was the UK that was leaving, and they were the ones that wanted the change. I don't expect the club pro to find me a new sport to play and pub to drink in when I resign my membership of the golf club.

In spite of what others may say, they can survive and thrive without our input.

My understanding was that by triggering article 50, it gave the EU 2 years to offer the leaving country new terms which it could then accept or decline.
Technically, I'm not sure the UK should have done anything but prepare to decline what might be offered.
 

Muck Spreader

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Limousin
One very basic flaw with that diagram and a vital part of a working democracy is that UK MP's can initiate legislation whereas MEP's can only rubber stamp, or not, legislation initiated by commissioners, who are appointed and not directly voted into office. Indeed, the appointment of the commissioners is subject to consultations with the commission president, who himself is unelected by any plebiscite.

That's not entirely true. Parliament members can propose legislation to the Commission, but only the Commission can formally propose it to the Council and Parliament. And the Commissioners are voted in (probably approve or rejected is a better term) by the MEP's. However, this is done as a whole Commission, not by individual Commissioners.
 

Hfd Cattle

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Hereford
All fine words. Unfortunately 95% rubbish. The UK has been ruling itself. The issue is that it has always used the EU as an excuse for the fudge-ups made by inept UK politicians.
I will probably never vote Tory again after the complete shambles they have made of governing this country since Cameron had a majority. In fact they haven't really been governing, not for over two years, because they are too busy fighting among themselves. With the clown in charge of Labour it should have been so easy to take responsibility and control, running the country smoothly on a prosperous path to the future, yet they manage to fudge it all up with monumentally stupid decisions and infighting.

Yet you still manage to blame the EU! That's crazy blind.
Matter of personal opinion....obviously we disagree on these points but I suppose on others we will agree.....I'm not necessarily blaming the EU but I am making a point that the Govt hide behind them !
 
On R4 this morning they ran a piece about the tender process for 'ECMT international haulage permits', which will be required by UK hauliers to operate in the EU after Brexit.
- According to the RHA only 10% of applicants were granted permits by the EU.

So, it looks like this will be the preferred method the EU will use to threaten an embargo / create a 'restriction of trade' on the UK, to 'focus government attention' on an outcome that suits the EU.
Depth charges at the ready, It's the 'Battle for the Atlantic' all over again.

Without turning this thread into a Brexit bitch-fest, what practical measures can be taken in advance to prevent serious disruption to farming operations in the UK, if (when?) the political dispute starts to heat up / escalate this summer ?

I'm thinking along the lines of:

Agchem imports - stockpile pre Brexit, 1 season, 2 seasons, 3...
Ditto vet and med etc.
Collapse in barley exports to Iberia - plant something other than spring barley?
Collapse of lamb export demand?
'Tit for tat' import ban on French maize etc?
Exodus / banning of foreign farm labour?
Availability of combine spares (etc) within X days of breakdown - contingency fund to hire in 'alternatives'.
Nitrogen fert - no action, suitable domestic and Ukrainian etc supply.
Implications to cash flow / ability to trade / willingness of lender to support agri-business, or sell us out?

What would you add to the list?
I am ready for whatever happens
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

  • 0 %

    Votes: 79 42.5%
  • Up to 25%

    Votes: 65 34.9%
  • 25-50%

    Votes: 30 16.1%
  • 50-75%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 75-100%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

    Votes: 6 3.2%

Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

  • 1,287
  • 1
As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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