Rhiza contour yield predictions

[Clive]

Anyone else thats using the Rhiza contour SAR system had yield predictions yet

Got our OSR predictions today and apparently I'm going to average 3.95t/ha some fields higher some lower but reasonably consistent

no wheat predictions until GS 32 though


anyone want to share their OSR predictions ? it's going to be interesting to see how close to reality these early estimates end up !

 

[Feldspar]

Anyone else thats using the Rhiza contour SAR system had yield predictions yet

Got our OSR predictions today and apparently I'm going to average 3.95t/ha

no wheat predictions until GS 32 though


anyone want to share their OSR predictions ? it's going to be interesting to see how close to reality these early estimates end up !

I would love to understand how they work this out. Not because I'm sceptical, but because I'm interested.

 

[Clive]

I would love to understand how they work this out. Not because I'm sceptical, but because I'm interested.

lets ask them ? @Rhiza-UK ?


apparently in test last year the early predictions were pretty dam close to reality

Not sure if I'm disappointed in knowing as there is always hope of a 5t crop until to know better at harvest !!! but I guess that given a spend of just £105/ac I should be happy i have a profitable crop predicted

time will tell I guess but this might actually take the lottery fun out of farming !

 

[Lexion1000]

Surely It can’t be much better than a guess around now, not much better than just looking at the crop.. the weather from now until the end of June decides the yield in my experience.

 

[Clive]

Surely It can’t be much better than a guess around now, not much better than just looking at the crop.. the weather from now until the end of June decides the yield in my experience.

i think there is a lot more science and trial work behind it than a guess, as I say it was claimed to be spooky accurate last year

I think it uses total biomass (3d as SAR generated) and GAI / LAI to work it out but i'm sure Rhiza will explain better than me !


estimates are constantly updated as situation and weather changes - so I can look forward to seeing my predictions falling every day when we hit a dry spell I guess !

 

[Lexion1000]

i think there is a lot more science and trial work behind it that a guess, as I say it was claimed to be spooky accurate last year

I think it uses total biomass (3d as SAR generated) and GAI / LAI to work it out but i'm sure Rhiza will explain better than me !

I’d be very happy to be proved wrong because it would be a great tool. It just seems to me that every year yield depends on what solar radiation we receive from about now and whether you get those crucial showers at the right time.

 

[Clive]

I’d be very happy to be proved wrong because it would be a great tool. It just seems to me that every year yield depends on what solar radiation we receive from about now and whether you get those crucial showers at the right time.

this is the begins of a brave new world of data based IQ I guess - with stuff like you mention above modelled on averages and constantly adjusted as actual data comes in

we are going to see it in many aspects of production and increasingly it will make decision for us

Ag space Contour is currently showing me growth stage of individual fields which is driving out T1 timing decision and in what order fields will be treated over the next week


it's the first genuinely useful use of PF and data that i've seen and seems genuinely innovative and a step forward, something thats been rare in UK ag for a while IMO

all thats said the proof will come at harvest of course

 

[Lexion1000]

this is the begins of a brave new world of data based IQ I guess - with stuff like you mention above modelled on averages and constantly adjusted as actual data comes in

we are going to see it in many aspects of production and increasingly it will make decision for us

Ag space Contour is currently showing me growth stage of individual fields which is driving out T1 timing decision and in what order fields will be treated over the next week


it's the first genuinely useful use of PF and data that i've seen and seems genuinely innovative and a step forward, something thats been rare in UK ag for a while IMO

all thats said the proof will come at harvest of course

It would be very interesting to see data (if there is any) from some years that were slight anomalies, 2012 for instance everything looked fantastic until around now and then went on to be abysmal. Or 2015 where everything seemed pretty good around now the went on to be unbelievably good. It would have been very useful to be a step ahead in those years especially when it came to marketing.

 

[Grass And Grain]

I'm using contour for first time this year.

I haven't got anything beneficial from it as yet. Am I missing something?

I've got a pretty coloured map that shows crop biomass/reflectivity type info. I know that info anyway, as I can see the good and bad areas from the sprayer seat and from past experience.

I manually vary my N applications based on what my eyes tell me when I'm spreading (probably not as good as an automated system, but I think beneficial).

How can we practically use the contour information going forward?

 

[Grass And Grain]

To add to my post above...

This year, it is the dryer lighter areas of the field which are looking the best and wetter heavier parts of field which are thinner and haven't done quite so well in building biomass.

In a dy year, it is the other way round.

 

[Steevo]

this is the begins of a brave new world of data based IQ I guess - with stuff like you mention above modelled on averages and constantly adjusted as actual data comes in

we are going to see it in many aspects of production and increasingly it will make decision for us

Ag space Contour is currently showing me growth stage of individual fields which is driving out T1 timing decision and in what order fields will be treated over the next week


it's the first genuinely useful use of PF and data that i've seen and seems genuinely innovative and a step forward, something thats been rare in UK ag for a while IMO

all thats said the proof will come at harvest of course

That could be very interesting indeed if it stays consistent and doesn’t change hugely.

The ability to make your own trails, and know what difference they have made to yield several months before harvest is handy.

Do they update the yield data every few weeks?

 

[PSQ]

I have to say I’m not overly impressed with the Contour software. It’s got the ‘new and clunky’ feel about it, and it doesn’t offer any of the functionality of the older Toolbox system.

For example, when setting up the cropping it only gives an option to select ‘winter wheat’. I’m told Contour imports cropping choice from Toolbox, so you might as well just use Toolbox. Can you actually do anything with the NDVI’s in Contour, like make up a Nitrogen plan?

 

[Horncastlefarm]

Anyone else thats using the Rhiza contour SAR system had yield predictions yet

Got our OSR predictions today and apparently I'm going to average 3.95t/ha some fields higher some lower but reasonably consistent

no wheat predictions until GS 32 though


anyone want to share their OSR predictions ? it's going to be interesting to see how close to reality these early estimates end up !

Can’t seem to see ours yet. Where do you look for it?

 

[Clive]

Can’t seem to see ours yet. Where do you look for it?

it just appeared under maps on Friday here

 

[Clive]

I have to say I’m not overly impressed with the Contour software. It’s got the ‘new and clunky’ feel about it, and it doesn’t offer any of the functionality of the older Toolbox system.

For example, when setting up the cropping it only gives an option to select ‘winter wheat’. I’m told Contour imports cropping choice from Toolbox, so you might as well just use Toolbox. Can you actually do anything with the NDVI’s in Contour, like make up a Nitrogen plan?

I guess like all software it has to evolve, if you had ever been involved designing or creating software you would understand its not as simple as it may seem and usually takes a few attempts to get right

I prefer the interface but I agree art the more it lacks the functionality of toolbox - I expect that will change in later versions however to avoid need for 2 bits of software

 

[Horncastlefarm]

I will have to keep an eye out on ours. I’ve dropped them an email to see if there is a phased roll out of it. I’m sure it will get better with time.

 

[Clive]

I'm using contour for first time this year.

I haven't got anything beneficial from it as yet. Am I missing something?

I've got a pretty coloured map that shows crop biomass/reflectivity type info. I know that info anyway, as I can see the good and bad areas from the sprayer seat and from past experience.

I manually vary my N applications based on what my eyes tell me when I'm spreading (probably not as good as an automated system, but I think beneficial).

How can we practically use the contour information going forward?

I'm finding the GS mapping useful to prioritise application and vra N of course is now a lot more joined up with biomass SAR data

if these yield predictions prove accurate it may help determine spend between now and harvest on a field by field basis ?? but I am sceptical on how accurate it will be

 

[Rhiza-UK]

Hi @Feldspar @Clive @JWWellburnagri @Lexion1000 @PSQ @Steevo @Grass And Grain

Apologies for the late reply. To answer a few of the queries raised...

The yield predictions are based on the LAI and crop biomass which is measured from SAR. This provides a more accurate 3d image of the crop, in comparison to NDVI which is a top-down 2d image. Think of walking into the field and feeling how much crop is there with your hands, rather than looking and guessing with your eyes.
The crop models update daily using hyperlocal weather models which are geo-located to the centre point of your farm, and yield predictions will change based on solar radiation levels and rainfall for your location. We have modelled the effect of weather changes (solar radiation, temperature, water stress, etc.) on biomass production to take into account years such as 2012 and 2015. Within Contour there is a 20 day average as well as the prediction for today, which gives an indication of the trend based on current weather patterns. In terms of accuracy, over 310 fields we were within 5% on the overall winter wheat yield predictions.

With regards to uses for the data, we want Contour to help aid decision making on all farms, not just those set up for precision farming and variable rate applications. This could be using the GAI readings to measure how much nitrogen has been taken up by the crop early on in the season (especially useful when using manures or sludge). Biomass readings to help with PGR decisions. Growth stage predictions to help plan spray timings and to alert to key growth stages. NDVI data to show variation within fields, crop health and highlight problem areas. Hyperlocal weather data to help with logistically planning, including canopy wetness and wind speed for spraying and soil temperatures for drilling.

This is still very early days for Contour so any feedback on usability and the features which are added is always welcomed. It certainly doesn't have all the functionality of the Toolbox at the moment, however we weren't able to add the precision weather data and crop models into the Toolbox and we felt these were key features for all growers. The functionality you currently find in the Toolbox is in development for Contour plus more.

@PSQ - the only crop in your Toolbox account is winter wheat, which is why this is the only option available in Contour.

Due to IP and commercial reasons at the moment I can't share too much data. There will be a peer reviewed study which will be published in due course.

If you've got any questions about using the software or to provide feedback, feel free to call, DM or email us at [email protected]

Best regards
Tom

P.S. We are extending the free trial until the end of 2018, so if you haven't already, sign up here - http://contour.Rhiza-UK.com/

 

[Rhiza-UK]

We have also got some tutorial videos for Contour and SeeCrop on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/IPFUK/featured

 

[Jim t]

Not sure if I'm disappointed in knowing as there is always hope of a 5t crop until to know better at harvest !!! but I guess that given a spend of just £105/ac I should be happy i have a profitable crop predicted


Clive, your cost of £105/acre, is that using homesaved seed off the pile ?